Low-Carbon Development Strategy of the Slovak Republic until 2030 with a View to 2050 - Proposal – Low-Carbon Development Strategy of the Slovak Republic until 2030 with a View to 2050 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ACRONYMS ........................................................................................................4 SUMMARY ..........................................................................................................................5 1 OVERVIEW AND PREPARATION OF THE STRATEGY.........................................7 1.1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 7 1.2 LEGAL AND POLITICAL CONTEXT ................................................................................................................ 8 1.2.1 European Political Context ................................................................................................................ 8 1.2.2 Slovak Political Context ..................................................................................................................... 9 1.2.3 Legal Framework for the Preparation of the Strategy ........................................................................ 9 1.2.4 Procedural Steps of Document Preparation ..................................................................................... 10 1.3 PUBLIC CONSULTATION ......................................................................................................................... 13 2 CONTENT OF THE STRATEGY ................................................................................ 14 2.1 OVERALL EMISSION REDUCTIONS AND ENHANCEMENT OF REMOVALS UP TO 2050 .............................................. 14 2.1.1 PLANNED EMISSION REDUCTIONS AND ENHANCEMENT OF REMOVALS UP TO 2050 ............................................. 14 2.1.2 NATIONAL TARGET BY 2030 AND INDICATIVE MILESTONES UP TO 2040 AND 2050 ............................................ 18 2.2 ADAPTATION POLICIES AND MEASURES ..................................................................................................... 21 2.3 ENERGY FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES ....................................................................................................... 22 2.3.1 Biomass as a Renewable Energy Source ........................................................................................... 22 2.4 ENERGY EFFICIENCY.............................................................................................................................. 23 2.5 DETAILED ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUAL SECTORS .............................................................................................. 24 2.5.1 ENERGY SECTOR (INCLUDING TRANSPORT AND FUGITIVE EMISSIONS) ............................................. 26 2.5.2 INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES SECTOR ..................................................................................................... 41 2.5.3 TRANSPORT SECTOR ....................................................................................................................... 45 2.5.4 AGRICULTURE ................................................................................................................................. 52 2.5.5 LAND USE, LAND USE CHANGE AND FORESTRY (LULUCF) SECTOR .................................................... 56 2.5.6 WASTE SECTOR ............................................................................................................................... 61 3 CURRENT AND PLANNED FINANCING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PROPOSED MEASURES ............................................................................................. 65 3.1 ESTIMATED INVESTMENTS REQUIRED FOR DECARBONISATION ......................................................................... 65 3.2 PLANNED FINANCING OPPORTUNITIES FOR MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION MEASURES AFTER 2020 ........................ 66 3.2.1 Modernisation Fund ........................................................................................................................ 67 3.2.2 Innovation Fund .............................................................................................................................. 67 3.2.3 EU Budget (European Structural and Investment Funds) .................................................................. 68 3.2.4 Environmental Fund ........................................................................................................................ 69 3.3 POLICIES AND MEASURES FOR RELATED RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION .......................................... 71 4 ANALYSES OF THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF PROPOSED POLICIES AND MEASURES ................................................................ 72 4.1 DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE MEASURES UNDER THE WAM SCENARIO .......................................... 74 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................... 78 ANNEX I - DETAILED INFORMATION ARISING FROM MODELLING BY SECTOR ........................................................................................................................ 80 TABLE 6: PROJECTIONS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM THE ENERGY SECTOR UNDER THE WEM SCENARIO ................... 80 TABLE 7: PROJECTIONS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM THE ENERGY SECTOR UNDER THE WAM SCENARIO ................... 80 TABLE 8: QUANTIFIED MITIGATION EFFECTS OF THE DESCRIBED WEM MEASURES (PLUS TWO WAM) ................................... 81 FIGURE 27: TREND OF AGGREGATE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY GAS IN THE IPPU SECTOR IN THE YEARS 1990 - 2016 (GG CO2 EQ.) ............................................................................................................................................................. 82 TABLE 9: PROJECTIONS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM THE IPPU SECTOR INCLUDING F-GASES UNDER THE WEM SCENARIO ................................................................................................................................................................... 82 TABLE 10: PROJECTIONS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM THE IPPU SECTOR INCLUDING F-GASES UNDER THE WAM SCENARIO ...................................................................................................................................................... 83 TABLE 11: PROJECTIONS OF EMISSIONS IN THE ROAD TRANSPORT FOR 2017* – 2040 UNDER THE WEM SCENARIO ................ 83 TABLE 12: PROJECTIONS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN THE ROAD TRANSPORT FOR 2017 – 2040 UNDER THE WAM SCENARIO ...................................................................................................................................................... 83 TABLE 13: PROJECTIONS OF EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE UNTIL 2040 UNDER THE WEM SCENARIO ................................. 84 FIGURE 28: PROJECTIONS OF DEVELOPMENT OF CARBON STOCK IN LIVING BIOMASS (ABOVE GROUND + GROUND) IN SLOVAK FORESTS ........................................................................................................................................................ 85 TABLE 14: PROJECTIONS OF CO2 EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS IN THE LULUCF SECTOR (IN GG) UNTIL 2040 UNDER THE WEM SCENARIO ...................................................................................................................................................... 85 TABLE 15: PROJECTIONS OF CO2 EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS IN THE LULUCF SECTOR (IN GG) UNTIL 2040 UNDER THE WAM SCENARIO ...................................................................................................................................................... 85 ANNEX II - SPECIFIC APPROACHES AND ANALYTICAL MODELS APPLIED TO INDIVIDUAL SECTORS .............................................................................................. 87 LULUCF – expert approach ..................................................................................................................... 89 Waste sector - expert approach ............................................................................................................. 89 A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE SCENARIOS USED IN THE LOW -CARBON STUDY ........................................................... 90 A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE MODELS USED .................................................................................................... 91 LIST OF ACRONYMS BAT Best Available Technologies CO2 Carbon dioxide CO2e/CO2ekv CO2 equivalent DHS District heating system MS Member State EE Energy efficiency EC European Commission ESD/ESR GHG emissions outside the EU-ETS EU ETS/ ETS European Emission Trading Scheme Gg Gigagram (=Mt) GDP Gross domestic product IPCC Intergovernmental panel on climate change IPPU Industrial processes and product use sector LULUCF Land use, land use change and forestry sector Mt Million tonnes MW Megawatt ME SR Ministry of Economy of the SR MoE SR Ministry of Environment of the Slovak Republic NECP Integrated Energy and Climate Plan for 2021 - 2030 NMVOC Indirect emissions N2O Nitrous oxide OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PAMs Policies and measures SEA Slovak Environment Agency WB World Bank SF6 Sulphur hexafluoride SHMI Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute Slovak-CGE ENVISAGE-Slovakia applied general equilibrium mode GHG Greenhouse gas UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change MFF Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-2027 WEM Scenario