Annual Meeting of the Austrian Statistical Society (OSG)¨ 2014 September 10th - 12th, 2014 at the University of Innsbruck, Faculty of Economics and Statistics With the kind support of: B¨urgermeisterinder Stadt Innsbruck, Mag.a Christine Oppitz-Pl¨orer Pr¨asidentdes Tiroler Landtags, DDr. Herwig van Staa Dekanat der Fakult¨atf¨urVolkswirtschaft und Statistik Forschungsplattform "Empirical and Experimental Economics" (eeecon) Universit¨atInnsbruck Program The name of the author giving the talk is underlined. Wednesday, September 10, 2014 09:00 - 10:00 Registration Welcome address by the dean of the Faculty of Economics 10:00 - 10:15 and Statistics, Hannelore Weck-Hannemann, and Stefan Lang Session: Environmental Modeling and Natural Hazards Chair: Janette Walde (University of Innsbruck) 10:15 - 10:55 Keynote: Reinhard Furrer 'Spatial Models for Global Change and Biodiversity Research' 10:55 - 11:20 Thomas Mendlik, Ernst Stadlober, Andreas Gobiet ’Quantification of Climate Change Using Multilevel Regression Models' 11:20 - 11:40 Coffee break 11:40 - 12:00 Nikolaus Umlauf 'Bayesian Structured Additive Regression for Identifying Tipping Points of Tropical Forests' 12:00 - 12:20 Jakob Messner, Georg Mayr, Achim Zeileis 'Weather Forecasts and Censored Regression with Conditional Heteroscedasticity' 12:20 - 12:40 Christian Pfeifer, Peter H¨oller ’Effects of New Fallen Snow and Temperature in Alpine Areas on Backcountry Avalanche Accidents Reported in Tyrol within 1987-2009' 12:40 - 13:40 Lunch break Session: Econometrics I Chair: Achim Zeileis (University of Innsbruck) 13:40 - 14:20 Keynote: Marie Holzhausen, Christian Leschinski, Philipp Sibbertsen 'Testing for Spurious Multivariate Long Memory' 14:20 - 14:45 Robert M. Kunst 'Forecasting Seasonal Data and Nonparametric Unit-root Tests' 14:45 - 15:10 Stefan Mittnik, Nikolay Robinzonov, Martin Spindler 'Stock Market Volatility: Identifying Major Drivers and the Nature of Their Impact' 15:10 - 15:30 Coffee break 1 Wednesday, September 10, 2014 Session: Econometrics II Chair: Philipp Sibbertsen (University of Hannover) 15:30 - 15:55 Marta Disegna, Fabrizio Durante, Enrico Foscolo 'A Copula-based Analysis of Tourists' Spending Behavior' 15:55 - 16:20 Tamara Geisberger, Thomas Glaser 'Decomposing the Gender Pay Gap in Austria' 16:20 - 16:45 Johannes Klotz 'A Statistical Model for Annual Migration Counts of Rural Municipalities' 16:45 - 17:05 Alexander Razen, Wolfgang Brunauer, Nadja Klein, Thomas Kneib, Stefan Lang, Nikolaus Umlauf 'Statistical Risk Analysis for Real Estate Collateral Valuation using Bayesian Distributional and Quantile Regression' 17:05 - 17:30 Daniel Tillich, Dietmar Ferger 'Estimation in Discontinuous Binary Regression Models with Dependent Data and its Application in Credit Rating Systems' 18:00 Reception at the City Hall (Maria-Theresien-Strasse 18, Plenary hall, 6th floor) Thursday, September 11, 2014 Session: Computational Statistics I Chair: Helga Wagner (JKU Linz) 09:00 - 09:25 F. Marta L. Di Lascio, Marta Disegna 'Food Consumption Patterns of European Countries: An Application of the CoClust Algorithm' 09:25 - 09:50 Andreas Quatember 'A Bootstrap Method based on the Horvitz-Thompson Principle' 09:50 - 10:15 Elisa Perrone 'Robustness Issues in the Optimal Design of Experiments for Copula Models' 10:15 - 10:40 Markus Hainy, Werner M¨uller, Helga Wagner 'Simulation-based Likelihood-free Optimal Designs' 10:40 - 11:00 Coffee break 2 Thursday, September 11, 2014 Session: Computational Statistics II Chair: Thomas Kneib (Georg-August-University G¨ottingen) 11:00 - 11:25 Sonja Greven, Sarah Brockhaus, Fabian Scheipl, Torsten Hothorn 'The Functional Linear Array Model' 11:25 - 11:50 Fabian Scheipl 'Additive Mixed Models for Generalized Functional Data' 11:50 - 12:10 Helene Roth ’Influence of the Inverse Gamma Hyperparameters on Bayesian Random Intercept Selection Quality' 12:10 - 13:30 Lunch break Session: Flexible Modeling of Non-Standard Data I Chair: Sonja