Regional Security in the South Caucasus: The Role of NATO Svante E. Cornell Roger N. McDermott William O’Malley Vladimir Socor S. Frederick Starr Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies The Johns Hopkins University Regional Security in the South Caucasus: The Role of NATO Svante E. Cornell Roger N. McDermott William D. O’Malley Vladimir Socor S. Frederick Starr © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies The Johns Hopkins University Tel.: 1 202 663 7723 “Regional Security in the South Caucasus: The Role of NATO” is a Policy Paper produced by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. It is co-authored by Svante E. Cornell, Roger McDermott, William O’Malley, Vladimir Socor, and S. Frederick Starr. © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute 2004 ISBN: Printed in the United States of America Distributed in North America by: The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel. +1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785 E-mail: [email protected] Distributed in Europe by: The Silk Road Studies Program Uppsala University Box 514, SE-75120 Uppsala Sweden Tel. +46-18-471-2217; Fax. +46-18-106397 E-mail: [email protected] 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary .........................................................................................v I. Why Should We be Concerned Over Multilateral Security and the South Caucasus? ....................................................................................................... 1 II. The Security Deficit in the South Caucasus...............................................4 Unresolved Conflicts....................................................................................................................................... 6 Political Violence ............................................................................................................................................. 9 Transnational Threats ....................................................................................................................................11 Geopolitical Competition................................................................................................................................12 The Need for Security....................................................................................................................................13 III. Geopolitical Interests and Multilateral Security ............................................16 Russian Interests.............................................................................................................................................16 Iranian Interests..............................................................................................................................................18 Turkish Interests.............................................................................................................................................19 Euro-Atlantic Interests.................................................................................................................................20 Multilateral Security Arrangements: NATO as the Only Feasible Option..........................................22 IV. The Military Situation in the South Caucasus...............................................34 Armenia............................................................................................................................................................36 Azerbaijan.......................................................................................................................................................42 Georgia............................................................................................................................................................49 V. Western Security Assistance to the States of the South Caucasus......................55 Armenia............................................................................................................................................................55 Azerbaijan........................................................................................................................................................57 Georgia............................................................................................................................................................60 Conclusion.......................................................................................................................................................64 VI. The Role of Partnership for Peace in the South Caucasus............................... 66 Armenia...........................................................................................................................................................68 Azerbaijan.......................................................................................................................................................70 Georgia.............................................................................................................................................................73 Conclusion.......................................................................................................................................................76 VII. Recommendations for NATO .................................................................. 77 From Anchoring to Integration ....................................................................................................................78 Door Open also to Armenia..........................................................................................................................79 Concrete Steps................................................................................................................................................82 iv Regional Security in the South Caucasus: The Role of NATO VIII. Recommendations for the South Caucasus States....................................... 86 Joint Steps.......................................................................................................................................................86 Azerbaijan.......................................................................................................................................................88 Georgia.............................................................................................................................................................91 Developing the Niche capabilities of the South Caucasus Militaries.....................................................94 Appendix: The Baltic Defense College.............................................................. 96 Author Biographies........................................................................................ 99 iv Regional Security in the South Caucasus: The Role of NATO v Executive Summary Unresolved security issues in the South Caucasus have a direct and negative impact on the security interests of NATO and the U.S. They impede access to Central Asia and Afghanistan, threaten the security of needed energy resources as well as access to friendly allies in the Wider Middle East, and create an environment of instability that Russia can both exploit and perpetuate. Unresolved security issues there exercise a decisive and adverse effect on democratic reform, market-based development, and overall prosperity across the South Caucasus. Continuing shortfalls in these areas threaten to turn the region into a haven for transnational organized crime and even terrorism. This paper argues that the national security interests of NATO and its members in the South Caucasus, especially concerning the war on terrorism, NATO’s obligations in Central Asia and Afghanistan, and the role of the Alliance in the Wider Middle East, have grown to such a degree that its interests would be significantly affected negatively by instability and unrest in the South Caucasus. The individual and collective interests of NATO members therefore suggest that a larger role of the Alliance in strengthening the security of the South Caucasus is warranted. This paper does not propose the inclusion of South Caucasus countries as NATO members, which is unlikely under any circumstances for many years. But it nonetheless considers NATO to be the sine qua non for security in the South Caucasus. It argues that the most promising, and indeed sole, means of redressing the “security deficit” in the South Caucasus is through the gradual extension of the widest possible range of NATO programs into the area. In short, it shifts the focus from the question of “To Be or Not To Be?” with respect to NATO membership to one of how to select, develop, and compound NATO programs that will, together and increasingly over time, transform the regional security picture overall. By this point the region will also have evolved to a point at, or near, the doorstep of both NATO and the EU. This paper therefore suggests that NATO, in its June 2004 Istanbul summit, asserts that the security of the countries of the South Caucasus is an integral part of the Euro-Atlantic security architecture. Specific NATO initiatives holding the most promise for enhancing South Caucasus security include the following: v vi Regional Security in the South Caucasus: