Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized World Bank Group Engagement in Situations of Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized World Bank Group Engagement in Situations of Fragility, Conflict, and Violence An Independent Evaluation © 2016 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/24915 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. ii Contents ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................................................................. V ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ....................................................................................................................... VII OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................................................ IX MANAGEMENT RESPONSE ............................................................................................................. XIV MANAGEMENT ACTION RECORD ................................................................................................. XXIII CHAIRPERSON’S SUMMARY: COMMITTEE ON DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVNESS .................. XXXII 1. EVALUATION CONTEXT AND MAIN FINDINGS ..................................................................... 1 Evaluation Objectives and Coverage ........................................................................................................................ 1 Main Findings ............................................................................................................................................................ 5 Report Structure ........................................................................................................................................................ 9 2. WORLD BANK GROUP STRATEGIC ENGAGEMENT .......................................................... 11 Evolution of World Bank Group Thinking ................................................................................................................ 11 Definitions and Measurements of Fragility .............................................................................................................. 13 World Bank Group Strategic Approach ................................................................................................................... 16 World Bank Group Engagement Areas ................................................................................................................... 21 3. SUBNATIONAL CONFLICTS.................................................................................................. 32 Conflicts Compared ................................................................................................................................................. 33 World Bank Group Strategies ................................................................................................................................. 33 World Bank Group Instruments ............................................................................................................................... 36 Assessment ............................................................................................................................................................. 43 Conclusions and Lessons ....................................................................................................................................... 46 References .............................................................................................................................................................. 48 4. VIOLENCE RELATED TO CRIME AND DRUG TRADE ......................................................... 50 World Bank Group Response ................................................................................................................................. 51 Assessment ............................................................................................................................................................. 55 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................. 61 References .............................................................................................................................................................. 63 5. FAILURE OF GOVERNANCE AND STATE LEGITIMACY ..................................................... 65 World Bank Group Response ................................................................................................................................. 65 Assessment ............................................................................................................................................................. 68 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................. 72 References .............................................................................................................................................................. 73 6. EXTERNALLY IMPOSED FRAGILITY .................................................................................... 75 World Bank Group Response ................................................................................................................................. 79 Assessment ............................................................................................................................................................. 81 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................. 83 7. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................ 87 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................. 87 Recommendations .................................................................................................................................................. 92 iii CONTENTS Boxes Box 1.1. IEG Evaluation of World Bank Group Assistance to Low-Income Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (2014): Main Findings and Recommendations ............................................................................ 3 Box 2.1. 2011 WDR: Institutions and Legitimacy Matter ........................................................................12 Box 2.2. Conflict Filter Application in Kyrgyz Republic ...........................................................................15 Box 3.1. The Bangsamoro Development Agency ..................................................................................37 Box 3.2. IFC’s Advisory Service and Client Engagement in Mindanao with Unifrutti .............................39 Box 4.1. Learning and Innovation Loans: The Magdalena Medio Series, 1998-2002 ............................56 Box 6.1. Lebanon Economic and Social Impact Assessment Findings ..................................................79 Table Table 3.1. World Bank Group Program Adjustment Post-Conflict..........................................................36 Figure Figure 1.1. Incidence of Conflicts in 1992, 2002, and 2012 .................................................................... 2 Appendixes APPENDIX A. HISTORY OF CONFLICTS AND VIOLENCE ................................................................ 95 APPENDIX B. A SNAPSHOT OF FRAGILITY, CONFLICT, AND VIOLENCE BEYOND THE HARMONIZED LIST ............................................................................................................................ 112 APPENDIX C. REFERENCE TABLES ............................................................................................... 113 APPENDIX D. PORTFOLIO ................................................................................................................ 122 APPENDIX E.. PEOPLE MET ............................................................................................................