TOWARDS A RESILIENT PROVIDENCE I S S U E S | I M P A C T S | I N I T I A T I V E S | I N F O R M A T I O N F E B R U A R Y 2 0 2 1 | P R O V I D E N C E R E S I L I E N C E P A R T N E R S H I P Towards a Resilient Providence: Issues, Impacts, Initiatives, Information A report by Pam Rubinoff, Megan Elwell, Sue Kennedy, and Noah Hallisey. Edited by Lesley Squillante. February 2021 Cover photograph © Nicole Capobianco Acknowledgements We thank the researchers, practitioners, and stakeholders who have contributed to this effort to strengthen resilience in Providence and throughout Rhode Island. Their time, expertise, and varied perspectives have been invaluable in shaping this report and leading the work of the Providence Resilience Partnership. Contributors Curt Spalding, Institute at Brown for Environment and Society Horsley Witten Group Funding and Guidance Providence Resilience Partnership Personal Communications, Reviews, Information Monica Allard Cox, Rhode Island Sea Grant Leah Bamburger, City of Providence Austin Becker, URI David Bowen, Narragansett Bay Commission Rachel Calabro, RIDOH Al Dahlberg, Brown University Clara Decerbo, City of Providence David DosReis, City of Providence Barnaby Evans, WaterFire David Everett, City of Providence Janet Freedman, CRMC Tom Giordano, Partnership for Rhode Island Lichen Grewer, Brown University Meg Kerr, Audubon Society of Rhode Island Jo Lee, Brown University, PopUp Rhody Alicia Lehrer, Woonasquatucket River Watershed Council Isaac Ginis, URI Dan Goulet, CRMC Meg Goulet, Narragansett Bay Commission Jon McPherson, USACE Bonnie Nickerson, City of Providence Shaun O’Rourke, RI Infrastructure Bank Bill Patenaude, RIDEM Michael Riccio, USACE Elizabeth Scott, Elizabeth Scott Consulting Carolyn Skuncik, I-195 Commission Elizabeth Stone, RIDEM Tom Uva, Narragansett Bay Commission Chris Waterson, ProvPort | ii Foreword A Comprehensive Look at Providence’s Vulnerability Dear Fellow Rhode Islanders: We have both good news and difficult realities to present. First, the good news is we can address the current and future impacts from climate change in Providence if we come together, mobilize, and adapt. Second, there are real and measurable threats stemming from climate change. Efforts to decarbonize economies across the world will not mitigate the threats facing us over the next decade. Increases in storm activity, extreme rain events and sea level rise will cause unmanageable damage without substantial upgrades and repairs to our current infrastructure. Without action, there will likely be significant flooding in our city causing catastrophic damage to our economy. There is no avoiding the fact that Providence must prepare for the impending risks by creating and implementing the necessary adaptation and resiliency strategies. These efforts must begin now. The Providence Resilience Partnership (PRP) was formed with the goal of supporting a citywide mobilization effort to address Providence’s vulnerabilities. We thought it was critical to identify these key vulnerabilities in one comprehensive report. We are grateful to Pam Rubinoff and her team at the University of Rhode Island’s Coastal Resources Center (URI-CRC) who built a baseline from dozens of previous studies, compiling what we already know as well as what needs to be further studied regarding Providence’s risk profile. The study area focused on the floodplain from the Save the Bay Center on Fields Point extending north along the Port area, through the Hurricane Barrier and Downtown under the Providence Place Mall and up through neighborhoods along the Woonasquatucket River. Finally, this report underlines the urgency for the larger community to join together to address Providence’s vulnerability to climate change. PRP will continue its efforts to expand our community’s awareness on this subject. We will also convene and encourage further dialogue among our civic, institutional and government leaders so they may efficiently suggest and support next steps in both protecting our city’s residents and our economy. Sound actions will emerge from informed, inclusive dialogue and a shared commitment to create a thriving future for Providence. We thank all our partners who have stepped in to work to protect our city and The Providence Foundation for serving as our affiliate and fiscal agent. Here is our call to action for you: Please visit our website at providenceresilience.org, sign up to join the PRP network and give us your ideas, time and resources to make this a reality. We appreciate your interest and hope you will support positive action ensuring Providence’s future. Respectfully submitted, Arnold B. Chace Jr and Curt Spalding on behalf of the PRP Partnership Members Table of Contents Acknowledgements i Foreword ii Overview Executive