What does true regime change mean? Can democracy really be exported? With the end of the military campaign in Iraq, Regime Change It’s Been Done Before these questions are taking on a new urgency. So is the need to learn from the past. These essays, by an international group of contributors commissioned by Policy Exchange, examine case studies ranging from the post-war reshaping of Germany and Japan to the current situation in Afghanistan. While each case provides its individual lessons, certain themes recur. One is the sheer scale of commitment required for full and effective democratisation. Another is the constant and difficult trade-off between security and reform. These essays are highly topical, but also of longer-term relevance. As Lord Hurd points out in his Foreword, Iraq may be the latest case of regime change, but it is unlikely to be the last. Regime Change £10 It’s Been Done Before ISBN 1 84275 086 0 Policy Exchange Clutha House Edited by 10 Storey's Gate Roger Gough London SW1P 3AY Tel: 020 7340 2660 Policy Exchange Foreword by www.policyexchange.org.uk Douglas Hurd regime change.qxd 13/05/2003 12:24 Page 1 About Policy Exchange Policy Exchange is an independent think tank whose mission is to develop and promote new policy ideas which will foster a free society based on limited government, strong communities, personal freedom and national selfconfidence. Working in partnership with independent academics and experts, we commission original research into important issues of policy and use the findings to develop practical recommendations for government. Policy Exchange seeks to learn lessons from the approaches adopted in other countries and to assess their relevance to the UK context. We aim to engage with people and groups across the political spectrum and not be restricted by outdated notions of left and right. Policy Exchange is a registered charity (no: 1096300) and is funded by individuals, grantmaking trusts and companies. Trustees Chairman of the Board: Michael Gove Camilla Cavendish Iain Dale Robin Edwards John Micklethwait Alice Thompson Rachel Whetstone regime change.qxd 14/05/2003 12:21 Page 2 With thanks to Lord Black of Crossharbour for his generous support of this publication. regime change.qxd 13/05/2003 12:24 Page 3 Regime Change It’s Been Done Before Edited by Roger Gough Foreword by Douglas Hurd regime change.qxd 13/05/2003 12:24 Page 4 First published in May 2003 by Policy Exchange Policy Exchange Clutha House 10 Storey's Gate London SW1P 3AY Tel: 020 7340 2660 www.policyexchange.org.uk © policyexchange 2003 All rights reserved ISBN 1 84275 086 0 Typeset by Politico’s Design, [email protected] regime change.qxd 13/05/2003 12:24 Page 5 Contents Contributors 7 Foreword 11 Rt. Hon Lord Hurd of Westwell CH CBE Introduction: 15 The cost of ambition Roger Gough 1 West Germany (194555): 37 From Zero Hour to regime change model Roger Gough 2 Japan (194552): 52 Revolution from above (interrupted) Roger Gough 3 Cambodia (199098): 66 The regime didn’t change Steve Heder regime change.qxd 13/05/2003 12:24 Page 6 4 South Africa (199094): 76 Regime change as democratisation Antoinette Handley 5 Haiti (199496): 92 The perils of a rush for the exits James Morrell 6 East Timor (19992002): 108 The birth of an independent and democratic nationstate? Andrew Renton-Green 7 The West Balkans (1995): 127 Beyond change to transformation Kristie D Evenson and Petar E Doric 8 Afghanistan (2001): 139 After the Taliban: true regime change? Alexander Evans Appendix 156 The regime change checklist regime change.qxd 13/05/2003 12:24 Page 7 Contributors Petar Doric serves as a consultant on political analysis for South- East Europe, particularly focused on Croatia. Throughout the 1990s, he worked as a journalist and war correspondent for the Feral Tribune, the leading political magazine in Croatia, where he investi- gated war crimes in the region, human rights abuses and privatisation issues. He holds a MA in International Relations from New York City College. Alexander Evans was a research director at Policy Exchange until 22 April 2003 and is an associate fellow at Chatham House. He read international relations at the London School of Economics. He then specialised in South Asian politics, researching at Bristol and SOAS. He has also been an adjunct fellow at the Stimson Center, Washington DC. He has published in journals including Foreign Policy and The Washington Quarterly. He commentates on Asia for BBC World, CNN and NBC. During 2002, Alexander worked as a UN monitor in post-Taliban Afghanistan and as an OSCE monitor in Macedonia. He has previously been an international policy regime change.qxd 13/05/2003 12:24 Page 8 8 Regime Change adviser at the Adam Smith Institute, worked in the private office of Sir Donald Irvine, and director of studies at the