A PARLIAMENT THAT WORKS FOR WALES The report of the Expert Panel on Assembly Electoral Reform November 2017 The Expert Panel on Assembly Electoral Reform was established in February 2017 to provide robust, politically impartial advice to the Llywydd and Assembly Commission on the number of Members the Assembly needs, the most suitable electoral system, and the minimum voting age for Assembly elections. The Expert Panel on Assembly Electoral Reform: ▶▶ Professor Laura McAllister CBE (Chair) ▶▶ Professor Rosie Campbell and Professor Sarah Childs (job sharing) ▶▶ Rob Clements ▶▶ Professor David Farrell MRIA ▶▶ Dr Alan Renwick ▶▶ Sir Paul Silk Secretariat to the Panel: ▶▶ Helen Finlayson, Clerk ▶▶ Sian Giddins, Deputy Clerk (February to June 2017) ▶▶ Candice Boyes, Deputy Clerk (June to November 2017) ▶▶ Lowri Jones, Support Officer With legal and research assistance from: ▶▶ Gwyn Griffiths, Senior Legal Adviser ▶▶ Helen Jones, Research Service ▶▶ Lisa Salkeld, Legal Adviser Copies of this document can also be obtained in accessible formats including Braille, large print, audio or hard copy from: Clerk to the Expert Panel x▶ 0300 200 6565 National Assembly for Wales ▶[email protected] Cardiff Bay CF99 1NA A PARLIAMENT THAT WORKS FOR WALES The report of the Expert Panel on Assembly Electoral Reform CONTENTS Introduction from the Chair........................................................... 5 Executive summary ....................................................................... 7 List of recommendations ............................................................. 11 Part 1: Introduction and background ........................................ 16 01. The Expert Panel on Assembly Electoral Reform ............................................... 17 Background ............................................................................................................ 17 Role of the Expert Panel ........................................................................................ 18 02. Methodology and approach .............................................................................. 19 Approach to our terms of reference .................................................................. 19 Methodology .......................................................................................................... 20 Part 2: The Assembly and its Members ...................................... 22 03. The size of the Assembly ...................................................................................... 23 Background ............................................................................................................ 23 Methodology .......................................................................................................... 24 How many Members does the Assembly need? .............................................. 26 Financial implications ............................................................................................ 29 04. The changing role of the Assembly .................................................................... 33 Development of the Assembly’s role and powers ........................................... 33 Brexit and the future of Wales and the UK outside the European Union ...... 35 05. Increasing capacity without more Members .................................................... 37 Background ............................................................................................................ 37 Could the Assembly find new ways of working? .............................................. 37 Could non-Members play a greater role in scrutiny? ...................................... 39 Could the Assembly’s working week be extended? ....................................... 40 Could the number of sitting weeks be increased? .......................................... 43 Could improved training increase capacity? ................................................... 43 Are the right support and resources available to Members? ......................... 44 Our conclusions ...................................................................................................... 46 06. The roles of Assembly Members.......................................................................... 47 Background ............................................................................................................ 47 Office holders ......................................................................................................... 47 Representing constituents .................................................................................... 48 Political party roles ................................................................................................. 50 Media and communications ............................................................................... 51 Cross-party groups ................................................................................................. 51 Employers ................................................................................................................ 51 What Members do ................................................................................................. 52 Recess ...................................................................................................................... 57 Our conclusions ...................................................................................................... 58 07. Scrutiny and oversight .......................................................................................... 60 Parliamentary scrutiny ........................................................................................... 60 Assembly scrutiny ................................................................................................... 62 Legislative scrutiny ................................................................................................. 65 Financial scrutiny .................................................................................................... 72 Our conclusions ...................................................................................................... 73 08. Capacity of the committee system .................................................................... 74 Background ............................................................................................................ 74 Committee structure ............................................................................................. 74 Committee membership....................................................................................... 75 Membership and chairing of committees ......................................................... 77 Towards a more sustainable and effective committee system ..................... 82 Our conclusions ...................................................................................................... 89 09. UK and international comparators ...................................................................... 90 UK comparators...................................................................................................... 90 International comparators ................................................................................... 92 Our conclusions ...................................................................................................... 94 Part 3: The election of the Assembly .......................................... 96 10. The Assembly’s electoral arrangements ............................................................ 97 Background ............................................................................................................ 97 A principles-based approach .............................................................................. 97 How should the Assembly be elected in 2021? ................................................ 99 Public awareness and information.................................................................... 107 11. Current electoral arrangements ....................................................................... 108 The current Mixed Member Proportional system (Additional Member System)108 Election results since 1999 ................................................................................... 112 Electoral reform in Wales since 1999 ................................................................. 113 12. Diversity of representation ................................................................................. 115 Legislative interventions to encourage diversity ............................................. 115 Job sharing ............................................................................................................ 125 13. Electoral systems ................................................................................................ 128 Background and rejected systems ................................................................... 128 Mixed Member Proportional system ................................................................. 130 Single Transferable Vote ..................................................................................... 135 Flexible List ............................................................................................................. 141 Ballot paper design.............................................................................................. 149 14. Electoral boundaries and sustainability ..........................................................