Chapter 2 Trends in Human Security and Conflict During the first five years of the 21st ordnance and illegal armed groups continue century, the number of armed conflicts long after the cessation of hostilities. around the world was lower than at any time since the 1950s. According to the Despite the decline in the number of Human Security Report,4 the number of people killed in conflicts, many people in battle-related deaths was also at an all-time large parts of the world live in intolerable low, though the number does not reflect situations of insecurity, often as a result of civilians deliberately targeted in war. Table conflict. High levels of insecurity in all the 4 summarizes the main indicators for the case-study countries are indicated by the six case-study countries. Only two countries levels of refugees and displaced persons (Afghanistan and the Democratic Republic and the low ranking in human development of the Congo) are still experiencing direct indicators. Although Guatemala and Tajikistan conflict-related deaths. Needless to say, fare better in terms of population displacement indirect deaths from conflict, resulting, for and human development indicators, they also example, from landmines, unexploded experience high levels of crime and human TABLE 4. HUMAN SECURITY, ODA AND UNDP EXPENDITURE IN SIX CASE-STUDY COUNTRIES Country Battle- Internally Refugees HDI HDI ODA ODA/ UNDP UNDP related displaced abroadb 2003c ranking 2003e GNI total expendi- deaths persons 2003d (US$ 2003f expendi- tures/ in 2003a in 2003b millions) (%) tures in ODA (% 2004g in 2004) (US$ millions) Afghanistan 317 200,000 - 2,500,000 1,595 34.74 328.564 15 300,000 Democratic 2,154 3,200,000 - 429,000 .385 167 5,421* 98.61 32.037 2 Republic of 3,400,000 the Congo Guatemala 11,600 .663 117 247 1.01 55.199 25** Haiti 25,800 .475 153 200 6.88 17.710 7 Sierra Leone 71,000 .298 176 303 31.51 14.457 4 Tajikistan 59,800 .652 122 147 10.07 8.802 4 * Official development assistance (ODA) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was particularly high in 2003, so this figure should be read with caution: annual ODA receipts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 2000 to 2005, respectively, were 184; 263; 1,188; 5,421; 1,815. In Afghanistan, ODA receipts increased steadily during the period 2000 to 2005 (with the 2003 figure slightly higher than the average for this period); in the other countries in this table, ODA receipts remained relatively stable over this period. ** For all countries this figure should be treated with caution due to the possibility of double-counting aid in terms of ODA and UNDP expenditures:UNDP figures contain large elements of trust funds that donors probably report separately to the World Bank and OECD. This should be a minor problem as the volume of UNDP is relatively small; however, in Guatemala, the government contributes large sums to UNDP projects under cost-sharing arrangements.The figure for Guatemala should therefore be treated with particular caution. Sources: (a) Human Security Report; (b) US Committee for Refugees and Immigrants; (c,d) UNDP; (e,f) OECD/World Bank; (g) UNDP Intranet. 4 Human Security Centre, University of British Columbia, Canada. Human Security Report 2005: War and Peace in the 21st Century. New York: Oxford University Press. Available at: http://www.humansecurityreport.info/ TRENDS IN HUMAN SECURITY AND CONFLICT 11 rights violations, as well as unemployment, Table 5 and Table 6, respectively, present as discussed below. Most remain heavily indicative figures for casualties and popula- dependent on external assistance, especially tion displacement in the six case-study Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of countries. The scale of civilian casualties, the Congo and Sierra Leone. Moreover, the both as a result of political violence and rise in terror and the war on terror, especially war-related disease, and the scale of as pursued within conflict-affected areas, displacements given by even the most HUMAN RIGHTS has compounded the sources of insecurity. conservative estimates, are striking. An important feature of the tables is the VIOLATIONS variation in reported figures from the small CONTINUE AFTER 2.1 TRENDS IN HUMAN selection of sources presented. The reader THE CESSATION SECURITY IN CONFLICT- may wish to refer to the UNDP Evaluation AFFECTED COUNTRIES Office website (www.undp.org/eo) for a short OF OVERT discussion of the considerable problems 2.1.1 Conflicts HOSTILITIES, associated with data on human security, Civilian deaths probably account for around and a fuller presentation of data from a ALTHOUGH 80–90 percent of total casualties in contem- number of sources. THEIR FORM porary warfare. This includes deaths from MAY CHANGE. deliberate violence and deaths that result The sections that follow summarize the from the humanitarian crises associated main trends in other aspects of human with war.5 security in conflict-affected countries. A noteworthy