2017: A YEAR IN REVIEW, 2018: THE YEAR AHEAD 2017: A YEAR IN REVIEW, 2018: THE YEAR AHEAD Introduction from Alex Deane, UK Head of Public Affairs 2017 was the most unpredictable and tumultuous year in politics since… 2016. A snap election; a Tory campaign gone awry; Corbyn adept and relatively successful; challenges to capitalism; crucial Brexit summit after crucial Brexit summit. With the exception of a snap election – something the Prime Minister seems rather unlikely to repeat – it seems that 2018 may very well hold much of the same. In the snapshots that follow from the FTI UK Public Affairs team, we hope that you find food for thought about what may await us in 2018. I think that there are three broad themes to contemplate: Brexit: even the most fanatical of political obsessives might be feeling a touch of fatigue by now – if that describes your feeling, I’m afraid that I bring scant comfort. We are still in the foothills of the Brexit process, with well-established EU negotiating precedents pointing to resolutions being reached in the 59th minute of the 11th hour. That of course means that we may enjoy or endure a whole year of Brexit jostling in 2018 without positions actually being finalised until Q1 2019. Nationalism: John McDonnell told the Labour Party Conference, “have no doubt: rail, water, energy, the Royal Mail: we are taking them back”. The Conservative Party did not address Labour’s economic agenda during the 2017 General Election, wrongly thinking that relying on mistrust of Corbyn and talk of a “magic money tree” would deliver success. This is not likely to be repeated: close analysis of Labour’s economic plans is guaranteed in 2017, and McDonnell seems determined to hand over ammunition. From a business perspective: if the explicit threat of nationalisation in your sector doesn’t motivate you to speak up, then presumably you never will. The politics of the personal: the PM lost a Defence Secretary this year and her Deputy in all but name is subject to persistent attack. Numerous backbenchers are the subject of allegations, some thus far undisclosed, leading to effective absence from the House and the withdrawal of the Whip. These developments reflect a trend towards wider social scrutiny of behaviour which will be welcomed – but without a majority and with every vote counting, the PM will be watching these issues exceptionally closely in 2018. For all the international questions of state affecting her administration, the biggest challenges facing it could be historic – or recent – personal behaviour of officeholders and backbenchers. We hope that you enjoy our snapshots. Whatever 2018 may hold for you and yours, we hope that you have a restful break – and we stand ready to help meet your public affairs needs throughout the year. 2017: A YEAR IN REVIEW, 2018: THE YEAR AHEAD 2017: MONTH-BY-MONTH March – Lord Heseltine is sacked following his rebellion against the government on the Brexit Bill. Philip Hammond delivers HIGHLIGHTS his first Budget as Chancellor – and the last to be held in January – The special relationship is shown to be alive and springtime - as think tank The Resolution Foundation assesses well as the Prime Minister visits the USA and literally gives the that the UK is in its worst decade for pay growth for 210 years. newly sworn in President Trump a helping hand. Her refusal to A U-turn on Hammond’s announcement on raising National condemn Trump over the “Muslim ban” is criticised from all Insurance contributions swiftly follows while his predecessor sides back home, as is her decision to invite him to a state visit. George Osborne takes up a sixth job as Editor of the Evening Millions take to the streets in protest for the Women’s March. Standard. Nicola Sturgeon’s call for a second Scottish Ivan Rogers resigns as Britain’s ambassador to the European Independence Referendum is rejected. Terror strikes in the Union and Theresa May sets out her plans for a Hard Brexit in heart of Westminster as six people die and at least forty others the Lancaster House speech. The British Red Cross describe are injured. The Brexit Bill is passed and Article 50 triggered, the situation in England’s hospitals as a “humanitarian crisis”. starting the formal EU withdrawal process. Power sharing in Northern Ireland collapses following the April – Theresa May surprises everyone by returning from her resignation of Martin McGuinness. The UK Supreme Court Easter break to call a snap election. Her lead in the polls is huge rules against the government’s Brexit appeal case by a 8 to 3 and the Tories embark on a presidential-style campaign. Britain decision, stating that parliament must vote to trigger article 50. goes a full day without using coal power. London’s