N°41 - September 27 2007 Published every two weeks/International Edition CONTENTS ELECTION P. 1-2 Politics & Government c ELECTION On the Eve of the Battle c On the Eve of the Battle With only a few days to go before the snap legislative election on September 30, tension is mount- INTERVIEW ing in Kyiv. Ukraine’s three main political protagonists – Viktor Yushchenko, Viktor Yanukovich c Roman Zvarych : «Let’s govern with Timoshenko» and Yulia Timoshenko – are getting ready for the fray, and pretending to ignore the agitation in their respective camps, brought on by the uncertainty of the vote. The Prime Minister, who is now devoting himself full-time to the campaign, is trying to regain the upper hand, after a summer’s P. 3-4 Business & Networks end dominated by the president, who was frequently in the press, and systematically countered FOCUS any government initiative (UI n°39 of August 30 3007). Viktor Yanukovich, on visit in Crimea on c Media, Politics and Money September 21, set the tone when he warned the president against any electoral or post electoral ALERT c Commerzbank Gains manipulation. Otherwise, he saw fit to add, “Some people may not have time to leave the country”. Foothold in Ukraine Two days earlier, the Party of Regions had published a communiqué warning that it could boycott REGIONS the vote if its opponents continued with their “cynical provocations”. The party also brandished c Odessa, the New Epicenter the threat of impeaching Viktor Yushchenko if he opposes a referendum on the status of the Russ- of the Power Struggle bet- ian language and on Ukraine’s neutrality. Meanwhile, Interior Minister Vasily Tsushko, who drew ween the Two Viktors attention to himself, at the height of the political crisis in May, when he “took” the General Pros- BEHIND THE SCENES ecutor’s office, compared People’s Union Our Ukraine to the “Sicilian mafia of the 1970s”. c Aeronautics: New Projects with Russia The “Oranges” were not to be outdone in this unfortunate free-for-all, which has been on display in Ukraine for many months now. Yulia Timoshenko, speaking in Belaya Tserkov on Sep- tember 12, accused the current government of “covering up drug trafficking”. She followed this with a long article in the Kyiv post entitled “Taking Back Rinat Akhmetov’s Companies”. As for READ ALSO… Viktor Yushchenko, he continues imposing himself by force, using, it sometimes seems, his Russ- ian counterpart as an example. Anxious to recreate a type of “verticality of power”, the President In “Russia Intelligence” endorsed three bills, prepared by his staff, aimed at reducing the autonomy of local and regional Last Issue authorities. KREMLIN c The game of liars’ poker The final period of the election campaign was also marked by a return to the poisoning inci- continues dent that Viktor Yushchenko was victim to in September 2004. The Ukrainian president once again GOVERNMENT deplored the lack of cooperation on the part of the Russian judicial system and, in veiled terms, c Change everything pointed to the Kremlin as being behind the operation. We can expect that the next Yushchenko- to change nothing Putin meeting, scheduled for October in Moscow, may not be the friendliest. ENERGY c E.On breaks into its Coming after the presidential election of late 2004 and the legislatives of March 2006, the Sep- piggybank to break into the tember 30 vote is the third time the two Viktors will be confronting each other in an election. Both Russian electricity market the protagonists themselves as well as Moscow, Brussels and Washington, strongly believe that CASPIAN PIPELINE the results of this election will influence developments within Ukraine, as well as its strategic po- c The final victory of Semyon Vaynshtok sition in the world, for many years to come. The post-electoral risks are in proportion to the issues at stake. One of the more alarming points that have cropped up in recent days is that the protag- RUSSNEFT c Deripaska moves his chips onists are prepared to contest the election results if they are not in their interest. Viktor Yanukovich has already announced that there will be mass demonstrations if any evidence of fraud was found, INTERVIEW c Jean Radvanyi and, as we go to press, the Party of Regions had begun a “preventive” rally in Kyiv’s famous Inde- pendence Square. Validating the results will be all the more tricky in that the Central Electoral Commission, which is far from being the impartial body it should be, was divided up amongst the SUBSCRIPTION various political forces according to regional affiliation. Exit polls will be taken by three Ukrain- Print Edition ian research centers (including the Razumkov center, directed between 1999 and 2004 by the De- (23 issues, airmailed overseas) fense Minister, Anatoly