Greven (LMU Munich) 13:30 - 14:10 Keynote: Thomas Kneib 'Bayesian Structured Additive Distributional Regression' 14:10 - 14:35 Nadja Klein 'Extensions of Bayesian Structured Additive Distributional Regression for Multi- variate Responses' 14:35 - 15:00 Andreas Futschik 'Multiscale Binomial Partitioning with Applications to DNA Segmentation' 15:00 - 15:20 Judith Santer, Kenneth Harttgen, Stefan Lang 'Multilevel Modelling of Child Mortality in Africa' 15:20 - 15:40 Coffee break 3 Thursday, September 11, 2014 Session: Flexible Modeling of Non-Standard Data II Chair: Stefan Lang (University of Innsbruck) 15:40 - 16:05 Hauke Rennies, Thomas Kneib 'Identifying Production Frontiers with Conditional Quantiles' 16:05 - 16:30 Peter Scheibelhofer, G¨unterHayderer, Ernst Stadlober 'Fault Detection and Diagnosis of Multiway Data Using a Kernel Approach' 16:30 - 16:55 Daniela Pauger, Helga Wagner 'Bayesian Effect Fusion for Categorial Predictors' 16:55 - 17:20 Johannes Klotz, Alexander Hanika, Monika Hackl, Nadine Zielonke 'Prognose von Krebsinzidenz und Krebsmortalit¨atin Osterreich¨ bis 2030' Lisa Neuhofer, Simone Sauter, Doron Edlinger, Christoph Rinner, 17:20 - 17:45 Gottfried Endel, Michael Wolzt, Wilfried Grossmann, Walter Gall 'Auswahl von statistischen Methoden f¨urein automatisiertes Tool' 18:00 - 19:15 OSG¨ board meeting ('Besprechungsraum' at the Dep. of Statistics, east, 2nd floor) 19:30 Conference dinner at Fischerh¨ausl(Herrengasse 8) Friday, September 12, 2014 Session: The Challenges of Official Statistics in the International Environment Chair: Ulrike Oschischnig (Austrian Economic Chamber) 09:00 - 09:40 Keynote: Konrad Pesendorfer 'Challenges for the European Statistical System - Vision 2020' 09:40 - 10:05 Alexandra Wegscheider-Pichler 'Umweltbetroffenheit und -verhalten von Personengruppen abh¨angigvon Einkommen und Kaufkraft' 10:05 - 10:30 Manuela Lenk 'bibEr - Bildungsbezogenes Erwerbskarrierenmonitoring' 10:30 - 10:55 Coffee break 10:55 - 11:20 Patrick Thienel 'The New ECB Payments Statistics' 11:20 - 11:45 Marcus Hudec, Thomas Burg 'Challenges for Official Statistics from a Quality Point of View' 11:45 - 12:10 Ineke Stoop 'European users of statistics' 4 Conference venue The conference will be held in lecture hall 1 (ground floor) at the SoWi building (Universit¨atsstr.15, Innsbruck). Conference participants will have a computer room (SR7: second floor east) and a preparation room ('Besprechungsraum' at the Department of Statistics: second floor east) at their disposal. How to get to the conference venue By Train When travelling by train get off at the main station 'Innsbruck Hauptbahnhof'. The conference venue is within walking distance from there (approximately 10 minutes). We start from the main station located at 'S¨udtirolerPlatz 7'. From there take either a taxi or the bus (either bus line R towards 'DEZ' shopping centre or line 4 towards Hall in Tirol, stop: 'Polizeidirektion'). If you prefer to walk, exit the main station to your right and continue until you meet 'Brixner Strasse' (heading left). Follow 'Brixner Strasse' and turn right onto 'Meinhardstrasse'. Follow the street past the cross-roads and go ahead onto 'Sillgasse', follow the street past the next cross-road and you will arrive in the courtyard of the university. By Plane Take the bus line F (towards Baggersee, leaves every 15 min.) departing directly outside the airport, and get off at the main station (stop: 'Hauptbahnhof'). The way from there to the conference venue is described above. For an overview map see https://mapsengine.google.com/map/edit?hl=de&authuser=0&mid=zN_ sRTGvjxxQ.kCIFOAfjrM6k. Proposals for lunch • Himal (Nepali Kitchen), Universit¨atsstr.13 • Kijsana 36 (Thai Restaurant), Universit¨atsstr.18 • Victoria's (Sushibar and Restaurant), Kaiserj¨agerstr.4a • Il Dottore (Italian Kitchen), Kaiserj¨agerstr.1 • Haus der Begegnung, Rennweg 12 • Stiftskeller (Traditional Tyrolean Kitchen), Stiftgasse 1 • Mensa SoWi-Lounge 5.