Appendix B – Region 5 Country and regional profiles of volcanic hazard and risk: Melanesia and Australia S.K. Brown1, R.S.J. Sparks1, K. Mee2, C. Vye-Brown2, E.Ilyinskaya2, S.F. Jenkins1, S.C. Loughlin2* 1University of Bristol, UK; 2British Geological Survey, UK, * Full contributor list available in Appendix B Full Download This download comprises the profiles for Region 5: Melanesia and Australia only. For the full report and all regions see Appendix B Full Download. Page numbers reflect position in the full report. The following countries are profiled here: Region 5 Melanesia and Australia Pg.307 Australia 314 Papua New Guinea 320 Solomon Islands 328 Vanuatu 335 Brown, S.K., Sparks, R.S.J., Mee, K., Vye-Brown, C., Ilyinskaya, E., Jenkins, S.F., and Loughlin, S.C. (2015) Country and regional profiles of volcanic hazard and risk. In: S.C. Loughlin, R.S.J. Sparks, S.K. Brown, S.F. Jenkins & C. Vye-Brown (eds) Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. This profile and the data therein should not be used in place of focussed assessments and information provided by local monitoring and research institutions. Region 5: Melanesia and Australia Figure 5.1 The distribution of Holocene volcanoes through the Melanesia and Australia region. The capital cities of the constituent countries are shown. Description Region 5, Melanesia and Australia, comprises volcanoes in five countries. Australia, France, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. The volcanoes of France in this region are the overseas territories of Matthew and Hunter Islands and Eastern Gemini Seamount, located at the southern end of the Vanuatu chain. The details of these French islands are incorporated into the French Pacific Islands country profile of Region 13. Here, just one Australian volcano is classed as Region 5, but we present two further Australian volcanoes from Region 3 in the Australia profile. Country Number of volcanoes Australia 1 + 2 from Region 3 France (See Region 13) 3 Papua New Guinea 56 Solomon Islands 8 Vanuatu 14 Table 5.1 The countries represented in this region and the number of volcanoes. Volcanoes located on the borders between countries are included in the profiles of all countries involved. Note that countries may be represented in more than one region, as overseas territories may be widespread. This profile and the data therein should not be used in place of focussed assessments and information provided by local monitoring and research institutions. Volcanism in this region has arisen due to a complex system of plate interactions, with multiple micro-plates located throughout the region. Most volcanoes are due to subduction zone processes, dominantly with the subduction of the Pacific and Solomon Sea Plates. The singular volcano on mainland Australia is due to intra-plate processes. Most volcanoes here are of andesitic or basaltic composition, and a range of volcano types are present throughout the region. About 60% of all volcanoes are stratovolcanoes or types of large cones, with 11% of volcanoes classified as calderas. Large explosive volcanism is recorded back into the Pleistocene, with seven volcanoes having Pleistocene records of VEI ≥4 eruptions. Despite this, the more recent record is sparse until historical times. 83 volcanoes have had confirmed or suspected Holocene activity, of which 37 have historical activity. Of a total of 449 Holocene eruptions, 400 are dated post-1500 AD, and 86% of events have been recorded through historical observations. The absence of a comprehensive record prior to recent centuries means that full understanding of activity and hazard here is difficult. Holocene activity has comprised eruptions of VEI 0 to 6, indicating a range of small to very large explosive events. Explosive activity is relatively common with about 8% of eruptions of VEI ≥4, and with moderate to large explosive events occurring about every 13 years. Approximately 12% of historical eruptions have produced pyroclastic flows. The population through this region is such that most volcanoes are classed with low to moderate PEI values. However, about 260,000 people live within 10 km of one or more Holocene volcano, within the distance where many of the hazardous flows are concentrated. 