London-based Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation. He sits on the editorial boards of Asian Affairs and The Round Table. Kristie Evenson serves as Deputy Director for Security with EastWest Institute focusing on South-East Europe and Central Eurasia. She previously served as head of the South-East Europe Practice at Eurasia Group, a political research and consultancy firm. She has focused on the region for ten years, specialising in security, human rights, and economic and political transition issues. She has worked for UNDP, CRS, and the OSCE throughout the region documenting human rights violations, building the capacity of local NGOs and legal rights networks, and developing policies for refugee return and economic revitalisation. She has a Masters in International Affairs from Columbia. Roger Gough is a research fellow at Policy Exchange. He has worked as an international investment analyst for fifteen years, during which time he lived and worked in Japan (1988–91) and subsequently specialised in the European banking industry. At the 1997 General Election, he was Conservative candidate for the Dulwich and West Norwood constituency. He took a First in Philosophy, Politics and Economics at Magdalen College, Oxford. Antoinette Handley is Assistant Professor in the Politics department at the University of Toronto. Antoinette holds an M.Phil in International Relations from the University of Oxford and a Ph.D. in Politics from Princeton University. She has received numerous regime change.qxd 13/05/2003 12:24 Page 9 Contributors 9 academic awards and research grants including the Fulbright and Rhodes scholarships. Antoinette was previously Director of Studies at the South African Institute of International Affairs, where she remains a Research Associate. Her research interests include policy making and economic reform in new democracies, and the political economies of Africa (especially Southern and South Africa) and Latin America. Steve Heder is a politics lecturer at the School of Oriental and African Studies. He is a specialist on the politics of Asia, especially mainland South-East Asia, on which he has worked in various professional capacities since 1971. His recent publications include: Seven Candidates for Prosecution: Accountability for Crimes of the Khmer Rouge (Washington, DC: American University, 2001) and ‘Cambodian Elections in Historical Perspective,’ in John L. Viglen, ed., People and the 1998 Elections in Cambodia (Phnom Penh: ECR, 2002) Douglas Hurd served as the British Foreign Secretary from 1989- 1995. He was Minister of State in the Foreign Office and the Home Office and served as Secretary of State for Northern Ireland from 1984-85 and as Home Secretary from 1985-89. He was MP for Mid- Oxfordshire (later Witney) from 1974 to 1997 and was created a Life Peer in 1997. He was educated at Eton and Trinity College, Cambridge (where he took a First in History and was President of the Cambridge Union). He then joined the Diplomatic Service, and served in Peking, New York (the UN) and Rome. From 1968-1970 he ran Edward Heath’s private office, before acting as his Political Secretary at 10 Downing Street from 1970-1974. regime change.qxd 13/05/2003 12:24 Page 10 10 Regime Change James Morrell is director of the Haiti Democracy Project, before which he was research director of the Center for International Policy, a liberal think tank in Washington. He was an adviser to President Aristide at the Governors Island negotiations in 1993. In 2000 he observed Haiti’s legislative elections for the OAS. James received his Ph.D. in history from Harvard University in 1977. Andrew RentonGreen lectures part-time in international relations and terrorism at Victoria University, Wellington, New Zealand. He is also a fellow of the New Zealand Centre for Strategic Studies and the Asia Institute at University of Auckland. He joined the NZ Army in 1975. He was appointed Deputy Director of Defence Intelligence in 1987. He graduated from the Indonesian Army Command and Staff College and Indonesian Joint Services Staff College in 1989 when he was appointed NZ Defence Attaché to Indonesia and the Philippines. He retired from the Army in 1993. In 1995, he was appointed as Director and Divisional Manager of the Policy Planning Division in the Ministry of Defence and retired in 1999. In January and February 2002, he served as Expert Adviser to the United Nations General Prosecutor, UNTAET/ETTA, in East Timor. He has published widely on contemporary South-East Asia, focusing on Indonesia, and on regional terrorism and counter terrorism. regime change.qxd 13/05/2003 12:24 Page 11 Foreword Douglas Hurd Regime change is a new and ugly name for an ancient process – the toppling of a ruler because he has become repellent or dangerous either to his own people or to their neighbours or to both.