SOMALIA Security and Political Awareness Report 09 June to 15 June 2014 Overview The week saw connuing violence throughout: ⋅ In the North Somaliland moved troops in Taleex and fought with Khatumo State forces. ⋅ The central region saw Al‐Shabaab aacking Bulo Burto and clan fighng breakout around Balanbal. ⋅ The south saw connued clan fighng in Lower Shabelle and Al‐Shabaab connued its campaign in the Bakool region, with ongoing fighng between Al‐Shabaab and AMISOM allied milia. ⋅ Mogadishu saw Al‐Shabaab aack Government facilies and connue its campaign against Local Government leaders. Polically the reporng period saw tensions between Somaliland and Puntland increased following Somaliland’s aempts to prevent the Khatumo State conference in Taleex. Elsewhere clan tensions underlie significant polical threats to the Federal Government with the tensions between clans in Lower Shabelle exploding once again into open conflict. Contents ⋅ Northern Region ⋅ Central Region ⋅ Southern Region ⋅ Mogadishu ⋅ Al‐Shabaab Inside Somalia ⋅ Al‐Shabaab Outside Somalia ⋅ Threat Forecast and Guidance ⋅ Political Environment ⋅ Political Forecast NORTHERN REGION 1 Incident Map Security Analysis The northern region saw incidents occurring in both Somaliland and Puntland during the week. Somaliland The Somaliland Government has long made no secret of the fact that it considers these areas claimed by Khatumo State‐ Sanaag; Sool and parts of Toghdeer‐ as their territory. Equally the Puntland Government claims that Sanaag and Sool are most definitely part of their territory. During May the Somaliland Government occupied Taleex‐ the capital of Khatumo State‐ in an effort to prevent the 3rd Khatumo Conference from taking place. 1. Xin‐Galool. 11.06 Somaliland forces occupy town. The Khatumo State iniave‐ which in itself is dominated 2. Taleex. 12.06 Somaliland forces capture Taleex 3. Boocame. 12.06 Khatumo aligned forces occupy town by Darod sub‐clans‐ threatens the Hargeysa regime and if 4. Halin. 12.06 Khatumo aligned forces occupy town allowed to go develop into a recognised Federal State 5. Sahdheer. 13.06 Somaliland forces aack Khatumo would potenally reduce Somaliland’s territory milia. considerably. 6. Gaalkacyo. 14.06 Al‐Shabaab ambushes PAF convoy. 3 injured 7. Laas Caanood. 14.06 Khatumo forces aack Somaliland This week the Somaliland Government aempted again forces. 3 killed 5 injured. to prevent the Khatumo State Conference going ahead. On 12.06 Somaliland Forces advanced from posions in and around Xin‐Galool and seized Taleex, the planned capital of the Khatumo State. Source reports vary, but it seems the Khatumo leaders withdrew to Halin and Boocame. Somaliland then aempted to remove other towns from Khatumo State control aacking Sahdheer near Buuhoodle. Not to be out done pro‐Khatumo State milia then aacked Somaliland posions near Laas Caanood. Puntland Gaalkacyo again saw aacks on Puntland, as we have indicated Al‐Shabaab has moved militants into the city over the last few months. This week these militants conducted an IED aack on a convoy of the Puntland Armed Forces that injured at least 3 soldiers. In addion to the fall out form the Gaalkacyo aack, the Government of Puntland was also le reeling by the Somaliland assault on the Khatumo State conference and the capture of Taleex. The Puntland Government was swi to denounce Somaliland’s acons and promise severe consequences if Somaliland doesn’t withdraw its forces. Security Forecast Somaliland ⋅ At present the moves by Somaliland to remove the presence of the Khatumo State has the potenal to cause open fighng in the region. ⋅ Puntland does not recognise Khatumo State and claims Sanaag and Sool a parts of its own territory, thus it sees Somaliland’s aack on Khatumo as an invasion of Puntland. ⋅ The tensions between Puntland; Somaliland and Khatumo state could well develop into open warfare between Puntland and Somaliland, in addion to the exisng conflict between Somaliland and Khatumo State. ⋅ Al‐Shabaab connues to move personnel north, with a significant Al‐Shabaab presence now reported in Gaalkacyo and surrounding areas. ⋅ At present the Puntland military is overstretched, with the presence of Somaliland’s armed forces into Sanaag and Sool, a large proporon of the Puntland Armed Forces are posioned along the states western border. This has resulted in weaker security along the southern border with Galmudug, potenally allowing further Al‐ Shabaab movement into the region. ⋅ Al‐Shabaab remains embedded in the Golis Mountains and the Puntland Armed Forces operate on a strategy of containment. The presence of Al‐Shabaab in the Golis threatens the highway from Bossaso south and aacks on PAF bases in the area are frequent. CENTRAL REGION 2 Incident Map Security Analysis The majority of incidents in the Central