Gritsenko). These centers are financed by the embassies of the United €385 TTC States, the Netherlands, Denmark and Norway – four countries which are campaigning actively for Ukraine’s membership to NATO – a fact that will undoubtedly lead Party of Regions leaders Electronic Edition and supporters to suspect bias. (Print Edition + PDF + archives acess) €440 TTC The election on September 30 may be aimed at clarifying the political situation, but it may, on the contrary, open up a new chapter in the Ukrainian crisis. d www.ukraine-intelligence.fr UKRAINE INTELLIGENCE Politics & Government INTERVIEWcc c Roman Zvarych : «Let’s govern with Timoshenko» What is your outlook on the outcome of Parliamentary resolved by the elections. What can be done immediately elections, given that the presidential bloc “Our Ukraine” to lessen the risk of a renewed political crisis? appears quite weak? Nothing can be done immediately. And even if (changes) could I still feel sure now that – I don’t know if the public opinion be accomplished quickly, I would caution everyone concerned polls indicate that – that we can overcome this 2 or 3 per cent from doing it quickly: the constitution is not simply a legal doc- difference (with the regions’ Party) and which would put us in ument; it is the result of a social contract, to use Rousseau’s term. a position together with Byut to create a coalition, and of course My proposal is that all parties concerned draft a new constitu- to form a government on the base of this coalition. tion – that this draft should be the product of initial political It is public knowledge, though, that there are many fig- compromise of all the political forces concerned. That it should ures inside “Our Ukraine” that were not in favor of a coali- go through the treadmill of public debate, and then finally when tion with Yulia Tymoshenko, has this changed? all parties feel that the process has reached a point of fruition I’m one of them! I’m also very realistic, very much pragmatic to hold an all-national referendum, and give power to the peo- as most of my colleagues are, and I realize that despite the fact ple to choose their constitutional order. that this may not be to our liking, this would probably be the best Check and balances exist under different regimes, a course for us to take, and, so far, the optimum means of secur- presidential regime like in the United States, or mixed… ing Ukraine’s further development, specifically in the areas of Our assumption is that a mixed presidential parliamentary democratic institutions and economic reform. Some of Byut’s form of government is not necessarily effective, specifically in problematic positions do not necessarily find support in our bloc. this country. We would like to see a government based on parlia- Also, some of her – I’m trying to put this mildly – adventurous mentary approval, without any intrusion on the part of the pres- initiatives do not fit well with our more balanced, tempered ap- ident – I will be very frank about that. But with the president proach to handling political problems. It’s not just a difference having very clear powers regarding certain key areas of govern- in substance in some key areas; it’s also a difference in style. ment policies and his directives become obligatory for the gov- She’s a much more radical politician. ernment. So where does the compromise lie? These areas would be… At one government meeting she accused me of being a die- Foreign policy, and national security. hard liberal. But there can’t be full acquiescence between two The gas problem and Russia… political forces, otherwise, why would you need two? At face value This is a question that tormented of course, our government, if you take our program and the Regions party program you would the Tymoshenko government – we signed agreements with the find much more similarities. On the other hand there is very lit- Russian Federation, which the Russian Federation simply has tle ground to believe that (the Regions’ Party) are committed to ignored. We had no other choice than to agree to the prices that following their own programmatic axioms. (Yulia Tymoshenko) were shoved down our throats at the beginning of January (2006 sees herself as a left of center politician and yet there is so much 2006), we also have commitments towards the countries of West- more that unites us : commitment to Ukraine’s further demo- ern Europe for allowing the transit of gas, through our territory cratic development. You have to remember that we spent about – taking all of that into account we reached that agreement. The two months following the 2006 elections negotiating a coalition Regions party promised they would reduce the prices for gas…well, with Yulia, it consisted of nearly 1000 pages of text.