VicRoads 27 November 2012 Transport Modelling and Economic Analysis for the Kilmore-Wallan Bypass Planning Study Final Report AECOM Transport Modelling and Economic Analysis for the Kilmore-Wallan Bypass Planning Study - Final Report Transport Modelling and Economic Analysis for the Kilmore-Wallan Bypass Planning Study Final Report Prepared for VicRoads Prepared by AECOM Australia Pty Ltd Level 9, 8 Exhibition Street, Melbourne VIC 3000, Australia T +61 3 9653 1234 F +61 3 9654 7117 www.aecom.com ABN 20 093 846 925 27 November 2012 60250795 AECOM in Australia and New Zealand is certified to the latest version of ISO9001 and ISO14001. © AECOM Australia Pty Ltd (AECOM). All rights reserved. AECOM has prepared this document for the sole use of the Client and for a specific purpose, each as expressly stated in the document. No other party should rely on this document without the prior written consent of AECOM. 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Subject to the above conditions, this document may be transmitted, reproduced or disseminated only in its entirety. 27 November 2012 AECOM Transport Modelling and Economic Analysis for the Kilmore-Wallan Bypass Planning Study - Final Report Quality Information Transport Modelling and Economic Analysis for the Kilmore-Wallan Bypass Document Planning Study 60250795 Ref p:\60250795\6. draft docs\6.1 reports\5 final report\kilmore-wallan bypass transport modelling - final report - rev d.docx Date 27 November 2012 Prepared by Edward Yeung, Simon Quail Reviewed by Henry Le Revision History Authorised Revision Revision Details Date Name/Position Signature Christian Bode A 31/10/2012 Draft Final Report Associate Director B 12/11/2012 Draft Final Report Christian Bode Associate Director C 19/11/2012 Draft Final Report Christian Bode Associate Director D 27-Nov-2012 Final Report Christian Bode Associate Director 27 November 2012 Transport Modelling and Economic Analysis for the Kilmore-Wallan Bypass Planning AECOM Study - Final Report i Table of Contents Executive Summary ii 1.0 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Key objectives 2 1.3 Purpose and structure of this report 2 2.0 Model Structure 3 2.1 Model platform 3 2.2 Study area 3 2.3 Model structure 3 2.4 Base year 3 3.0 Development of the Zoning System and Road Network 5 3.1 Zoning system 5 3.2 Road network 7 4.0 Development of Zonal Demographic Data 11 4.1 Compilation of existing demographic data sources 11 5.0 2011 Base Year Model Development 20 5.1 Trip generation 20 5.2 Trip distribution 22 5.3 Trip assignment 23 5.4 Model convergence 24 5.5 Model validation 24 6.0 Forecasts of Future Traffic and Modelling of Bypass Options 35 6.1 Development of future base networks 35 6.2 Development of future year trip matrices 36 6.3 Traffic distribution adjustment in southern part of study area 41 6.4 Impact of relocation of the market and intermodal terminal facility 42 6.5 Modelling of options 42 6.6 Modelling results 44 6.7 Sensitivity testing 47 6.8 Overall network performance 48 7.0 Economic Assessment 50 8.0 Conclusion 51 9.0 Bibliography 51 Appendix A A 2011 Road Network Attributes A Appendix B B Zonal Demographic Data B Appendix C C Zonal Trip Productions and Attractions C Appendix D L Impact of Fruit Market Relocation and Intermodal Terminal Facility L Appendix E CC Traffic Volume Plots CC Appendix F F Economic Assessment Details F 27 November 2012 Transport Modelling and Economic Analysis for the Kilmore-Wallan Bypass Planning AECOM Study - Final Report ii Executive Summary In 2007, VicRoads investigated several bypass options for Kilmore and Wallan. As part of this work, a strategic transport model was developed for the study area which included a total of 71 transport zones (including 15 external zones) and a road network that was sufficiently detailed to examine the impact that each bypass option would have on the surrounding road network. Given the commitment by the Victorian Government in 2010 to construct a bypass of Kilmore by 2017, VicRoads engaged AECOM to update the strategic transport model for Kilmore and Wallan to investigate the traffic and transport economic impacts of five bypass options for the study area. The transport model that was developed in 2007 was updated and extended further to cover Broadford Township and the recent changes to the Melbourne Growth Corridor to the south of Wallan. The model included two components - light vehicles and heavy vehicles. The development of the light vehicle component followed a traditional four step model, while the heavy vehicle component was based on an existing pattern of an origin- destination matrix. The total traffic was the result