Summary 1 Introduction 9 Hazards of Focus and Modeling Tools 12 Overarching Themes Economy and Society 23 Infrastructure and Environment 32 Health and Well-being 50 Infrastructure Systems The Fox Point Hurricane Barrier 59 Wastewater Treatment 69 Stormwater Systems 79 Places Providence Port Area 93 Downtown 104 Woonasquatucket River Corridor 115 Resources 124 Towards a Resilient Providence, February 2021 OVERVIEW Executive Summary | 1 Executive Summary As the rate of rising water in Narragansett Bay accelerates, as the intensity of storms becomes more damaging, and as the amount of water that falls with major rain events grows, no home, no business, no neighborhood will escape the impact of accelerating climate change that science tells us is already certain to affect Providence. Climate change has long been acknowledged as a Building resilience means learning to manage ‘‘wicked problem’’ for planners and policy makers. the risks climate change will bring. It means learning to act rather than react to what we – Richard Lazarus, “Super Wicked Problems and know is coming. It starts with assessing Climate Change: Restraining the Present to Liberate the Future”, 2008 vulnerability and proceeds with taking action to limit the risks. Rhode Island’s First Nations thrived for thousands of years by embracing their relationship to Narragansett Bay. Through storytelling, from elders to youth, history was always present. Tribal communities understood how natural assets like forests, floodplains, and wetlands protected their communities. This understanding was their great strength and the cornerstone of their resilience. Colonial settlement and industrial development generally exploited natural resources rather than heeding the tribal knowledge of the Narragansetts and Wampanoags among others. For much of the 19th and 20th centuries, Providence’s expansive growth meant eliminating the natural assets that protected the city and building extensive infrastructure on what were salt marshes and floodplains. “Where will we go when the water rises” presents a provocative question facing the city (RI Sea Grant). Towards a Resilient Providence, February 2021 OVERVIEW Executive Summary | 2 Consequently, storm events repeatedly and catastrophically flooded—and impacted—Providence. Because of several mid-century hurricanes, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers built the Fox Point Hurricane Barrier—the highest in the country. The multiple-layered threats associated with climate will defy expensive but relatively simple solutions like the hurricane barrier. Over several decades, the Rhode Island state agencies and the City of Providence pursued numerous studies and plans addressing largely infrastructure vulnerability from multiple hazards. More recently, city planning and climate justice initiatives are giving greater attention to issues of equity and social vulnerability and have expanded the scope of work being undertaken that addresses issues of vulnerability associated with climate threats. This work shows that adapting to climate change is a complex endeavor. The first step in understanding this complexity is to review this work and broadly assess what we know and do not know about Providence’s vulnerability to climate change threats. With this clear objective in mind, the Providence Resilience Partnership (PRP), a group of civic and business leaders deeply concerned about the flooding threats of climate change asked the University of Rhode Island Coastal Resources Center to research what we know about the current situation, the climate challenges, efforts underway, and a host of recommendations that have been put forward to enhance resilience policy and practice to move Toward a Resilient Providence. Key Findings Overarching Understand that increasing risk and vulnerability of changing climate affects different places and people throughout the city. Providence is threatened by flooding, with climate change increasing that risk. This plays out differently in various parts of the city. The port area, at the head of the bay and south of the hurricane barrier, is extremely vulnerable to storm surge and rising seas. Downtown, while protected by the hurricane barrier for extreme storm surges, is vulnerable to extreme and rising tides affecting this low-lying area. In the Woonasquatucket River Corridor, the river floods meet coastal tides in addition to upland flooding throughout the watershed. Frontline communities, some of which are in low tree canopy neighborhoods, are disproportionately affected by heat and flooding. Develop comprehensive strategies with citywide stakeholder engagement. Preparation for increased flooding in Providence (and at the state level) cuts across many agencies, many sets of regulations, and many core