Business Outlook Survey ResultsРезультати of surveys опитувань of Vinnitsa керівників region * enterprisesпідприєм managersств м. ofКиєва Ternopil regarding і Київської O blasttheir області щодоbusiness їх ділових expectations очікувань* * Q3 2019 I квартал 2018Q2 2018року *This survey only reflects the opinions of respondents in Ternopil oblast (top managers of *Надані результати є відображенням лише думки респондентів – керівників підприємств Вінницької companies) who were polled in Q3 2019, and does not represent NBU forecasts or estimates області в IІ кварталі 2018 року і не є прогнозами та оцінками Національного банку України. Business Outlook Survey of Ternopil Oblast Q3 2019 A survey carried out in Ternopil oblast in Q3 2019 showed that respondents had high expectations that the Ukrainian economy would grow, and that their companies would develop over the next 12 months. Respondents expected that inflation would be moderate and that the hryvnia would depreciate more slowly. The top managers of companies said they expected that over the next 12 months: . the output of Ukrainian goods and services would grow at a fast pace: the balance of expectations was 60.0% (this was one of the highest assessments across the regions) compared with 45.5% in Q2 2019 (Figure 1) and 30.5% across Ukraine . the growth in prices for consumer goods and services would decelerate: 90.0% of respondents expected the inflation rate to be lower than 10% (compared with 81.8% in the previous quarter and 73.3% across Ukraine). Respondents referred to production costs as the main inflation driver . the domestic currency would depreciate at a slower pace: 40.0% of respondents (compared with 70.0% in the previous quarter) expected the hryvnia to weaken against the US dollar, with the figure across Ukraine being 69.0% . the financial and economic standings of their companies would improve significantly: the balance of expectations was 55.6% compared to 30.0% in the previous quarter (see Table) and 20.0% across Ukraine. total sales would grow at a fast pace: the balance of responses was 66.7% compared with 54.5% across Ukraine (see Table). Respondents also expected an increase in external sales (the balance of responses was 40.0% compared with 0.0% across Ukraine). The balances of responses across Ukraine were 27.1% and 22.7% respectively . investment in machinery, equipment and tools would increase more slowly: the balance of responses was 11.1% compared to 45.5% in the previous quarter. Investment in construction was also expected to decrease: the balance of responses was (-11.1%) compared with 9.1% in the previous quarter. Overall, respondents expected investment spending to rise across Ukraine, the balances of responses being 17.7% and 9.3% respectively . staff numbers would decrease: the balance of responses was (-11.1%) compared to (-18.2%) in Q2 2019 (Figure 4). Across Ukraine, staff numbers were expected to increase (2.2%) . both purchase and selling prices would grow further: the balances of responses were 70.0% and 55.6% respectively (compared with 72.7% and 54.5% in Q2 2019) (Figure 6). Raw material and supplies prices and wage costs were referred to as the main selling price drivers (Figure 7) . the growth in per-unit production costs and in wage costs per staff member would decelerate: the balances of responses were 50.0% for each (compared to 63.6% and 72.7% respectively in Q2 2019) (Figures 4 and 6). The unstable political situation was cited as the main drag on the ability of companies to boost production (respondents said that the impact of this factor had strengthened markedly) (Figure 5). Respondents reported expectations of a significant increase in their borrowing needs in the near future (Figure 8). A total of 66.7% of the respondents who planned to take out corporate loans usually opted for domestic currency loans. Respondents said that lending conditions had softened (Figure 9). Respondents cited high loan rates as the main factor that deterred them from taking out corporate loans (Figure 10). All of the respondents said that they had encountered no difficulties in effecting transactions with funds deposited in bank accounts (97.4% across Ukraine). Assessments of financial and economic standings as of the time of the survey (Figure 3) . The current financial and economic standings of companies were assessed as good: the balance of responses was 20.0% compared to 36.4% in Q2 2019 and 9.5% across Ukraine. Stocks of finished goods remained at a level lower than the normal one: the balance of responses was (-16.7%) compared to (-14.3%) in Q2 2019. Companies were operating on the verge of their production capacity: the balance of responses was 0.0% compared with 18.2% in Q2 2019. 