Manor Expressway Toll Road Project Investment Grade Traffic and Toll Revenue Study Final Report May 16, 2011 Manor Expressway Toll Road Project Investment Grade Traffic and Toll Revenue Study Final Report Prepared for: Central Texas Regional Mobility Authority by: May 16, 2011 Final Report Manor Expressway Traffic and Toll Revenue Study TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ ES-1 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................. 1-1 1.1 Manor Expressway Project ........................................................................................................ 1-1 1.2 Study Description ....................................................................................................................... 1-2 1.3 Consultant Team........................................................................................................................ 1-2 1.4 Organization of the Report ......................................................................................................... 1-2 2 EXISTING TRAVEL PATTERNS ........................................................................................................ 2-1 2.1 Historical Traffic Counts ............................................................................................................. 2-1 2.1.1 2008 Traffic Count Data ................................................................................................... 2-2 2.1.2 2010 Traffic Count Data ................................................................................................. 2-13 2.1.3 Travel Time / Delay Data ............................................................................................... 2-20 Corridor 1 ....................................................................................................................... 2-22 Corridor 2 ....................................................................................................................... 2-23 Corridor 3 ....................................................................................................................... 2-23 Corridor 4 ....................................................................................................................... 2-24 2.1.4 Origin-Destination (O/D) Survey .................................................................................... 2-39 2.1.4.1 Roadside Vehicle Intercept O/D Survey............................................................... 2-39 2.1.4.2 Video License Plate Capture and Mail-Back O/D Survey .................................... 2-41 2.1.4.3 Summary of Motorists O/D Survey Data .............................................................. 2-41 Trip Generation Type ........................................................................................... 2-43 Trip Purpose ......................................................................................................... 2-43 Trip Frequency ..................................................................................................... 2-44 Vehicle Occupancy ............................................................................................... 2-44 Trips Using US 290E ............................................................................................ 2-45 2.1.5 Turning Movement Counts ............................................................................................. 2-45 2.1.6 Traffic Signals ................................................................................................................ 2-50 3 MODELING METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................ 3-1 3.1 Methodology and Enhancements .............................................................................................. 3-1 3.1.1 Revised Zonal Structure .................................................................................................. 3-2 3.1.2 Network Enhancements ................................................................................................... 3-3 3.1.3 Trip Table Development ................................................................................................... 3-4 3.1.3.1 Preparation of 2008 Trip Tables ............................................................................ 3-4 3.1.3.2 Creation of Time-of-Day (TOD) Trip Tables .......................................................... 3-4 3.1.3.3 Development of Future Trip Tables ....................................................................... 3-5 3.2 Model Calibration ....................................................................................................................... 3-6 3.2.1 Regional Model Assignment Review ............................................................................... 3-6 3.2.2 Corridor Model Calibration ............................................................................................... 3-8 3.2.2.1 Assignment Calibration .......................................................................................... 3-8 3.2.2.2 Calibration of Network Speeds ............................................................................ 3-12 3.2.2.3 License Plate Origin/Destination Survey ............................................................. 3-12 3.2.2.4 Turning Movement Counts................................................................................... 3-13 3.3 Toll Diversion Methodology ..................................................................................................... 3-15 3.3.1 Stated Preference Survey .............................................................................................. 3-15 3.3.2 Toll Diversion Model Development ................................................................................ 3-16 3.3.3 Toll Diversion Model Parameters ................................................................................... 3-17 4 SOCIOECONOMIC FORECASTS ...................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Population .................................................................................................................................. 4-1 4.2 Employment ............................................................................................................................... 4-8 4.3 Median Household Income ...................................................................................................... 4-11 i Final Report Manor Expressway Traffic and Toll Revenue Study 4.4 Austin Economic Downturn and Recovery .............................................................................. 4-15 4.5 Recent Austin Toll Transaction Trends.................................................................................... 4-18 5 BACKGROUND HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENTS ................................................................................. 5-1 5.1 Toll Roads .................................................................................................................................. 5-4 5.2 Transit Improvements ................................................................................................................ 5-4 6 Manor Expressway TOLL ROAD PROJECT .................................................................................... 6-1 6.1 Project Description ..................................................................................................................... 6-1 6.2 Toll Collection Plan .................................................................................................................... 6-1 6.2.1 Toll Rates ......................................................................................................................... 6-4 6.2.2 Toll Escalation .................................................................................................................. 6-6 7 TRAFFIC FORECASTS ...................................................................................................................... 7-1 7.1 Daily Toll Transactions .............................................................................................................. 7-1 7.2 Corridor Diversion Screen Line Analysis ................................................................................. 7-12 8 TOLL REVENUE ESTIMATES ........................................................................................................... 8-1 8.1 Toll Revenue Estimation Assumptions ...................................................................................... 8-1 8.1.1 Truck Axle Factors ........................................................................................................... 8-1 8.1.2 Annual Toll Revenue Days Estimation............................................................................. 8-1 8.1.3 “Ramp-Up” Factors .......................................................................................................... 8-2 8.1.4 Toll Evasion Factors......................................................................................................... 8-2 8.1.5 Transponder and Video Tolling Assumptions .................................................................. 8-3 8.1.6 Video Toll Fee Revenue Assumption..............................................................................