The Making of a of Making The The Making of a Blue Revolution Blue in Bangladesh Enablers, Impacts, and the Path Ahead in Bangladesh for Aquaculture Path Ahead for Aquaculture for Ahead Path Enablers, Impacts, and the Edited by & Shahidur Rashid Rashid Rashid Zhang and Xiaobo Zhang About IFPRI The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), established in 1975, provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce pov- erty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI’s strategic research aims to fos- ter a climate-resilient and sustainable food supply; promote healthy diets and nutrition for all; build inclusive and efficient markets, trade systems, and food industries; transform agricultural and rural economies; and strengthen institutions and governance. Gender is integrated in all the Institute’s work. Partnerships, communications, capacity strengthening, and data and knowl- edge management are essential components to translate IFPRI’s research from action to impact. The Institute’s regional and country programs play a critical role in responding to demand for food policy research and in delivering holis- tic support for country-led development. IFPRI collaborates with partners around the world. About IFPRI’s Peer Review Process IFPRI books are policy-relevant publications based on original and innova- tive research conducted at IFPRI. All manuscripts submitted for publica- tion as IFPRI books undergo an extensive review procedure that is managed by IFPRI’s Publications Review Committee (PRC). Upon submission to the PRC, the manuscript is reviewed by a PRC member. Once the manuscript is considered ready for external review, the PRC submits it to at least two exter- nal reviewers who are chosen for their familiarity with the subject matter and the country setting. Upon receipt of these blind external peer reviews, the PRC provides the author with an editorial decision and, when necessary, instructions for revision based on the external reviews. The PRC reassesses the revised manuscript and makes a recommendation regarding publication to the director general of IFPRI. With the director general’s approval, the manu- script enters the editorial and production phase to become an IFPRI book. The Making of a Blue Revolution in Bangladesh Enablers, Impacts, and the Path Ahead for Aquaculture Edited by Shahidur Rashid and Xiaobo Zhang A Peer-Reviewed Publication International Food Policy Research Institute Washington, DC Copyright © 2019 International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). This publication is licensed for use under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0). Subject to attribution, you are free to share (copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format), adapt (remix, transform, and build upon the material) for any purpose, even commercially. Third-party content: The International Food Policy Research Institute does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. The International Food Policy Research Institute therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. Recommended citation: Rashid, S., and X. Zhang, eds. 2019. The Making of a Blue Revolution in Bangladesh: Enablers, Impacts, and the Path Ahead for Aquaculture. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896293618. This is a peer-reviewed publication. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and are not necessarily representative of or endorsed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on the maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by IFPRI. International Food Policy Research Institute, 1201 Eye Street, NW, 12th floor, Washington, DC 20005 USA, Telephone: +1-202-862-5600, www.ifpri.org ISBN: 978-0-89629-361-8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896293618 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data may be found on page vi. CONTENTS Tables and Figures vii Abbreviations and Acronyms xi Foreword xiii Acknowledgments xv Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Shahidur Rashid Chapter 2 Sector Overview and Study Design 19 Shahidur Rashid, Kaikaus Ahmad, and Gracie Rosenbach Chapter 3 Value Chain Transformation 31 Ricardo Hernandez, Ben Belton, Thomas Reardon, Chaoran Hu, Xiaobo Zhang, and Akhter Ahmed Chapter 4 Cluster-Based Aquaculture Growth 57 Xiaobo Zhang, Qingqing Chen, and Peixun Fang Chapter 5 Welfare and Poverty Impacts of Aquaculture Growth 77 Shahidur Rashid, Nicholas Minot, and Solomon Lemma Chapter 6 Future Scenarios (Projections to 2050) 103 Paul Dorosh and Andrew Comstock Chapter 7 Summary and Implications 143 Shahidur Rashid and Xiaobo Zhang Authors 153 Index 155 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Rashid, Shahidur, editor. | Zhang, Xiaobo, 1966– editor. Title: The making of a blue revolution in Bangladesh : enablers, impacts, and the path ahead for aquaculture / edited by Shahidur Rashid and Xiaobo Zhang. Description: Washington, DC : International Food Policy Research Institute, 2019. | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2019019949 (print) | LCCN 2019981222 (ebook) | ISBN 9780896293618 (paperback) | ISBN 9780896293625 (ebook other) Subjects: LCSH: Sustainable aquaculture—Bangladesh. | Aquaculture— Environmental aspects—Bangladesh. | Aquaculture—Social aspects— Bangladesh. | Sustainable fisheries—Bangladesh. Classification: LCC SH136.S88 M35 2019 (print) | LCC SH136.S88 (ebook) | DDC 639.8028/6095492—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019019949 LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019981222 Cover Design: Jason Chow Project Manager: John Whitehead, IFPRI Book Layout: BookMatters TABLES AND FIGURES Tables 1.1 Bangladesh: Historical production trends (thousand metric tons) 8 1.2 Bangladesh: Historical fish consumption trends 9 1.3 Bangladesh: Historical fish price trends 10 1.A1 Local, common English, and scientific fish names of selected varieties 17 2.1 Area and production of fish in Bangladesh, 2014–2015 21 2.2 Zones and sampled districts 27 3.1 Definitions of actor size, by actor type 33 3.2 Zone characteristics 34 3.3 Structural change in hatchery clusters over 10 years 37 3.4 Structural change in feed mill clusters over 10 years 38 3.5 Structural change in feed dealer clusters over 10 years 39 3.6 Structural change in fish farmer clusters over 10 years 40 3.7 Landholdings and tenancy by year and zone 41 3.8 Factor productivity in 2013 42 3.9 Structural change in rural fish trader clusters over 10 years 42 3.10 Disposal of fish farm harvest by final user type, 2013 46 3.11 Disposal of fish farm harvest by final user location, 2013 47 3.12 Aquaculture production by fish category, 2008 and 2013 50 3.13 Fish farm capital-to-labor ratio by year and zone 53 4.1 The spatial linkage of the fish supply chain 62 vii viii TABLES AND FIGURES 4.2 Principal component analysis 63 4.3 Clustering measures at the district level, 2003, 2008, and 2013 63 4.4 Fish farmers’ specialization in output and adoption of modern inputs, 2008 and 2013 66 4.5 OLS estimates on the relationship between clustering and output specialization 68 4.6 Regressions on the relationship between clustering and adoption of modern inputs 69 4.7 Horizontal cooperation among fish traders and feed dealers, 2013 70 4.8 Probit regressions on the relationship between clustering and cooperation 72 4.9 Probit regressions on the relationship between clustering and different types of cooperative behaviors 74 5.1 Trends in fish production in Bangladesh, 1983/1984– 2012/2013 80 5.2 Changes in annual per capita fish consumption (kilograms per person per year) in Bangladesh, 2000–2010 82 5.3 Net positions of households in aquaculture fish in Bangladesh 92 5.4 Impacts of aquaculture growth on household income 94 5.5 Impacts of aquaculture growth on poverty reduction 96 6.1 Bangladesh: Expenditure elasticities by fish production system (QUAIDS model estimates) 109 6.2 Bangladesh: Econometric estimates of price elasticities of demand for fish, 2000, 2005, and 2010 110 6.3 Model variables and parameters 113 6.4 Model simulation assumptions for fish productivity growth 115 6.5 Model simulation assumptions for population and income growth 116 6.6 Bangladesh fish production and prices: Simulation results 116 6.7 Bangladesh fish consumption: Simulation results (per capita consumption) 118 6.A1 Demographic variables used in the econometric estimation of household demand parameters, 2000, 2005, and 2010 126 TABLES AND FIGURES ix 6.A2 Share and price variables: Descriptive statistics, 2000, 2005, and 2010 128 6.A3 Bangladesh fish exports, 2000–2014 (thousand metric tons) 130 6.A4 Scientific names for all fish by category 130 6.A5 Own-price elasticity estimates using the Linear Expenditure System (LES) 131 6.A6 Cross-price elasticity estimates using the Linear Expenditure System (LES) 132 6.A6a Alternative specifications of expenditure elasticity parameters, 2000, 2005, and 2010 133 6.A6b Alternative specifications of price elasticity parameters, 2000, 2005,