EGU Journal Logos (RGB) Open Access Open Access Open Access Advances in Annales Nonlinear Processes Geosciences Geophysicae in Geophysics Open Access Open Access Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1445–1455, 2013 Natural Hazards Natural Hazards www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/13/1445/2013/ doi:10.5194/nhess-13-1445-2013 and Earth System and Earth System © Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Sciences Sciences Discussions Open Access Open Access Atmospheric Atmospheric Chemistry Chemistry and Physics and Physics Augmenting Austrian flood management practices through Discussions Open Access Open Access geospatial predictive analytics: a study in CarinthiaAtmospheric Atmospheric Measurement Measurement S. M. Ward1 and G. Paulus2 Techniques Techniques 1 Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA Discussions 2 Open Access Carinthia University of Applied Sciences, School of GeoInformation, Villach, Austria Open Access Correspondence to: S. M. Ward ([email protected]) and G. Paulus ([email protected])Biogeosciences Biogeosciences Discussions Received: 3 October 2012 – Published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: – Revised: 15 February 2013 – Accepted: 20 February 2013 – Published: 11 June 2013 Open Access Open Access Climate Abstract. The Danube River basin has long been the loca- cal agendas. On the surface this statementClimate appears to be an tion of significant flooding problems across central Europe. appropriate depiction of the reasonof the behind Past the devastation in of the Past The last decade has seen a sharp increase in the frequency, 2002, but a closer look at flood history and flood management Discussions duration and intensity of these flood events, unveiling a dire in Austria reveals a different story. Dating back to as early as need for enhanced flood management policy and tools in the 1954, the Austrian portions of the Lower Danube River basin Open Access Open Access region. Located in the southern portion of Austria, the state have been subjected to intense flood events resulting in sig- Earth System of Carinthia has experienced a significant volume of intense nificant economic damagesEarth and loss System of life (Bl oschl¨ et al., flood impacts over the last decade. Although the Austrian 2012; Arellano et al., 2007). AlthoughDynamics none of these events Dynamics government has acknowledged these issues, their remedial have equaled the 2002 flood, their frequency and intensity Discussions actions have been primarily structural to date. Continued fo- have steadily increased, with the first decade of the millen- cus on controlling the natural environment through infras- nium realizing the most concentrated period of flooding in Open Access tructure while disregarding the need to consider alternative modern history (Frei et al.,Geoscientific 2006; Caspary, 2004). Coinci- Geoscientific Open Access forms of assessing flood exposure will only act as a provi- dent with the steady riseInstrumentation in flood events throughout the coun- Instrumentation sional solution to this inescapable risk. In an attempt to rem- try since the mid-twentieth century,Methods has beenand a maturation of Methods and edy this flaw, this paper highlights the application of geospa- flood mitigation strategy (Arellano et al., 2007). When con- tial predictive analytics and spatial recovery index as a proxy sidering the fact that AustrianData authorities Systems have frequently en- Data Systems for community resilience, as well as the cultural challenges hanced flood mitigation efforts over the last 60 yr, it is rea- Discussions Open Access Open Access associated with the application of foreign models within an sonable to question why flooding since the 2002 event has Geoscientific Austrian environment. continued to result in suchGeoscientific negative impacts throughout the country. Model Development Model Development In order to shed light upon this inquiry, the authors have Discussions expanded upon flood recovery modelling research initiated 1 Introduction in 2009 in the province of Carinthia. Utilizing a spatial re- Open Access Open Access covery index as a proxyHydrology for flood resilience and in the region, the Hydrology and While flooding has long signified one of the most ubiquitous 2009 study sought to define local flood risk in a context dif- hazard risks throughout Austria, one can argue that the catas- ferent from the typical engineeringEarth System based analyses (Ward et Earth System trophic flood event in August of 2002 characterizes a semi- al., 2009). The results of this analysisSciences relied upon the appli- Sciences nal moment in flood risk management for the central Euro- cation of a recently developed geospatially based model for pean nation (European Commission, 2002). The last compa- Discussions Open Access identifying flood recovery potential. With the applicationOpen Access of rable event to impact this Alpine region occurred in 1899, this model at the core, the intent of the 2009 study was to do far surpassing the memory of even its eldest citizens. With- the following: Ocean Science out this a posteriori knowledge, it is difficult to imagine flood Ocean Science Discussions mitigation being at the forefront of modern Austrian politi- Open Access Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. Open Access Solid Earth Solid Earth Discussions Open Access Open Access The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions 1446 S. M. Ward and G. Paulus: Augmenting Austrian flood practices 1. Determine if a geospatially based model developed for Hamann (1997) study also advises that 9–12 % of structures an urban area in the United States could be applied to in Austria are considered to be at extreme risk to floods. other regions throughout the world. To state that the 2002 flood event did not result in a re- newed interest in limiting the impacts of hazards would be 2. Identify what factors might limit the effectiveness of misleading. Austrian authorities have taken significant steps model execution and value of results. to understand the driving factors behind floods, to quantify their risk, and to communicate this risk to planners and cit- 3. Provide a tool by which planners in the Carinthia region izens. Furthermore, the need for increasingly sophisticated could assess vulnerability to flooding. understanding of flood risks has not gone unnoticed by the While reviewing literature and exploring the results of this European Union (EU) (Paulus et al., 2004). The EU Flood analysis, the authors were able to not only answer the afore- Directive, developed in 2006, has called for a reduction mentioned questions, but also identify a number of subtleties in flood-related risks to health, property and infrastructure underlying the subject of flood risk within the study region (Paulus et al., 2004). Leading up to the establishment of this in Lower Austria. More revealing than the spatial distribu- directive, the nations impacted by the 2002 event gathered tion of recovery potential was the lack of research and in- at a workshop hosted in Vienna. Experts in numerous flood- formation focused on the socio-cultural aspects of flooding. related fields worked to develop a series of recommendations When considered in conjunction with the structural and en- related to flood risk reduction strategies (Nachtnebel, 2007). gineering focus of the current literature on flooding in the The fatal flaw in this workshop, as pointed out by Nacht- region, it becomes clear that an alternative approach to as- nebel (2007), was the fact that the shortcomings to flood sessing flood risk is necessary. It is speculated that many risk management identified in Vienna were no different than flooding problems in Austria stem from anthropogenic al- those identified following floods a half-century prior. To this terations to rivers and streams (Arellano et al., 2007). Over- end, Nachtnebel (2007) has suggested that insufficient imple- managing these features has led to a false sense of security, mentation and coordination are the primary limiting factors stimulated development in hazard zones, and exaggerated the to improved flood risk management in Central Europe. intersection between vulnerable populations and the physical This lack of follow through on flood mitigation planning is elements which put them at risk. Continuing to rely on flood not as pervasive as Nachtnebel (2007) might suggest. Vary- mitigation strategies based primarily on the engineering and ing levels of action can be seen across the Central Euro- physical factors driving risk may be inadvertently increasing pean countries represented at the 2003 Vienna workshop, public apathy towards flooding. Furthermore, it is important and in turn several regions of Austria have seen a proactive that officials charged with flood control begin to adopt a more movement towards improved flood management. Of partic- investigative approach to assessing risk. ular interest is the federal state of Carinthia. Following the 2002 floods, the Hydrologic Department of Carinthia devel- 1.1 Flood history and study region oped a database-driven software system to house flood and water-related data for retrieval and analysis. The system of- Central Europe has long been at significant risk from flood- fers users the capability to conduct flood impact assessments related hazards, especially those areas lying within the and a platform for information exchange between experts and Danube Basin (Zischg et al., 2011). Extended periods of rain scientists in the region.