25 historical eruptions have resulted in fatalities (6% of historical eruptions here), with most deaths attributed to pyroclastic flows and tsunamis. This region ranks third for the number of tsunami-generating eruptions historically. Dedicated volcano monitoring is in place in Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands, though most frequently using few seismic stations. The only Risk Level III volcano in the region, Rabaul in Papua New Guinea, is monitored by the Rabaul Volcano Observatory, with multiple dedicated ground-based monitoring systems. Volcano Facts Number of Holocene volcanoes 83 Number of Pleistocene volcanoes with M≥4 eruptions 7 Number of volcanoes generating pyroclastic flows 24 (69 eruptions) Number of volcanoes generating lahars 13 (17 eruptions) Number of volcanoes generating lava flows 20 (110 eruptions) Number of eruptions with fatalities 28 Number of fatalities attributed to eruptions 10,445 Largest recorded Pleistocene eruption The M7.4 Kiau Ignimbrite eruption at Long Island at 19,245 BP. 308 Largest recorded Holocene eruption The largest recorded Holocene eruption in this region was the 998 BP Dk eruption of Dakataua at M7.4. Number of Holocene eruptions 449 confirmed Holocene eruptions. Recorded Holocene VEI range 0 – 6 and unknown Number of historically active volcanoes 37 Number of historical eruptions 400 Number of Primary volcano type Dominant rock type volcanoes 9 Caldera(s) Andesitic (3), Basaltic (3), Dacitic (2), Rhyolitic (1) 1 Hydrothermal field Andesitic (1) 48 Large cone(s) Andesitic (24), Basaltic (20), Dacitic (1), Phonolitic (2), Rhyolitic (1) 1 Lava dome(s) Andesitic (1) 2 Shield(s) Basaltic (2) 11 Small cone(s) Andesitic (6), Basaltic (2), Dacitic (1), Rhyolitic (2) 9 Submarine Andesitic (2), Dacitic (1), Unknown (6) Table 5.2 The volcano types and dominant rock types of the volcanoes of this region according to VOTW4.0. Eruption Frequency VEI Recurrence Interval (Years) Small (< VEI 4) 1 Large (> VEI 3) 10 Table 5.3 Average recurrence interval (years between eruptions) for small and large eruptions in Melanesia and Australia. The eruption record indicates that on average small to moderate sized eruptions of VEI <4 occur in this region with an average recurrence interval (ARI) of about a year, whilst the ARI for large eruptions is longer, at about 10 years. Eruption Size Eruptions are recorded through the Melanesia and West Asia region of VEI 0 to 6, representing a range of eruption styles from gentle effusive events to very large explosive eruptions. VEI 2 events dominate the record, with nearly 60% of all Holocene eruptions classed as such. Of the eruptions here, 7.6% are of VEI ≥4. 309 Figure 5.2 Percentage of eruptions in this region recorded at each VEI level; the number of eruptions is also shown. The percentage is of total eruptions with recorded VEI. A further 55 eruptions were recorded with unknown VEI. Socio-Economic Facts Total population (2011) 7,187,689 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (2005 PPP $) 2,363 – 34,548 (Mean 10,889) Gross National Income (GNI) per capita (2005 PPP $) 2,172 – 34,340 (Mean 10,715) Human Development Index (HDI) (2012) 0.466 – 0.938 (Low to Very High, Mean 0.64 Medium) Population Exposure Number (percentage) of people living within 10 km of a Holocene 257,684 (3.59 %) volcano Number (percentage) of people living within 30 km of a Holocene 1,252,172 (17.42 %) volcano Number (percentage) of people living within 100 km of a 5,869,560 (81.66 %) Holocene volcano 310 Hazard, Uncertainty and Exposure Assessments Hazard Long Island; Ulawun; Bagana; Manam; Karkar Rabaul III Aoba Hazard Ambrym; Lopevi Yasur Pago II Bam; Ritter Island; Kavachi; CLASSIFIED Hazard I Langila Tinakula; Gaua; Epi; Kuwae Eastern Gemini St. Andrew Strait; Unnamed Garbuna Group; Seamount; (250030); Dakataua; Bamus; Lolobau; U – HHR Hunter Island; Victory; Waiowa; Billy Mitchell; Lamington; Unnamed Simbo; Traitor's Head; Savo; (258030) Matthew Island Suretamatai Hargy; Dawson Newer U- HR Loloru Strait Group; Tavui Volcanics Ambitle Province Baluan; Blup Blup; Kadovar; Garove; Doma Boisa; Unnamed (252001); Peaks; Crater Yomba; Umboi; Sakar; Mountain; Unnamed; Mundua; Bola; Sulu Yelia; UNCLASSIFIED Range; Unnamed; Madilogo; Garua Harbour; U- Managlase Hydrographers Range; Musa Lolo; Koranga; NHHR Plateau; River; Iamalele; Lihir; Tore; Gallego Sessagara; Balbi; Kana Keoki; Coleman Goodenough; Seamount; Unnamed; Motlav; Takuan Group; Mere Lava; Unnamed (255061); North Vate Aneityum PEI 1 PEI 2 PEI 3 PEI 4 PEI 5 PEI 6 PEI 7 Table 5.4 Identity of the volcanoes in this region in each Hazard-PEI group. Those volcanoes with a sufficient record for determining a hazard score are deemed ‘classified’ (top). Those without sufficient data are ‘Unclassified’ (bottom). The unclassified volcanoes are divided into groups: U-NHHR is Unclassified No Historic or Holocene Record: that is there are no confirmed eruptions recorded in the Holocene. U-HR is Unclassified with Holocene Record: that is there are confirmed eruptions recorded during the Holocene, but no historical (post-1500) events. U-HHR is Unclassified with Historic and Holocene record. The unclassified volcanoes in bold have experienced unrest or eruptions since 1900 AD, and those in red have records of at least one Holocene VEI ≥4 eruption. 311 Population Exposure Index Number of Volcanoes Population Exposure Index 1 7 0 6 2 5 5 4 21 3 51 2 3 1 Table 5.5 The number of volcanoes in Melanesia and Australia classed in each PEI category. Risk Levels Number of Volcanoes Risk Level 1 III 8 II 10 I 18 Unclassified Table 5.6 The number of volcanoes in the Melanesia and Australia region classified at each Risk Level.