Region connue to take place in the vicinity of towns recently liberated by AMISOM and the SNA. This week saw fighng in Bulo Burto. However, this week a worrying trend of Clan based violence in the vicinity of Balanbal emerged, with fighng at the start and end of the week. The wave of Clan aacks in Balanbal on 10.06 followed the assassinaon of a Clan businessman. In a t‐for‐tat exchange that escalated during the course of the week at least 19 were killed and 22 injured. The clans involved are both reportedly sub‐clans of the Marehan Darod, although there has been menon that with the aempted assassinaon of the former regional head of Ahlu Sunna becoming a target on 12.06 another clan‐ possibly the Ashraf‐ are involved as well. The strategy of blockading and conducng aacks against recently liberated towns is linked to the incidents 1. Balanbal. 10.06 Fighng between rival clans. 14 killed in Bulo Burto. A string of strikes on 11.06 ripped through 11 injured the town, with at least 3 IEDs being used to aack 2. Bulo Burto. 11.06 Al‐Shabaab ambushes AMISOM AMISOM forces. The aacks demonstrated once again convoy. 1 vehicle destroyed 3 killed 15 injured Al‐Shabaab’s recent taccal ability, with 2 IEDs 3. Bulo Burto. 11.06 Al‐Shabaab ambushes 2nd AMISOM simultaneously striking 2 AMISOM convoys, a 3rd was convoy. 4. Bulo Burto. 11.06 Al‐Shabaab ambushes AMISOM emplaced to damage a QRF element coming to the aid of patrol. the damaged convoys. Al‐Shabaab also narrowly avoided 5. Bulo Burto. 11.06 Al‐Shabaab aacks helicopter with bringing down a helicopter‐ believed to be operated by RPG. the UN in support of AMISOM. 6. Bulo Burto. 12.06 AMISOM conducts security sweeps mulple Al‐Shabaab suspects detained. 7. Balanbal. 12.06 Former Head of Ahlu Sunna survives assassinaon aempt. 3 injured 8. Balanbal. 13.06 Fighng between rival clans. 5 killed 8 injured. Security Forecast The Central Region remains dominated by Al‐Shabaab, with significant presence in Jalalaqsi and areas of Middle Shabelle and Galgaduud to the east. Connued control of the Region is an Al‐Shabaab priority, loss of control would inhibit movement north and south and also the collecon of “taxes” from the populace. With control of the Central Region being a priority to Al‐Shabaab, further fighng is a certainty. Although AMISOM and the SNA are aempng to expand their control, the rural areas remain under Al‐Shabaab control with a resulng loss of flexibility and freedom of movement to AMISOM. ⋅ In order to stabilise the region and break the blockade of Bulo Burto, AMISOM must capture Jalalaqsi and clear the road to Jowhar, this would allow clear routes from Mogadishu and the South all the way to Belet Weyne. ⋅ Al‐Shabaab is in no posion to conduct a significant offensive. Although strikes on AMISOM and SNA forces and bases are to be expected, the majority of Al‐Shabaab acvity in the Central Region will be in support of the blockades of Bulo Burto and Ceel Buur. SOUTHERN REGION Security Analysis 3 Incident Map Fighng in the Southern region was dominated by fighng in both the north of the region and the south. Fighng connued in; ⋅ Bakool in the vicinity of the Xudur region‐ with Al‐ Shabaab fighng against Liyuu Milia; AMISOM and SNA Forces; ⋅ In the Lower Shabelle Region‐ with Biyomaal Dir fighng the Abgaal and Habr Gedir Hawiye Clan; ⋅ In the area around Kismayo‐ with Al‐Shabaab engaging the IJA and AMISOM forces in the city. The connuing fighng against Al‐Shabaab in the Bakool region follows on from last week. Al‐Shabaab is resurgent in the region in the last few weeks, striking against AMISOM and allied milias at will and seeing repeated successes. Several key towns in the region have changed numerous mes during the last 2 weeks; with Buur Dhuxunle; Lagaley; Garas Wiine and Qurac Joome all seeing pitched bales. In surprising developments Al‐ Shabaab finished the week in control of several towns that had previously been liberated by AMISOM, The fighng in the Lower Shabelle region between the 1. Ato. 09.06 Al‐Shabaab ambushes Liyuu milia convoy. Biyomaal Dir and the Abgaal Hawiye connued, with 2. Baidoa. 09.06 Local Admin Officer and bodyguard fighng spreading from Marka to other towns in the assassinated by gunmen. 2 killed 1 injured 3. Buurdhuubo. 09.06 Al‐Shabaab aacks AMISOM base. district, including KM50. The connued presence of the 4. Garas Wiine. 09.06 Al‐Shabaab ambushes AMISOM rd Habr Gedir dominated SNA 3 Brigade only exacerbated patrol. the regional tensions witnesses reporng SNA soldiers 5. Kismayo. 09.06 Al‐Shabaab aacks IJA patrol. 2 killed 1 acng in support of the Abgaal milia aacking the injured Biyomaal Dir. Aer the inial successes enjoyed by the 6. KM50. 09.06 Fighng between rival clans. 5 killed Biyomaal Dir in the Marka area last week‐ they ended 7. Marka. 09.06 Fighng between rival clans.