Environmental Management DOI 10.1007/s00267-016-0759-2 Farmers’ Options to Address Water Scarcity in a Changing Climate: Case Studies from two Basins in Mediterranean Chile 1 2 3 4 Lisandro Roco ● David Poblete ● Francisco Meza ● George Kerrigan Received: 17 December 2015 / Accepted: 10 August 2016 © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2016 Abstract Irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean areas faces groups: investments for water accumulation, modernization tremendous challenges because of its exposure to hydro- of irrigation systems, rationalization of water use, and climatic variability, increasing competition for water from partnership activities. Using a multinomial logit model these different sectors, and the possibility of a climatic change. In strategies were related to socioeconomic and productive this context, efficient management of water resources characteristics. Results show that gender and farm size are emerges as a critical issue. This requires the adoption of relevant for investments, implementation and improvement technological innovations, investment in infrastructure, of irrigation systems. For all the strategies described, access adequate institutional arrangements, and informed decision to weather information was a relevant element. The study makers. To understand farmers’ perceptions and their provides empirical evidence of a recent increase in the implementation of climate change adaptation strategies with importance assigned to climate factors by producers and regards to water management, primary information was adaptation options that can be supported by agricultural captured in the Limarí and Maule river basins in Chile. policy. Farmers identified stressors for agriculture; climate change, droughts, and lack of water appeared as the most relevant Keywords Agricultural production ● Chile ● Drought ● stressors compared to others productive, economic, and Multinomial logit ● Stressors ● Water scarcity institutional factors; revealing a rising relevance of climate related factors. While most producers perceived climate changes in recent years (92.9 %), a significant proportion (61.1 %) claim to have experienced drought, whereas only a fraction (31.9 %) have implemented a strategy to deal with Introduction this situation. Identified actions were classified in four Water availability plays a key role in agricultural production systems. Agriculture uses—consumed and non-consumed * Lisandro Roco fractions—more than two-thirds of global fresh water and [email protected] 90 % of this share is used by developing countries. Fresh 1 water use is expected to rise another 25 % by 2030 due to an Department of Forestry, Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, increase in population from 6.6 billion to about 8 billion by Universidad Católica del Maule, PO Box 617, Av. San Miguel # 3605, Talca, Chile 2030 (Misra 2013). Additionally, climate change is emer- ging as one of the main threats for food security in devel- 2 School of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile oping countries (Comoé and Siegrist 2015). The 3 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defines this Centro Interdisciplinario de Cambio Global, Departamento de “ Ecosistemas y Medioambiente, Facultad de Agronomía e phenomenon as a change in the state of the climate that can Ingeniería Forestal, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability Santiago, Chile of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, 4 Independent Consultant on Agricultural Economics, Talca, Chile typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in Environmental Management climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a argue that droughts will be longer and more severe in the result of human activity” (IPCC 2007; 2014). Unevenness future; therefore, water governance in water-scarce areas of in water availability and quality will affect society in many Chile will be the most important issue to address in future ways; changes in climatic variables, such as temperature water management plans in order to appropriately adapt to and precipitation, have significant impacts on water potential impacts of climate change in Chile. Water man- resources and hence on societies and ecosystems (Mata and agement decisions must be based on a sound knowledge of Budhooram 2007). Wang et al. (2014) argue that water the hydrology of the system that will be affected. A lack of demand in agriculture will be affected more heavily than understanding of hydrological connections may produce other sectors, given that irrigation includes the major por- unforeseen effects that could affect third parties such as tion of global consumptive water use, the increase of water small farmers (Arumí et al. 2013) and worst of all, could led demand in irrigation may cause severe stress on water to maladaptation processes. In Chile, The Water Resources resources. Directorate (Direccioń General de Aguas, DGA), is the These conditions are especially relevant for Mediterra- government organization in charge of the water resources of nean ecosystems. While all Mediterranean-type climates the country, the DGA and other relevant public and private present bi-seasonality in temperature and precipitation, institutions presents competition across different scales and there are important differences between northern and levels of interaction associated with water resources gov- southern hemispheres, it is expectable that climatically ernance (Valdes-Pinedá et al. 2014). induced land degradation would be less rapid in Chile, The recent study of Vicuna et al. (2014) demonstrates South Africa, and Australia than in California and the that in recent years, an unusually long drought has changed Mediterranean basin (Davis et al. 1996). Nevertheless, the expectations with regard to climate variability in the region. Mediterranean condition is a result of the global climatic This situation has led to dramatically lower reservoir levels forcing on the climate system of the Central Chile region, and continuous reductions in water supply. In addition, due the corresponding interannual variability is quite important to the already high levels of irrigation efficiency and large for water resources management, especially for agriculture amount of acreage devoted to crops with high water in river basins with high prevalence of smallholder farming requirements, the effectiveness of the portfolio options systems. In this regard, García de Jalón et al. (2014) argue available to farmers to adapt to these stressed conditions is that agricultural water management needs to evolve given limited. the possible increase of water scarcity in Mediterranean On the other hand, adaptive capacity is defined as the basins. capacity of actors to respond to variability and create In Chile, the agricultural sector represents 73 % of con- changes in the state of the system (Nelson et al. 2007; sumptive water use, allowing the irrigation of 1.1 million Adger et al. 2005). The presence of adaptive capacity leads hectares and generating exports for 22 % of the national to a better ability to cope with climate risk (Clarvis and total (2011 data) and employing about 9 % of the workforce Allan 2014). As is stated by Zilberman et al. (2012), (Chilean Ministry of Public Works 2012). The agricultural adaptation can be defined as changes in the private and sector accounted for 3 % of national GDP in 2011. A major public decision-making process with respect to resource challenge in this sector is the increase of water productivity, allocation; therefore, adaptation strategies will include both which represents an improvement on irrigation technology public and private actions. In this sense, Kiparsky et al. and the development of infrastructure for conduction and (2012) argue that water decision makers at all levels are storage of water, considering that improvements in irriga- already familiar with managing a source strongly affected tion technology can reduce the use of water by 50 %. Fol- by weather and climate. Additionally, it is expectable that lowing Pereira et al. (2012 and 2009), it is necessary to less demanding options, in terms of time and investment, increase the beneficial water use and to reduce the non- can be implemented in the first stages. Berger and Troost beneficial water use in agriculture. A combination of tech- (2014) differentiate short-term and long-term adjustments; nical, managerial, legal, and investment options are needed the former are typically extensions of existing schemes to help farmers produce more with less water (FAO 2013). dealing with climate variability and do not carry mayor Additionally, Chile is highly impacted by climate costs. Conversely, the latter imply large changes in pro- variability associated to El Niño Southern Oscillation duction systems and land use; they often require new (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Ancapichun institutional arrangements or investments in infrastructure and Garces-Vargas 2015); these climatic phenomena pro- and may thereby lead to structural breaks. duce multi-year droughts that affect Chilean agriculture. According to the analysis of Brechét et al. (2013) some Beyond these somewhat predictable oscillations, climate adaptation measures are undertaken by the government to change is introducing a high degree of hydrological contribute to the public good (the macro level), while others uncertainty (Arumí et al. 2013). Valdes-Pinedá et al. (2014) are motivated by the self-interest of individual economic