Six Perspectives on Naval Strategy Karlskrona and Stockholm, 21-23 October 2008 NIKLAS GRANHOLM (ED.) MICHAEL Codner, ROBert DALSJÖ, NORMAN FRIEDMAN, ERIC GROVE, KARL SÖRENSON, LEE WILLett FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research, method and technology development, as well as studies conducted in the interests of Swedish defence and the safety and security of society. The organisation employs approximately 1000 personnel of whom about 800 are scientists. This makes FOI Sweden’s largest research institute. FOI gives its customers access to leading-edge expertise in a large number of fields such as security policy studies, defence and security related analyses, the assessment of various types of threat, systems for control and management of crises, protection against and management of hazardous substances, IT security and the potential offered by new sensors. FOI Swedish Defence Research Agency Phone: +46 8 55 50 30 00 www.foi.se FOI-R--2655--SE Base data report Defence Analysis Defence Analysis Fax: +46 8 55 50 31 00 ISSN 1650-1942 December 2008 SE-164 90 Stockholm Michael Codner, Robert Dalsjö, Norman Friedman, Eric Grove, Karl Sörenson and Lee Willett Niklas Granholm (Ed.) Six Perspectives on Naval Strategy Karlskrona and Stockholm, 21-23 October 2008 FOI-R--2655--SE Titel Sex perspektiv på marin strategi. Karlskrona och Stock- holm, 21-23 oktober 2008 Title Six Perspectives on Naval Strategy. Karlskrona & Stock- holm, 21-23 October 2008 Rapportnr/Report no FOI-R--2655--SE Rapporttyp Underlagsrapport Report Type Base data report Månad/Month December/December Utgivningsår/Year 2008 Antal sidor/Pages 92 p ISSN ISSN 1650-1942 Kund/Customer Försvarsmakten Forskningsområde 2. Operationsanalys, modellering och simulering Programme area 2. Operational Research, Modelling and Simulation Delområde 12 Internationell samverkan Subcategory 12 International Co-operation Projektnr/Project no E 21173 Godkänd av/Approved by Göran Kindvall FOI, Totalförsvarets Forskningsinstitut FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency Avdelningen för Försvarsanalys Defence Analysis 164 90 Stockholm SE-164 90 Stockholm FOI-R--2655--SE Sammanfattning Rapporten är en sammanställning av anförandena vid den marinstrategiska kon- ferens som hölls den 22 oktober 2008 i Karlskrona och de möten och seminarier som hölls i Stockholm följande dag. De här publicerade konferensbidragen har utvecklats och skrivits om i ljuset av diskussionen och kommentarerna av talare samt åhörare. Konferensen fokuserade på de globala marina utvecklingarna, utsikterna till eu- ropeiskt marint samarbete, de strukturella och konceptuella frågor den svenska marinen står inför, hur den brittiska marinen hanterar sina strukturella problem och frågeställningar samt en analys av det tilltagande sjöröveriet runt Afrikas horn och hur problemet kan hanteras. Konferensen arrangerades av Totalförsvarets Forskningsinstitut (FOI), på upp- drag av marinen genom sjöstridsskolan inom ramen för den marina huvudstudien 2008. Nyckelord: Marin strategi, Marin struktur, Marinen, Royal Navy, Europeiska Unionen, Marint internationellt samarbete, Afrikas Horn, Pirater. 3 FOI-R--2655--SE Summary This report is the result of a conference on naval strategy and maritime issues held in Karlskrona, Sweden on the 22nd of October 2008 and at a seminar in Stockholm the following day. The conference papers were subsequently updated and developed in order to take into account the comments and debate that fol- lowed during the course of the conference. The conference addressed the global naval developments, the prospects for naval co-operation in Europe, conceptual and structural issues for the Royal Swedish Navy from two different perspectives, how the Royal Navy has tackled structural challenges and lastly an analysis of the emerging problem of piracy on the Horn of Africa and some suggestions on how to tackle it. The conference was arranged by the Swedish Defence Research Agency on be- half of the Royal Swedish Navy. Keywords: Naval Strategy, Naval Structures, Piracy, Royal Navy, Royal Swed- ish Navy, Stealth capabilities, European Union, Naval co-operation, Horn of Africa. 