2 Business Outlook Survey of Ternopil Oblast Q3 2019 Survey Details1,2 Respondents in terms of main economic Respondents in terms of enterprise size based Respondents in terms of business activities, % on staff number, % activities,% Other Exporters only 20.0 Large (more Neither exporters 12.5 than 250 nor importers Agriculture persons) Small (up to 50 37.5 Transport and 40.0 20.0 persons) communications 30.0 Imports only 10.0 12.5 Wholesale and retail trade Both exporters 10.0 Medium (from 51 and up and importers Manufacturing to 250 persons) 37.5 20.0 50.0 . Period: 6 August through 30 August 2019. A total of 10 companies were polled. A representative sample was generated on the basis of the agricultural sector. Business outlook index for next 12 months in terms of regions,% Business Outlook Index for Next 12 Months in Terms of Regions3, % Rivne Oblast Volyn Oblast Chernihiv Oblast 138.6 127.1 Zhytomyr 119 Sumy Oblast Oblast 112 121.9 Kyiv and Lviv Oblast Kyiv Oblast 125.8 Poltav a Oblast Kharkiv Oblast Ternopil Oblast 121.3 108.3 110.8 122.2 Khmelny tskyi Cherkasy Luhansk Oblast Iv ano-Frankivsk Oblast Vinny tsia Oblast Zakarpattia Oblast 89.7 Oblast 108.3 Oblast 109.4 no data 100.8 Donetsk 115.6 Cherniv tsi Oblast Kirov ohrad Oblast Dnipropetrov sk Oblast Oblast 110.2 95.2 110.3 no data Zaporizhia My kolaiv Oblast Odesa 105 Oblast Oblast 119.9 113.5 Kherson Oblast 113.8 minimum 89.7 1 quartile 108.6 1 quarter 2 quartile (median) 112.7 Crimea 2 quarter 3 quartile 121.0 no data 3 quarter maximum 138.6 4 quarter Ukraine 115.3 *a quartile is the v alue of the BOI where an ordered sample is div ided into f our equal-sized subgroups **a median is the v alue of the BOI in the middle of an ordered sampled where the sample is div ided into two equal-sized subgroups Table. The Business Outlook Index of Companies in Ternopil Oblast and Its Components Balances of responses, % Expectations over next 12 months for Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Financial and economic standings 23.1 53.3 40.0 30.0 55.6 Total sales 53.8 73.3 80.0 54.5 66.7 Investment in construction -16.7 30.8 22.2 9.1 -11.1 Investment in machinery, equipment and tools -16.7 42.9 60.0 45.5 11.1 Staff numbers 7.1 26.7 -11.1 -18.2 -11.1 1 This sample was generated in proportion to the contribution of each region and each economic activity to Ukraine’s gross value added. 2 Data for totals and components may be subject to rounding effects. 3 The business outlook index (BOI) is an aggregate indicator for expected business development over the next 12 months. It is calculated using the balances of respondents' responses regarding changes in the financial and economic standings of their companies and future economic activity. 3 Business Outlook Survey of Ternopil Oblast Q3 2019 Figure 1 Figure 2 Output expectations for next 12 months, Assessment of consumer price drivers, percentage of responses percentage of responses 100 100 0 20 40 60 80 Production costs 80 80 60 60 Household income 40 40 Exchange rate 20 20 Tax changes 0 0 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Budgetary social Output will decrease spending Output will be unchanged Output will increase Global prices Balance of expectations (right scale) Q3 19 Q2 19 Supply (availability) of money Figure 3 Figure 4 Economic activity as of the time of the survey, Staff level and wage cost expectations for next 12 balance of responses months, balance of responses 80 100 60 80 40 60 20 40 0 20 -20 0 -40 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 -20 Financial and economic standings Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Finished goods stocks Staff level expectations Wage costs per staff member Unutilized production capacity Figure 5 Figure 6 Assessment of factors that impede output Expectations of producer prices for next 12 growth, percentage of responses months, balance of responses 0 20 40 60 80 100 Political situation Lack of working assets 80 High energy prices 60 Corruption Weak demand 40 High raw material and supplies prices Tax burden 20 Limited availability of loan 0 Qualified staff shortage Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Purchase prices Exchange rate fluctuations Selling prices Per-unit production costs Regulatory burden Q3 19 Insufficient production Q2 19 capacity 4 Business Outlook Survey of Ternopil Oblast Q3 2019 Figure 7 Figure 8 Expectations of borrowing needs and intentions to Assessment of selling price drivers, take out corporate loans in the near future, percentage of responses percentage of responses 0 20 40 60 80 100 75 75 Raw material and supplies prices 60 60 Wage costs 45 45 Energy prices 30 30 Global prices Demand 15 15 Loan rates 0 0 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Tax burden Percentage of respondents who intend to take out loans Borrowing needs (balance of responses, right scale) Domestic competition Q3 19 Q2 19 Exchange rate Figure 9 Figure 10 Expectations of lending conditions for next 12 Assessment of factors that could deter months, balance of responses* companies from taking out loans, percentage of responses 60 0 20 40 60 80 50 40 High loan rates 30 20 Other funding sources 10 0 Complicated paperwork -10 Uncertainty about ability to -20 meet debt obligations as Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 they fall due *The dif f erence between the percentages of responses “tightened” and “eased” Q3 19 Exchange rate fluctuations Q2 19 Collateral requirements 5 Business Outlook Survey of Ternopil Oblast Q3 2019 Annex Key Indicators of Social and Economic Development of Ternopil Oblast in 2014 – 2019 % of the same period of the previous year, unless stated otherw ise 2019 No.