MANAGING FUTURE RISKS AND BUILDING SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE6 Coordinating Lead Authors: Athanasios T. Vafeidis (Germany/Greece) Lead Authors: Ameer A. Abdulla (Spain/Egypt), Alberte Bondeau (France), Lluis Brotons (Spain), Ralf Ludwig (Germany), Michelle Portman (Israel), Lena Reimann (Germany), Michalis Vousdoukas (Italy/Greece), Elena Xoplaki (Germany/Greece) Contributing Authors: Najet Aroua (Algeria), Lorine Behr (Germany), Francesco Dottori (Italy), Joaquim Garrabou (Spain), Christos Giannakopoulos (Greece), Guillaume Rohat (Switzerland/France), Elias Symeonakis (UK/Greece) This chapter should be cited as: Vafeidis AT, Abdulla AA, Bondeau A, Brotons L, Ludwig R, Portman M, Reimann L, Vousdoukas M, Xoplaki E 2020 Managing future risks and building socio-ecological resilience in the Mediterranean. In: Climate and Environmental Change in the Mediterranean Basin – Current Situation and Risks for the Future. First Mediterranean Assessment Report [Cramer W, Guiot J, Marini K (eds.)] Union for the Mediterranean, Plan Bleu, UNEP/MAP, Marseille, France, pp. 539-588. 540 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC CHAPTER 6 - MANAGING FUTURE RISKS AND BUILDING SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE Table of contents 6 Managing future risks and building socio-ecological resilience .................................................................. 543 Executive summary .......................................................................................................................................................................... 543 6.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 543 6.2 Human health impacts ................................................................................................................................................................ 544 6.2.1 Future health risks .......................................................................................................................................................... 544 6.2.2 Management approaches, governance, and adaptation for health risks ................................... 545 6.2.3 Case studies ......................................................................................................................................................................... 546 6.2.4 Innovation ............................................................................................................................................................................... 546 6.3 Water security ................................................................................................................................................................................... 547 6.3.1 Future risks for water security................................................................................................................................547 6.3.2 Management approaches, governance, and adaptation for water security ............................. 547 6.3.3 Case studies ......................................................................................................................................................................... 548 6.3.4 Innovation ............................................................................................................................................................................... 549 6.4 Agricultural drought ..................................................................................................................................................................... 550 6.4.1 Future drought risks in agriculture......................................................................................................................550 6.4.2 Management approaches, governance, and adaptation for agricultural drought ...............................................................................................................................................550 Adjusting irrigation water supply to satisfy water requirements ............................................................ 550 Reducing water stress ..................................................................................................................................................... 551 6.4.3 Case studies ......................................................................................................................................................................... 552 6.4.4 Innovation ............................................................................................................................................................................... 552 Mycorrhizal symbiosis ...................................................................................................................................................... 552 Composting ............................................................................................................................................................................ 553 6.5 Wildfres .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 553 6.5.1 Future wildfre risks ........................................................................................................................................................ 553 6.5.2 Management approaches, governance, and adaptation for wildfres .......................................... 554 6.5.3 Case studies ......................................................................................................................................................................... 555 6.5.4 Innovation ............................................................................................................................................................................... 555 6.6 Soil erosion, degradation, and desertifcation ............................................................................................................ 555 6.6.1 Future risks for soils ...................................................................................................................................................... 555 6.6.2 Management approaches, governance, and adaptation for soil protection ............................. 556 6.6.3 Case studies ......................................................................................................................................................................... 557 6.6.4 Innovation ............................................................................................................................................................................... 557 6.7 Heat waves ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 558 6.7.1 Future heat wave risks .................................................................................................................................................. 558 6.7.2 Management approaches, governance, and adaptation for heat wave risks .......................... 558 6.8 River and pluvial fooding ......................................................................................................................................................... 559 6.8.1 Future food risk ................................................................................................................................................................ 559 6.8.2 Management approaches, governance, and adaptation for food protection ............................. 559 6.8.3 Case studies and innovation .....................................................................................................................................560 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN | MedECC 541 CHAPTER 6 - MANAGING FUTURE RISKS AND BUILDING SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE 6.9 Sea-level rise: coastal erosion and fooding, saltwater intrusion ............................................................... 560 6.9.1 Future risk associated with sea-level rise ...................................................................................................... 560 6.9.2 Management approaches, governance, and adaptation for coastal protection .................... 561 6.9.3 Case studies ......................................................................................................................................................................... 562 6.9.4 Innovation ............................................................................................................................................................................... 562 6.10 Seawater temperature anomalies and extremes .................................................................................................... 563 6.10.1 Future risk of marine heat waves .........................................................................................................................563 6.10.2 Management approaches, governance, and adaptation for ocean warming ..........................564 6.11 Ocean acidifcation ....................................................................................................................................................................