Chapter 14: Regulating Services Coordinating Lead Author: Pete Smith Lead Authors: Mike Ashmore, Helaina Black, Paul Burgess, Chris Evans, Rosemary Hails, Simon G. Potts, Timothy Quine, Amanda Thomson Contributing Authors: Koos Biesmeijer, Tom Breeze, Mark Broadmeadow, Robert Ferrier, Jim Freer, Jim Hansom, Phil Haygarth, Helen Hesketh, Kevin Hicks, Andrew Johnson, David Kay, William Kunin, Allan Lilly, Linda May, Jane Memmott, Harriet Orr, Roger Pickup, Beth Purse, Geoff Squire Key Findings ...........................................................................................................................................3 14.1 Regulating Services and Human Well-being ...................................................................................5 14.2 Climate Regulation .........................................................................................................................6 14.2.1 Trends in Climate Regulating Services ....................................................................................................6 14.2.2 Drivers of Change .....................................................................................................................................7 14.2.3 Consequences of Change ........................................................................................................................8 14.2.4 Options for Sustainable Management ...................................................................................................10 14.2.5 Knowledge Gaps .....................................................................................................................................10 14.3 Hazard Regulation ........................................................................................................................ 12 14.3.1 Trends in Hazard Regulating Services ...................................................................................................12 14.3.2 Drivers of Change ................................................................................................................................... 14 14.3.3 Consequences of Change ....................................................................................................................... 15 14.3.4 Options for Sustainable Management ................................................................................................finalised ... 16 14.3.5 Knowledge Gaps .................................................................................................................................... 16 14.4 Disease and Pest Regulation ......................................................................................................... 17 14.4.1 Trends in Disease and Pest Regulation ................................................................................................. 17 14.4.2 Drivers of Change ................................................................................................not ................................... 19 14.4.3 Consequences of Change .......................................................................................................................25 14.4.4 Options for Sustainable Management ...................................................................................................25 14.4.5 Knowledge Gaps .....................................................................................................................................27 14.5 Pollination ..................................................................................................................................... 27 14.5.1 Trends in Pollination ...............................................................................................................................27 14.5.2 Drivers of Change ................................................proofs ...................................................................................28 14.5.3 Consequences of Change .......................................................................................................................29 14.5.4 Options for Sustainable Management ...................................................................................................29 14.5.5 Knowledge Gaps ..................................................................................................................................... 31 14.6 Noise Regulation ........................................................................................................................... 31 14.6.1 Trends in Noise RegulationPage .................................................................................................................... 31 14.6.2 Drivers of Change ...................................................................................................................................32 14.6.3 Consequences of Change .......................................................................................................................32 14.6.4 Options for Sustainable Management ...................................................................................................33 14.6.5 Knowledge Gaps .....................................................................................................................................34 14.7 Soil Quality Regulation .................................................................................................................34 14.7.1 Trends in Soil Quality ..............................................................................................................................34 14.7.2 Drivers of Change ....................................................................................................................................37 14.7.3 Consequences of Change ........................................................................................................................38 14.7.4 Options for Sustainable Management ....................................................................................................39 14.7.5 Knowledge Gaps ......................................................................................................................................40 14.8 Air Quality Regulation ..................................................................................................................40 14.8.1 Trends in Air Quality ...............................................................................................................................40 14.8.2 Drivers of Change ................................................................................................................................... 41 14.8.3 Consequences of Change .......................................................................................................................42 14.8.4 Options for Sustainable Management ...................................................................................................42 14.8.5 Knowledge Gaps .....................................................................................................................................43 14.9 Water Quality Regulation ..............................................................................................................44 14.9.1 Trends in Water Quality ..........................................................................................................................44 Ecosystem Services | Chapter 14: Regulating Services 1 14.9.2 Drivers of Change ....................................................................................................................................44 14.9.3 Consequences of Change .......................................................................................................................46 14.9.4 Options for Sustainable Management ....................................................................................................46 14.9.5 Knowledge Gaps ...................................................................................................................... 47 14.10 Trade-offs and Synergies ............................................................................................................48 References ............................................................................................................................................48 finalised not proofs Page 2 UK National Ecosystem Assessment: Technical Report Key Findings* The regulating services provided by ecosystems are extremely diverse. Their status and trends, drivers and consequences of change, effective management, and knowledge gaps differ greatly There are differences even among indicators within individual regulating services, as can be observed, for example, with the various components of water quality including acidity, pollutants and sediment. The services are, therefore, reported independently, although relevant interactions (particularly between air, soil and water quality regulation) are noted. Ecosystems regulate climate by: i) providing sources or sinks of greenhouse gases 1 well established (affecting global warming) and sources of aerosols (affecting temperature and cloud c likely formation); and ii) their physical characteristics which can regulate local and regional climate. The UK has large amounts of carbon ‘locked up’ in its forests, peatlands and soils (114 megatonnes Carbon (Mt C) in vegetation; 9,838 ± 2,463 Mt C in soils)1. Projected changes in emissions (under a ‘business as usual’ scenario)