of a multi-class assignment of light and heavy vehicle matrices. The zoning system was further disaggregated, comprising 110 internal zones and 18 external zones. The road network adopted included all freeways, highways and arterials in the study area. A selection of collector roads was also included in order to allow traffic to be appropriately distributed to and from each zone. The Hume Freeway and Northern Highway were the main north-south routes in the study area, with other arterials and collectors mainly providing an east-west function. In order to take into account the effect of future development (including residential, commercial and industrial development) in the study area, appropriate modifications to the 2021, 2031, 2041 road networks were undertaken. For trip productions, the demographic data compiled for each zone in the study area covered total population, population employed and the number of children in school. For trip attractions, the data included the number of school enrolments, wholesale/retail jobs and other jobs. The data was compiled for 2011 and projected for the years of 2021, 2031 and 2041, in close consultation with Shire of Mitchell, Growth Areas Authority, Department of Transport, Department of Planning and Community Development, and VicRoads. As a result of the analysis, total population in the study area was forecast to grow from approximately 23,300 people in 2011 to 80,000 people in 2041. The total number of jobs was forecast to grow also, from approximately 5,400 jobs in 2011 to 20,600 jobs in 2041. For the trip generation component of the model, two main trip purposes, Home Based (HB) and Non Home Based (NHB), were adopted since their trip rates and distributions were different. Trip generation rates from a number of studies were reviewed and adopted where appropriate. For the trip distribution component of the model, internal trips and internal-external trips (and external-internal trips) were distributed based on the gravity model. The distribution of external-external trips was based on an origin destination survey undertaken in 2011. The light and heavy vehicle origin destination matrices were assigned to the network using a multi-class equilibrium trip assignment with capacity restraint to estimate the link flows as well as travel time through the network. The traffic assignment for the 2011 base year was based on both travel time and vehicle operating costs for light vehicles, and travel time only for heavy vehicles. For future years, the traffic assignment was based on travel time only for both light and heavy vehicles in future years. Several model validation checks on the 2011 Base model were undertaken as per VicRoads’ requirements. All checks and criteria were satisfied for all vehicles and heavy vehicles separately. The model validation criteria were also satisfied if the traffic assignment was based on solely travel time for both light and heavy vehicles. For future years, the internal-internal trips were determined by applying the trip production and attraction process to the future demographic data and distributing the trip ends using the gravity model. For internal-external and external-internal trips, the growth in trip productions at external zones was considered to be the same as the employment growth rate for the study area. Similarly, the growth in trip attractions at external zones was considered to be the same as the population growth rate for the study area. Growth for external-external trips was determined by using the historical traffic growth rates at external zones recorded over the past ten years. There are a number of additional roads planned in the southern part of study area in 2031 and 2041 that need to be represented by external zones in the model. As the distribution of traffic demand at these external zones could not be estimated from this Kilmore-Wallan model, the Victorian Integrated Transport Model (VITM) developed by the Growth Areas Authority for the northern growth area of Melbourne was used to estimate the proportion expected to use each of the additional roads, as well as the existing Hume Freeway. 27 November 2012 Transport Modelling and Economic Analysis for the Kilmore-Wallan Bypass Planning AECOM Study - Final Report iii The impact on freight as a result of the proposed relocation of the wholesale fruit market to Epping and the operation of the intermodal terminal facility at Somerton was reviewed. The assessment was based on origin- destination goods tonnage data for Victoria. Heavy vehicle traffic volumes were derived from the tonnage data and assigned to the network with reference to existing route preference criteria.