Public Opinion Survey Residents of Moldova February-March 2017 Detailed Methodology • The survey was coordinated by Dr. Rasa Alisauskiene from Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Magenta Consulting. • Data was collected throughout Moldova (with the exception of Transnistria) between February 13 and March 07, 2017 through face-to-face interviews in respondents’ homes. • The sample consisted of 1,510 permanent residents of Moldova aged 18 and older and eligible to vote and is representative of the general population by age, gender, education, region and settlement size. • A multistage probability sampling method was used, with random route and next birthday respondent selection procedures. • Stage One: All districts of Moldova are grouped into 11 groups; all regions (with the exception of Transnistria) were surveyed. • Stage Tw o : Selection of the settlements (cities and villages.) o Settlements were selected at random. o The number of settlements selected in each region was proportional to the share of population living in the particular type of the settlement in each region. • Stage Three: Primary sampling units were described. • The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.5 percent. • The response rate was 67 percent. • Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. • This survey was funded by the National Endowment for Democracy. 2 Mood of the Country Generally speaking, do you think that things in Moldova are going in the right direction or wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/No answer 90% 83% 82% 79% 80% 73% 74% 70% 66% 61% 62% 58% 57% 58% 60% 55% 54% 54% 53% 51% 51% 47% 47% 50% 45% 42% 40% 41% 40% 42% 41% 32% 37% 38% 38% 30% 34% 33% 32% 33% 30% 31% 20% 27% 19% 13% 22% 21% 11% 17% 10% 10% 14% 15% 14% 15% 14% 5% 5% 12% 13% 12% 10% 11% 11% 6% 8% 9% 9% 8% 5% 8% 0% Apr-06 Apr-08 Jan-12 Jun-09 Jun-14 Sep-10 Sep-14 Sep-16 Mar-04 Mar-07 Mar-16 Feb-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Nov-04 Nov-08 Nov-09 May-10 Oct-15* Mar-17** *In December 2014, news broke of a major banking scandal involving nearly $1 billion missing from three state banks. **In 2016, Moldova conducted the first popular election of the president since 1996. Igor Dodon was elected in the second round contest on November 13, 2016. 4 Are you satisfied with the pace of change in Moldova today? I am satisfied; change is happening at the right pace I am dissatisfied; change is not happening fast enough I am dissatisfied; change is happening too fast No change is taking place Don’t know/No answer March 2017 10% 45% 9% 33% 3% September 2016 3% 38% 7% 49% 3% March 2016 4% 31% 15% 46% 4% October 2015 1% 30% 15% 50% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 5 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in Moldova changed? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/No answer March 2017 1% 16% 35% 29% 15% 3% September 2016 1% 6% 25% 30% 35% 3% March 2016 1% 6% 23% 32% 36% 2% October 2015 4% 16% 34% 42% 4% September 2014 6% 22% 24% 21% 19% 7% June 2014 4% 20% 33% 23% 14% 6% January 2012 2% 13% 31% 28% 22% 4% December 2011 2% 15% 20% 31% 29% 3% August 2011 5% 23% 34% 17% 18% 3% February 2011 3% 25% 27% 22% 18% 5% September 2010 5% 18% 28% 26% 17% 6% May 2010 2% 14% 30% 30% 19% 5% February 2010 2% 11% 24% 38% 21% 4% November 2009 2% 8% 34% 39% 10% 7% June 2009 1% 9% 22% 42% 20% 5% November 2008 2% 20% 30% 28% 15% 5% April 2008 2% 13% 30% 29% 20% 6% March 2007 4% 24% 32% 27% 10% 4% April 2006 3% 24% 36% 27% 5% 5% November 2004 5% 26% 37% 22% 6% 4% March 2004 3% 23% 37% 25% 9% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 6 Over the last 12 months, how has the financial situation of your household changed? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/No answer March 2017 1% 11% 53% 23% 10% 2% September 2016 1%7% 42% 24% 23% 2% March 2016 1%5% 32% 33% 27% 2% October 2015 4% 24% 33% 35% 4% September 2014 4% 21% 38% 19% 15% 3% June 2014 2% 18% 45% 24% 9% 2% January 2012 2% 10% 41% 29% 15% 3% December 2011 1% 13% 39% 28% 17% 2% August 2011 4% 18% 43% 18% 14% 3% February 2011 1% 16% 34% 31% 15% 3% September 2010 4% 14% 36% 29% 14% 4% May 2010 1% 11% 42% 29% 15% 2% February 2010 1% 8% 36% 36% 16% 4% November 2009 1%7% 46% 34% 9% 3% June 2009 1% 9% 32% 36% 17% 5% November 2008 1% 15% 39% 27% 14% 4% April 2008 2% 11% 37% 25% 16% 9% March 2007 3% 19% 41% 23% 9% 5% April 2006 2% 25% 44% 22% 5%1% November 2004 4% 23% 47% 20% 5%1% March 2004 2% 16% 48% 22% 10% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 7 In your opinion, how will economic situation of Moldova change in the next 12 months? Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/No answer March 2017 4% 27% 32% 19% 7% 11% September 2016 1% 13% 35% 20% 17% 14% March 2016 2% 14% 34% 21% 19% 10% October 2015 1%6% 21% 30% 32% 10% September 2014 11% 27% 24% 11% 12% 15% June 2014 6% 24% 29% 17% 7% 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 8 What are the most important problems that Moldova is facing at the moment? (Respondents permitted to supply three spontaneous answers) Corruption 38% Unemployment 35% Low income/Pensions 34% Poverty 16% Emigration 15% High prices/Inflation 13% Economic crisis 8% Roads 7% Bad government 6% "The stolen billion" 5% Low standard of living 4% Government indifference 4% Citizen indifference 3% Oligarchy 3% Expensive medicine 3% Expensive Utilities/Housing 2% Instability 2% Crime 2% Healthcare 2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 9 What are the most important problems facing your village/town at the moment? (Respondents permitted to supply three spontaneous answers) Roads 45% Unemployment 20% Cleanliness 11% Low income/Pensions 11% Emigration 8% Transportation 8% High prices/Inflation 8% Expensive utilities/Housing 7% Water supply/Drinking water 6% Lack of sanitation or sewerage 6% Bad mayor 5% Insufficient street lighting 5% Poor work of sanitation services 4% Citizen indifference 4% Corruption 4% Gas supply 3% Poverty 3% Lack of qualified medical personnel 2% Poor conditions at schools 2% School closing 2% Healthcare system 2% Lack of parks 2% Bad infrastructure 2% Homeless dogs 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 10 What are the most important problems facing you and your household? (Respondents permitted to supply three spontaneous answers) Low income/Financial problems 49% Unemployment 14% Expensive utilities/Housing 12% Health problems 10% High prices/Inflation 8% Emigration 8% Expensive medicine/Poor medical service 6% Loneliness 3% Poverty 3% Low standard of living 3% Housing/Utilities 2% No firewood 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 11 How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Moldova? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know/No answer March 2017 2% 24% 34% 37% 3% September 2016 2% 12% 26% 54% 6% March 2016 3% 11% 22% 58% 6% October 2015 1% 7% 23% 66% 3% September 2014 9% 31% 26% 26% 7% June 2014 4% 41% 30% 16% 9% January 2012 1% 18% 43% 27% 11% December 2011 3% 23% 36% 29% 9% August 2011 5% 25% 39% 22% 9% February 2011 3% 29% 36% 21% 10% September 2010 5% 23% 41% 24% 8% May 2010 2% 27% 40% 21% 10% February 2010 4% 22% 37% 27% 10% November 2009 3% 27% 37% 20% 14% June 2009 1% 16% 41% 25% 17% November 2008 2% 21% 42% 20% 15% April 2008 2% 17% 41% 24% 16% March 2007 5% 21% 41% 18% 15% April 2006 1% 25% 43% 14% 17% November 2004 2% 26% 44% 14% 14% March 2004 2% 24% 44% 17% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 12 Which of these statements is closest to your own point of view? Our society needs serious reforms (structural and systemic change) Our society needs gradual reforms which preserve the existing system Our society has to be protected from the forces who want to change the current order Don't know/No answer March 2017 60% 17% 13% 10% September 2016 78% 9% 7% 6% March 2016 74% 12% 6% 8% October 2015 71% 14% 9% 6% September 2014 58% 21% 11% 10% June 2014 57% 24% 8% 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 13 If you could have only one or the other, which is more important to you: a democratic system of government or a prosperous economy? Democracy is definitely more important to me Democracy is somewhat more important to me Economic prosperity is somewhat more important to me Economic prosperity is definitely more important to me Don’t know/No answer March 2017 17% 9% 20% 50% 4% September 2016 17% 6% 24% 43% 10% March 2016 22% 13% 17% 40% 8% October 2015 18% 7% 15% 53% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 14 Are people in Moldova afraid to openly express their political views? Majority are afraid Many are afraid Some are afraid Nobody is afraid Don't know/No answer March 2017 24% 26% 27% 19% 3% September 2016 39% 26% 17% 15% 3% March 2016 42% 26% 19% 11% 2% September 2014 17% 24% 30% 17% 12% June 2014 27% 30% 24% 15% 4% January 2012 28% 32% 28% 9% 3% December 2011 31% 26% 23% 16% 4% August 2011 34% 31% 18% 10% 7% February 2011 25% 30% 22% 18% 5% September 2010 31% 27% 19% 17% 6% May 2010 25% 25% 24% 17% 8% February 2010 30% 27% 24% 14% 5% November 2009 30% 32% 22% 10% 6% June 2009 30% 29% 19% 13% 9% November 2008 26% 28% 24% 16% 6% April 2008 29% 27% 22% 14% 8% March 2007 28% 27% 20% 15% 10% April 2006 23% 32% 26% 14% 5% November 2004 25% 31% 25% 14% 5% March 2004 27% 27% 25% 16% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 15 Views on Corruption Do you consider the country to be governed in the interest of the majority of people