Call for Papers "Geopolitics & Values: what is the real power of the EU?" THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH WAR: A NEW REALITY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EU Khachatryan HASMIK Brussels, December 2020 Geopolitics & Values: what is the real power of the EU? THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH WAR: A NEW REALITY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EU © Institute of European Democrats, 2020 Rue Montoyer 25 1000 Brussels Belgium Web: www.iedonline.eu This Research Paper was elaborated on the basis of independent research. The opinions expressed here are those of the Contractor and do not represent the point of view of the Institute of European Democrats. With the financial support of the European Parliament 2 Geopolitics & Values: what is the real power of the EU? THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH WAR: A NEW REALITY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EU EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 2004 the EU launched the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), and since 2009 the Eastern Partnership policy has been in place as a specific dimension of the ENP. The EU policy towards the Eastern and Southern neighbourhood has been guided by the objective of having a “ring of friends” in the neighbourhoods. However, instead of the desired “ring of friends”, the EU has faced a “ring of fire” in North Africa and the Middle East, and in the Eastern Partnership area. The Eastern neighbourhood has been, indeed, highly affected by complex and prolonged frozen and armed conflicts; the recently erupted Nagorno-Karabakh conflict constitutes one of those. The devastating war in Nagorno-Karabakh, in fact, has entailed major geo-strategic reshufflings in the South Caucasus. Meanwhile, the EU’s weak response to the war has clearly demonstrated the Union is far from being a “geopolitical”; i.e. strategic-security actor in the region. As a result of the weak response, the EU is sidelined in the South Caucasus in strategic terms. Hasmik Khachatryan has studied Political Science at Yerevan State University (Armenia), Middle Eastern Studies at Lund University (Sweden), and European Politics at the College of Europe (Belgium). Her professional experience includes enrolment at the Association of Foreign Affairs (Sweden) as a Middle East Policy Analyst, and at the German Marshall Fund of the United States as a Policy Designers Fellow. 3 Geopolitics & Values: what is the real power of the EU? THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH WAR: A NEW REALITY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EU Table of contents 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 5 2. The strategic environment in the Eastern neighbourhood ................................................................ 6 2.1 The EU’s policy towards the Eastern neighbourhood ................................................................ 6 2.2 The root causes of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict ........................................................................... 7 2. 3 Why war? The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in Geopolitical context ...................................... 8 3. The new reality in the South Caucasus and the EU’s standing in the region .............................. 12 3.1 The EU’s response to the Nagorno-Karabakh war ................................................................... 12 3.2 The EU’s unutilised strategic power........................................................................................... 12 3.3 The EU’s standing in the South Caucasus ................................................................................ 14 4. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 16 5. References ............................................................................................................................................ 17 Table of figures Figure 1 Map of Nagorno-Karabakh ...................................................................................................... 7 Figure 2 Azerbaijan-Turkey oil and gas pipelines .............................................................................. 10 Figure 3 EU-27 imports of petroleum oil from main trading partners ............................................. 13 Figure 4 EU-27 imports of natural gas from main trading partners .................................................. 13 Table of acronyms ENP European Neighbourhood Policy EU European Union NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe UK The United Kingdom US The United States of America 4 Geopolitics & Values: what is the real power of the EU? THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH WAR: A NEW REALITY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EU 1. Introduction The world order established after the fall of the “Iron Curtain” has been diminishing; new powers have been gaining strength and growing into regional and international politics. The security architecture in the EU’s Southern and Eastern neighbourhood has been crumbling and hence posing threats to the wider European security and stability. The EU has faced a “ring of fire” (Taylor, 2015) instead of the desired “ring of friends” (Taylor, 2015) in the neighbourhoods. In fact, one of the lengthy and complex conflicts in the Eastern neighbourhood- the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict recently erupted into a full-scale war. At the end of September 2020 Azerbaijan, heavily backed by Turkey in political and military terms, launched a large-scale military offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh. The renewed hostilities quickly escalated into a full-fledged war with unprecedented intensity and magnitude. Lasting for over six weeks, the devastating war culminated with the Russia-brokered ceasefire statement and the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. The war, in fact, has entailed fundamental geo-strategic reshufflings in the South Caucasus. In the meantime, the EU’s response to the war has vividly showcased that the Union falls short of being the aspired “geopolitical”- strategic actor in the South Caucasus leaving the EU sidelined in the region. Respectively, the research paper reflects on the strategic environment in the Eastern neighbourhood, precisely in the South Caucasus, i.e. provides situational awareness- discusses the root causes of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and the main triggers of the war. The paper further elaborates on the EU’s power position in the South Caucasus in the face of the shifted balance of power and offers concrete policy recommendations concerning the measures the EU could effectively undertake aimed at promoting stability in the region. 5 Geopolitics & Values: what is the real power of the EU? THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH WAR: A NEW REALITY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EU 2. The strategic environment in the Eastern neighbourhood ➢ 2.1 The EU’s policy towards the Eastern neighbourhood The global and regional balance of power established after the end of the Cold War have been rapidly shifting, and the global strategic environment has been characterised by growing insecurity, instability, and unpredictability. Against the backdrop of the newly emerging world order, the EU has aspired to maintain its influence in world affairs and to acquire power- to gain strategic autonomy (European External Action Service, 2016), so to be adequately equipped to address, contain and deter security threats and risks posed to the EU, and to co-shape the rules of global and regional order. Respectively, the security architecture in the EU’s Southern and Eastern neighbourhood has been diminishing; the neighbourhoods have been engulfed in thorny and prolonged conflicts. Acknowledging the risks the armed and unresolved conflicts could pose to the EU’s security, the EU has come forward with a reviewed European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) putting stress on promoting stability and resilience in the Southern and Eastern neighbourhood (European Commission, 2015). Furthermore, conflict prevention and resolution have been enshrined among the key strategic priorities in the EU’s Global Strategy adopted in 2016 (European External Action Service, 2016), “The EU will engage in a practical and principled way in peacebuilding, concentrating our efforts in surrounding regions to the east and south, while considering engagement further afield on a case by case basis”. In addition, taking office since December 2019, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has made a firm commitment to running a “Geopolitical EU” (European Parliamentary Research Service, 2020). The primary objectives set in the framework of the reviewed European Neighbourhood Policy, elaborated and enshrined in the Global Strategy, and voiced by President von der Leyen enable to conclude that the EU has strived to become an influential strategic- security actor in the Southern and Eastern neighbourhood. Meanwhile, as the war in Nagorno- Karabakh apparently showcased, the EU falls short of being a “geopolitical”, i.e. strategic-security actor in the Eastern neighbourhood. In 2004 the EU launched the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), and since 2009 the Eastern Partnership policy has been in place as a specific dimension of the ENP. The primary focus areas of the Eastern Partnership policy have constituted democracy promotion, economic integration, and facilitation of people to people contacts (Council of the European Union, 2017). Meanwhile, the security aspect,