feature of contemporary 2.1.2 Human rights violations and crime conflicts is the very high level of population Contemporary conflicts are associated with displacement. According to the Office of high levels of human rights violations and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees violations of humanitarian law, including (UNHCR), the global refugee population forced detention, atrocities such as rose from 2.4 million people in 1975 to amputation or decapitation, widespread or 14.4 million people in 1995. It subsequently systematic rape and other forms of sexual declined to 9.6 million in 2004, primarily abuse and violence, the use of child soldiers, as a consequence of increased repatriation. child labour and using women and children This figure only includes refugees who cross as sex slaves, abduction and kidnapping 6 international boundaries. Figures provided of hostages and of women into forced by the US Committee on Refugees and marriages, and the destruction of historic Immigrants include internally displaced buildings and cultural symbols. All the persons (IDPs) and are much higher, conflicts in the case-study countries witnessed increasing from 22 million in 1980 to most of these human rights violations, 38 million in 1995 (of whom approximately although the conflict in Sierra Leone was half were internally displaced), and declining probably the most gruesome in terms of all to 32.8 million in 2004 (of whom two thirds these types of violations. were IDPs).7 The number of refugees and internally displaced persons per conflict In most cases, human rights violations can be estimated to have increased more continue after the cessation of overt hostilities, than threefold from 1969 to 2004—from although their form may change. The 327,000 to 1,093,300.8 reasons have to do with a weak rule of law, 5 The increase in the share of civilian deaths was already observed in the 1990s. Kaldor, Mary and Basker Vashee (eds.). 1997. Restructuring the Global Military Sector: Vol I: New Wars. London; Washington: Pinter. 6 Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. 17 June 2004. Global Refugee Trends. Geneva: UNHCR. 7 See the website of US Committee on Refugees and Immigrants: www.refugees.org 8 The first number is taken from Myron Weiner. 1996. ‘Bad Neighbours, Bad Neighbourhoods: An Inquiry into the Causes of Refugee Flows.’ International Security 21(1). The second number is estimated using the above figures and the Uppsala database. See Harbom, Lotta and Peter Wallerstein. 2005. ‘Armed Conflict and its International Dimensions, 1946-2004’. Journal of Peace Research, 42(5). 12 CHAPTER 2 TABLE 5. CONFLICT CASUALTIES IN SIX CASE-STUDY COUNTRIES Country Years of Uppsala/PRIO Lacina & Gleditsch Project Genocide conflict Battledeaths estimates Ploughshares Watch 'Best estimate' Notes for period given in parentheses Afghanistan 1978-2003 564,495 No figures available As many as 1.5 million 840,000 (1978- (1978-2002) for Northern Alliance, people, two thirds of 1996) plus Taliban, or Al Qaeda whom were civilians, 'thousands of losses since 2001 have died since 1978 government 1.5 million between supporters' 1978 and 1992 [World (1996-2001) Military and Social Expenditures, Ruth Leger Sivard, 1993] Democratic 1996-2000 149,000 The invasion of the (Implied 1990- 3,120,000 Republic of (1996-2001) Democratic Republic of January 2006): (1994-2005) the Congo the Congo from 1996- Total: An estimated 1997 was accompanied 350,000 people by large-scale massacres, killed as a direct not included here as consequence of battle deaths. About violence. In total, an 350,000 civilians were estimated 4 million killed by violence deaths resulting from 1998-2001, and from the conflict, approximately 2.5 mostly from mal- million have died from nutrition and disease all war-related causes Guatemala 1982-1996 44,450 Estimates for the total 200,000 (1969-1995) number of people killed Mayans in political violence (1950s-1980s) since 1954 range from 100,000 to over 200,000, with many authors citing a figure of 140,000. Mostly civilians murdered by the government and right-wing death squads Haiti 1989- 250 (1991) Over 2,000 people have been killed by armed and criminal groups since February 2004 (implied until January 2006) Sierra Leone 1991-2002 12,997 One estimate of Implied 1991-2002: 100,000 (1991-2000) war-related deaths from Estimates of the total (1991-2003) 1991 to 1995 is 30,000 conflict deaths range from 20,000 to over 50,000. In addition, 30,000 civilians, including children, have had limbs hacked off by the rebels. An estimated 215, 000 to 257,000 women have been victims of sexual violence Tajikistan 1992-1997 51,300 The war is estimated (1992-1997) to have killed about 50,000 people, most of them in 1992 Sources: www.prio.no/cwp/armedconflict/current/Codebook_v3-2005.pdf; www.ploughshares.ca/libraries/ACRText/ACR-TitlePageRev.htm; www.genocidewatch.org/genocidetable2005.ht TRENDS IN HUMAN SECURITY AND CONFLICT 13 TABLE 6.