WorkingDraft 2011 URBANRISK ASSESSMENTS ANAPPROACHFORUNDERSTANDING DISASTER&CLIMATERISKINCITIES UrbanDevelopment&LocalGovernmentUnit Finance,EconomicsandUrbanDepartment 0 TheWorldBank UnderstandingUrbanRisk:AnApproachforAssessingDisaster&ClimateRiskinCities Table of Contents Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................... vi List of Acronyms ......................................................................................................................... vii Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... viii 1 The Need for an Urban Risk Assessment ..................................................................1 1.1 Disasters and Cities ................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 Climate Change and Cities ........................................................................................................ 8 1.3 Challenges of Managing Disaster and Climate Risk in Urban Areas ...................................... 12 2 Integrated Urban Risk Assessment as a Tool for Urban Management ................15 2.1 What is Risk Assessment? ....................................................................................................... 16 2.2 An Integrated Approach to Assessing Urban Risk .................................................................. 17 2.3 Initiating, Undertaking and Mainstreaming Urban Risk Assessment ..................................... 22 2.4 Challenges in Undertaking the URA ....................................................................................... 25 3 Pillars of the Urban Risk Assessment ......................................................................27 3.1 The Hazard Impact Assessment .............................................................................................. 28 3.1.1 Primary Level: Developing Simple Risk Maps ................................................................... 31 3.1.2 Secondary Level: Developing loss scenarios through simplified impact models ............... 33 3.1.3 Tertiary Level Hazard impact assessment: Modeling Disaster and Climate Risk .............. 36 3.2 The Institutional Assessment ................................................................................................... 40 3.3 The Socioeconomic Assessment ............................................................................................. 44 4 Concluding Remarks: From Risk Assessment to Action Planning and Implementation ..........................................................................................................50 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 51 4.2 Developing Action Plans: Lessons from Vietnam and New York City .................................. 52 4.3 Key Policy Areas: Lessons from England, Turkey, Kenya, and Colombia ............................ 53 4.4 Institutions and Governance .................................................................................................... 55 Annexes .........................................................................................................................................57 Annex A: Urban Risk Assessment - Mexico City Metropolitan Area, Mexico ..................... 58 Annex B: Urban Risk Assessment - Sao Paulo, Brazil .............................................................72 Annex C: Urban Risk Assessment - Jakarta, Indonesia ..........................................................94 Annex D: Urban Risk Assessment - Dar es Salaam, Tanzania ..............................................108 i UnderstandingUrbanRisk:AnApproachforAssessingDisaster&ClimateRiskinCities Annex E: Case Study - Dakar, Senegal ....................................................................................117 Annex F: Case Study - Legazpi, Philippines ...........................................................................123 Annex G: Case Study - Sana’a, Yemen ....................................................................................133 Annex H: Case Study - Bogota, Colombia: Using the Urban Disaster Risk Index ..............140 Annex J: Remote Sensing as a Tool for Assessing Urban Risk ............................................149 Annex K: Community Based Institutional Mapping and Other Participatory Approaches ..............................................................................................................155 Annex L: Global, National and Local Responses to Disasters and Climate Change ...........158 Annex M: Tools for Climate Risk Assessment .......................................................................162 Annex N: Sample Household Urban Risk Questionnaire .....................................................164 Annex O: PAGER Construction Types Used for Building Inventory Development ..........167 Annex P: Urban Risk Assessment Template ..........................................................................169 Annex Q: Key Definitions .........................................................................................................174 List of Figures Figure 1: Large Cities Exposed to Cyclones and Earthquakes ....................................................... 5 Figure 2: Large Cities in Relation to Current Climate Related Hazards ...................................... 10 Figure 3: Risk as a Process ........................................................................................................... 16 Figure 4: Urban Risk Assessment Approach ................................................................................ 17 Figure 5: Levels and Pillars of the Urban Risk Assessment (Source: Authors) ........................... 19 Figure 6: Urban Risk Assessment, Risk Reduction Planning and Monitoring Process................ 22 Figure 7: Built-up Areas of Dakar Threatened by Hazards (2008) .............................................. 32 Figure 8: Sample Vulnerability Curves ........................................................................................ 35 Figure 9: Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Model ........................................................................... 36 Figure 10: Barcelona Physical Seismic Risk (District of Eixample) ............................................ 36 Figure 11: Socioeconomic Considerations for Understanding Risk ............................................. 44 Figure 12: Screenshots from iPhone® Application Prototype .................................................... 46 Figure 13: Digital Slum Mapping: ................................................................................................ 48 Figure 14: Tumaco, Colombia ...................................................................................................... 55 Figure A1: Mexico City Metropolitan Area ................................................................................ 58 Figure A2: Urban Expansion of the Mexico City Metropolitan Areas, 1950-2005 ..................... 59 Figure A3: 90th percentile of max temp in °C in 1979-2003 and 2015-39 .................................. 66 Figure A4: 95% percentile of precipitation (mm/day) in 1979-2003 and 2015-39 ...................... 66 Figure A5: Vulnerable areas in terms of population and housing ............................................... 69 ii UnderstandingUrbanRisk:AnApproachforAssessingDisaster&ClimateRiskinCities Figure B1: Growing rate for the city of São Paulo. 1950 to 2010 ................................................ 73 Figure B2: Transport use in SP .................................................................................................... 74 Figure B3: GHG emissions from electric energy use for sector in the city of SP ....................... 74 Figure B4: Days with intense rain per decade ............................................................................. 80 Figure B5: Flooding points registered by CGE at São Paulo per year 2004 – 2011 .................... 80 Figure B6: Geo-technical Hazard Areas and Declivity Hazard Areas ........................................ 83 Figure B7: Main flooding points of streets (2000) ....................................................................... 85 Figure B8: Precarious housing in Sao Paulo ................................................................................ 87 Figure B9: Social Vulnerability Index and Social vulnerability overlapped with climate vulnerability ............................................................................................................... 89 Figure C1: Impact of sea-level rise on North Jakarta in a business-as-usual scenario .............. 104 Figure D1: Flood hazard zone map overlain on urban poor settlements ................................... 116 Figure E1: Dakar Study Area ..................................................................................................... 119 Figure E2: Single and Multiple Hazard Maps, Dakar ................................................................ 120 Figure E3: Dakar Hotspots and Population Growth .................................................................. 121 Figure F1: Legazpi Study Area .................................................................................................. 123 Figure F2: Using Pan-sharpened