Garden February – MPs vote by a majority of 384 to allow the Prime Bridge is no more, as Sadiq Khan withdraws funding. Minister to get Brexit underway, with Labour MP Clive Lewis May – Ohhhhhh Jeremy Corbyn spells trouble for May and resigning from the shadow cabinet over his party’s decision things go from bad to worse for her with the publication of the to whip the vote. Government publishes a white paper setting Conservative party manifesto. Despite this, the Conservatives out its plans as Tony Blair makes a speech in London calling on make gains in local elections held across the UK. The country is opponents of Brexit to “rise up”. The Tories achieve a historic rocked by a terror attack in Manchester followed up by another by-election win in Copeland as Labour hold Stoke. The Queen in London just weeks later and the UK stops sharing information marks her 65th anniversary as sovereign. FTI Consulting, Inc. 1 2017: A YEAR IN REVIEW, 2018: THE YEAR AHEAD with the US, following leaks to the media. A ransomware cyber- orders the Brexit Secretary to face a Commons Committee attack causes major disruption across the UK. In France, after he refuses to hand them over. The UK loses its seat on Emmanuel Macron beats Marine Le Pen to become the youngest the International Court of Justice. The Paradise Papers reveal president in the history of the country. secrets of offshore investments. The long-awaited Industrial Strategy is published along with four sector deals. It coincides June – Britain goes to the polls, with bad news for May (and with Hammond’s first autumn Budget, the centrepiece of which those hoping to oust Jeremy Corbyn). Its not the end of May is meant to be housing. in June though, as she manages to get the numbers she needs by making a £1bn confidence-and-supply deal with the DUP. December – Early problems in Brussels as Theresa May and Among those she welcomes into the Cabinet is Michael Gove, Jean-Claude Juncker fail to reach an agreement on key points making quite the comeback as the Environment Secretary. including the Northern Ireland border are later solved in a blow The #LibDemFightBack is not enough to save Tim Farron, who to hard line Brexiteers. UK inflation reaches a six year high. resigns and is later replaced by Sir Vince Cable. The SNP also Government suffers a defeat in the Commons as MPs vote to loses vote share as Labour makes gains in Scotland. Things give Parliament a say on the final Brexit deal. swiftly move on from the election: the tragedy of Grenfell fire Laura Sainsbury – Director takes place less than a week later with 71 fatalities. Temperatures soar as a heatwave takes over, with the UK experiencing its hottest day since 1976. Our events in 2017: thank you! We would like to thank those who have joined us as special July – The latest Brexit talks end without agreement on EU guests at our roundtable events over the course of the year, citizens’ rights or the divorce bill. Crime is up according to including: Deputy Director at the Office of Life Sciences Luisa the latest ONS figures. The case of Charlie Gard dominates Stewart, Shadow Economic Secretary to the Treasury Jonny headlines with Trump weighing in from across the pond. Reynolds MP, PPS to the Department for Exiting the European August – In a blow for Labour north of the border, Kezia Union Jeremy Quin MP, Shadow Brexit Secretary Rt Hon Dugdale resigns as Leader of the Scottish Labour Party. The Sir Keir Starmer MP, Treasury Select Committee Member Duke of Edinburgh also withdraws from public life, carrying out Wes Streeting MP, Shadow Housing Secretary Rt Hon John his final official engagement. The chimes of Big Ben fall silent as Healey MP, New Statesman Special Correspondent Stephen renovations to the Palace of Westminster begin. Bush, Shadow DUP Spokesman Ian Paisley MP, Brexit Minister Lord Callanan, Treasury Select Committee Member Stephen September – Terrorists fail to strike at Parsons Green tube. Hammond MP, former Energy Minister Rt Hon the Lord Differences over defence contracts cause things to turn sour Barker of Battle, Head of Business Stakeholder Engagement in the special relationship. MPs back the EU Withdrawal Bill at the Department for Exiting the European Union Theo despite critics calling it a “power grab” and the Prime Minister Leonard, the Brazil Chamber of Commerce, Sky News’ Kay flies to Florence to propose a two year transition period. Bad Burley, London Correspondent for Die Welt Thomas Kielinger news as the UK’s credit rating is downgraded by Moody’s from OBE, Head of Business Stakeholder Engagement at the Aa1 to Aa2. There are also problems for Uber, as Transport for Department for International Trade Rosa Wilkinson, Director London revokes its license.