Status and Change of the Cryosphere in the Extended Hindu Kush Himalaya 7 Region Coordinating Lead Authors Tobias Bolch, Institut für Geographie, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, e-mail: [email protected] Joseph M. Shea, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal, Geography Program, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, Canada, and Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada, e-mail: [email protected] (corresponding author) Shiyin Liu, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-security, Yunnan University, Kunming, China, e-mail: [email protected] Lead Authors Farooq M. Azam, Indian Institute of Technology, Indore, India, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, India, e-mail: [email protected] Yang Gao, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, e-mail: [email protected] Stephan Gruber, Geography and Environmental Studies, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada, e-mail: [email protected] Walter W. Immerzeel, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal, Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands, e-mail: [email protected] Anil Kulkarni, Divecha Center for Climate Change, Centre for Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India, e-mail: [email protected] Huilin Li, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China, e-mail: [email protected] Adnan A. Tahir, Department of Environmental Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad (CUI)–Abbottabad Campus, Abbottabad, Pakistan, e-mail: [email protected] Guoqing Zhang, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, e-mail: [email protected] Yinsheng Zhang, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, e-mail: [email protected] Contributing Authors Argha Bannerjee, Indian Institute of Science Education Research, Pune, India, e-mail: [email protected] Etienne Berthier, CNRS, LEGOS, University of Toulouse, e-mail: [email protected] Fanny Brun, CNRS, LEGOS, University of Toulouse, Universite Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France, e-mail: [email protected] Andreas Kääb, Department of Geosciences, Oslo University, Oslo, Norway, e-mail: [email protected] Phillip Kraaijenbrink, Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands, e-mail: [email protected] Geir Moholdt, Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø, Norway, e-mail: [email protected] Lindsey Nicholson, Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria, e-mail: [email protected] Nicholas Pepin, Department of Geography, University of Portsmouth, UK, e-mail: [email protected] Adina Racoviteanu, Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, UK, e-mail: [email protected] Electronic supplementary material The online version of this chapter (https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319- 92288-1_7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. © ICIMOD, The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2019 209 P. Wester et al. (eds.), The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1_7 210 T. Bolch et al. Review Editor Koji Fujita, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan, e-mail: [email protected] Corresponding Author Joseph M. Shea, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal, Geography Program, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, Canada, and Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada, e-mail: [email protected] Contents Electronic supplementary material............................................................................................................ 209 Chapter Overview........................................................................................................................................ 211 7.1 Situating the Cryosphere in the Hindu Kush Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau-Pamir Region .................................................................................................. 213 7.1.1 Defining the Extended HKH Region from a Cryosphere Perspective...................................... 213 7.1.2 Regional Climate ........................................................................................................................ 214 7.2 Snow ..................................................................................................................................................... 215 7.2.1 Monitoring of Snow ................................................................................................................... 215 7.2.2 Observed Changes...................................................................................................................... 217 7.2.3 Projected Changes ...................................................................................................................... 219 7.2.4 Recommendations....................................................................................................................... 220 7.3 Glaciers ................................................................................................................................................ 220 7.3.1 Measuring Glacier Change......................................................................................................... 220 7.3.2 Observed Changes...................................................................................................................... 223 7.3.3 Glacier Projections...................................................................................................................... 229 7.3.4 Recommendations....................................................................................................................... 232 7.4 Glacial Lakes....................................................................................................................................... 233 7.4.1 Occurrence .................................................................................................................................. 233 7.4.2 Observed Change........................................................................................................................ 233 7.4.3 Projections .................................................................................................................................. 234 7.4.4 Recommendations....................................................................................................................... 235 7.5 Permafrost ........................................................................................................................................... 235 7.5.1 Occurrence .................................................................................................................................. 236 7.5.2 Observed Change........................................................................................................................ 237 7.5.3 Projections .................................................................................................................................. 238 7.5.4 Recommendations....................................................................................................................... 238 7.6 River and Lake Ice............................................................................................................................. 238 7.6.1 Occurrence .................................................................................................................................. 238 7.6.2 Observed Change and Projections ............................................................................................. 239 7.6.3 Recommendations....................................................................................................................... 239 7.7 Cryosphere and Water Resources .................................................................................................... 239 7.7.1 Observations ............................................................................................................................... 240 7.7.2 Projections of Cryospheric and Hydrological Change .............................................................. 241 7.7.3 Recommendations....................................................................................................................... 243 7.8 Policy Relevance.................................................................................................................................. 243 References ..................................................................................................................................................... 245 7 Status and Change of the Cryosphere … 211 Chapter Overview Key Findings Policy Messages 1. The cryosphere—snow, ice, and permafrost—is 1. To reduce and slow cryospheric change, inter- an important part of the water supply in the national agreements must mitigate climate extended Hindu Kush Himalaya region. change through emission reductions. Lower Observed and projected changes in the cryo- emission pathways will reduce overall cryospheric sphere will affect the timing and magnitude of change and reduce secondary impacts on water streamflows across the