4 FOI-R--2655--SE Contents Introduction....................................................................................................7 About the Authors .........................................................................................8 Some Global Naval Trends .........................................................................13 Norman Friedman European Naval Co-operation and Interoperability – Prospects and Problems ......................................................................................................25 Michael Codner The Royal Swedish Navy: An Outsider’s Perspective .............................36 Lee Willett We No longer Need a Sports Car, We Need a Station Wagon – Conceptual Challenges and Issues for the Royal Swedish Navy...........57 Robert Dalsjö The Royal Navy Today; Not as Bad As Some Say? .................................68 Eric Grove Tactical Blindness? Reviewing the Strategic Implications of the Somali Piracy ...............................................................................................75 Karl Sörenson 5 FOI-R--2655--SE Cover: Naval expedition to confront African corsairs, 1390. A joint French and English expedition setting out at request of the Genoese, to battle with African corsairs who were a threat to shipping. 6 FOI-R--2655--SE Introduction The development in the maritime arena can appear paradoxical – on the one hand, the globalised economy is highly dependent on the sea for trade and transport but on the other, the maritime developments receive rela- tively little attention in the international debate. It seems that “sea- blindness”, a phenomenon where planners, strategists and politicians tend to overlook the increasingly important role of the sea in a globalised world, has struck. International co-operation, interoperability, increasing pirate activity, technological development and regional naval (re-)armament are but a few of the many challenges facing those who think about maritime secu- rity and plan future naval force structures. What role can naval assets play in today’s world and how should navies be structured? What are the pros- pects for international naval and maritime co-operation? Some old threats to Good Order at Sea are back on the agenda – how can they be tackled? What are the structural and operational challenges facing the Royal Swed- ish Navy today? To discuss these issues from different perspectives, the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), convened a group of distinguished strategic and naval experts for a one-day conference in Karlskrona on the 22nd of Oc- tober 2008. The conference was held on behalf of the Royal Swedish Navy, and was followed the next day by a seminar in Stockholm, with analysts at FOI as the main audience. In addition, meetings with Swedish officials and parliamentarians took place. The result of the conference, the seminar and meetings led to this publica- tion. The six presentations made at the conference have been developed from the discussions and comments made by the participants during these two days. It is our hope that this contribution to the naval strategic debate can provide some input for policymakers both in Sweden and internation- ally. Stockholm in December 2008, Niklas Granholm Per Brämming Senior Analyst, Senior Analyst, Division of Defence Analysis Division of Defence and Security Systems 7 FOI-R--2655--SE About the Authors Mr. Michael Codner, Head of Military Studies Department, RUSI Michael Codner is the Director of the Military Sciences Department at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). He researches a range of subjects from defence policy, strategic theory and doc- trine, to defence management, future concepts and the application of technology to military capability. He also oversees conferences, meetings and lectures in these areas. He retired from the Royal Navy in October 1995 after a career as a Seaman Officer principally working in anti-submarine warfare and in the latter part of his career, maritime strategy and doctrine, future concepts, defence policy and international issues. He was a lecturer in strategy and operational art at the US Naval War College, was a Defence Fellow at the Centre for Defence Studies, King's College, London and has held a NATO Fellowship working on coalition interoperability. His de- grees are in Philosophy and Psychology (Brasenose College, Oxford). He lec- tures regularly at University College, London, Southampton University, the Uni- versity of St. Andrews, the University of Greenwich and the Joint Services Command and Staff College. His written work includes editorship and principal authorship of the First Edition of the Royal Navy’s BR1806: the Fundamentals of British Maritime Doctrine and numerous articles, papers and chapters in journals and collections. Dr. Robert Dalsjö Robert Dalsjö is a Senior Analyst specializing in politico-military affairs at the Division of Defence Analysis of the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI). He holds a Doctorate from King’s College, London and a Masters from George- town University. His doctorate thesis on Sweden’s Cold-War military planning was published as “Life-Line Lost. The Rise and Fall of ‘Neutral’ Sweden’s Se- cret Reserve Option of Wartime Help Form the West”, in 2006 (Santérus Aca- demic Press, 2006). He has worked and published