UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SANTA CRUZ Legislating in the Slump: The Politics of Economic Policymaking In Congress During Recessions, 1946-2009 A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in POLITICS by Scott Newsome June 2020 The Dissertation of Scott Newsome is approved: __________________________________ Professor Daniel Wirls, chair __________________________________ Professor Eva Bertram __________________________________ Professor Roger Schoenman _____________________________ Quentin Williams Acting Vice Provost and Dean of Graduate Studies Copyright © by Scott Newsome 2020 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ....................................................................................... III LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES ........................................................................ V ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................... VII ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................IX CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................... 1 U.S. RESPONSES TO RECESSIONS .................................................................................................... 3 CONGRESSIONAL RESPONSES TO RECESSIONS ................................................................................. 6 CHAPTER 2: CONGRESS IN THE POST WAR ERA: INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES ............................... 9 THE POST WAR CONGRESS .......................................................................................................... 10 1946-1970: Decentralization and Coalition Governance .......................................................... 16 The Reforms of the 1970s: Fragmentation ............................................................................... 19 The Reforms of the 1970s: Centralization ............................................................................... 23 The Consequences of Individualism: Floor Amendments, Restrictive Rules, and the Filibuster 25 The Consequences of Centralization: Majority Party Governance in a Polarized Environment . 26 THEORIES OF CONGRESSIONAL BEHAVIOR .................................................................................... 29 The Need for Responsible Parties ........................................................................................... 30 The Rise of Purposive Politicians ............................................................................................ 33 Dominant Committees, Informed Floors, and Ruling Supermajorities ...................................... 36 Rise of the Majority Party ....................................................................................................... 39 UNDERSTANDING THE POST WAR CONGRESS................................................................................ 40 CHAPTER 3: LAWMAKING IN THE POST WAR ERA: CONGRESS AND THE PRESIDENT IN THE LEGISLATIVE PROCESS DURING RECESSIONS, 1946-2009 ..................................................................................... 43 UNIVERSE OF CASES .................................................................................................................... 46 LAWMAKING DURING RECESSIONS............................................................................................... 47 Defining and Measuring Agenda Setting ................................................................................. 48 Defining and Measuring Success ............................................................................................ 53 The Data ................................................................................................................................ 57 EXPLAINING CONGRESSIONAL INITIATIVE .................................................................................... 65 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................... 72 CHAPTER 4: MAKING ECONOMIC POLICY DURING RECESSIONS: TOOLS AND CHOICE ......................................................................................... 74 ECONOMIC POLICY TOOLS ........................................................................................................... 77 Defining Economic Policy Tools ............................................................................................ 78 The Data ................................................................................................................................ 79 EXPLAINING CONGRESSIONAL CHOICE IN POLICY TOOLS .............................................................. 91 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................... 96 CHAPTER 5: MAKING ECONOMIC POLICY DURING RECESSIONS: INTEREST AND CHOICE .................................................................................. 98 iii COST AND BENEFITS ................................................................................................................... 101 Defining and Measuring Distribution ..................................................................................... 102 Defining and Measuring Magnitude ....................................................................................... 105 The Data ............................................................................................................................... 107 EXPLAINING CONGRESSIONAL CHOICE IN DISTRIBUTION AND MAGNITUDE................................... 116 CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................. 124 CHAPTER 6: MAKING ECONOMIC POLICY IN CONGRESS DURING RECESSIONS: THREE CASE STUDIES ......................................................... 126 THE 87TH CONGRESS AND THE 1961 RECESSION .......................................................................... 128 The House: Reliant on an (Un)Equal Partner .......................................................................... 130 The House: A Subdued Rank and File .................................................................................... 133 The Senate: Increasing the Distribution and Magnitude of Benefits ........................................ 135 Conference: Economizing Congressional Largesse ................................................................. 138 President Kennedy’s Tax Proposal ......................................................................................... 139 THE 94TH CONGRESS AND THE 1975 RECESSION .......................................................................... 140 The House: Taking the Initiative ............................................................................................ 144 The House: Initiative Related to Presidential Guidance .......................................................... 146 The House: An Active and Empowered Rank and File ........................................................... 148 The Senate: A Proactive Partner............................................................................................. 150 The Senate: Changing the Distribution and Magnitude of Benefits ......................................... 152 Conference: Economizing Congressional Largesse ................................................................. 153 THE 111TH CONGRESS AND THE 2009 RECESSION ........................................................................ 155 The House: Taking the Initiative ............................................................................................ 157 The House: Initiative Related to Presidential Guidance .......................................................... 158 The House: An Active Rank and File; A Speaker in Control ................................................... 160 The Senate: A Proactive Partner............................................................................................. 163 The Senate: Increasing the Distribution and Magnitude of Benefits ........................................ 164 Resolving Differences ........................................................................................................... 167 CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................. 169 CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSION............................................................................ 173 IMPLICATIONS ............................................................................................................................ 175 AREAS OF FUTURE RESEARCH ...................................................................................................... 178 Economic Policymaking Outside of Recessions ..................................................................... 178 Timing of Benefits and Costs ................................................................................................. 179 Distributional Concerns ......................................................................................................... 180 Efficacy of Response ............................................................................................................. 180 APPENDIXES ....................................................................................................