THE ALBANIAN GEOPOLITICAL FACTOR IN THE WESTERN BALKANS AUTHORS Alfonc Rakaj / Naim Rashiti / Ardita Abazi Imeri /Ardita Vejseli / Arianit Tolaj EDITOR Leonie Vrugtman IDM 2020 This report was prepared in the framework of the project ‘Europeanisation Beyond Process’ supported by the Open Society Initiative for Europe (OSIFE). The views and opinions expressed in this survey report are those of the respondents, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or views of the authors or the organisations involved in drafting this report. Findings and conclusions, due to the small sample size and homogeneous sample, should be used only as a starting point for new research that further explores the concepts discussed in this report. List of Abbreviations AA - Alliance of Albanians AAK - Alliance for the Future of Kosovo AKR - New Kosovo Alliance ASK - Kosovo Agency of Statistics CSO - Civil Society Organisation DPA - Democratic Party of Albanians DUI - Democratic Union of Albanians EU - European Union LDK - Democratic League of Kosovo LVV - Lëvizja Vetëvendosje (Self-Determination Movement) NATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organization OFA - Ohrid Framework Agreement PDK - Democratic Party of Kosovo RIEDA - Research Institute of Development and International Affairs SDSM - Social Democratic Union of Macedonia US - United States of America WB - Western Balkan Table of Contents List of Abbreviations .............................................................................................................. 2 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 4 Case study: North Macedonia................................................................................................ 7 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 7 State-building process and demographics in North Macedonia ...................................................... 8 Demographics of North Macedonia ............................................................................................. 10 Defining the Albanian political factor ........................................................................................... 11 Nationalism and the “Albanian factor”......................................................................................... 18 The Albanian factor as an anchor for cooperation ........................................................................ 22 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 25 Case Study: Kosovo.............................................................................................................. 27 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 27 Demographics of the Republic of Kosovo ..................................................................................... 28 Albanian Factor on the region, rhetoric, and complicity of relations............................................. 30 Definition of “Albanian Political Factor” ....................................................................................... 35 Nationalism and the “Albanian factor”......................................................................................... 37 The Albanian political factor as an anchor for cooperation........................................................... 41 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 43 Case Study: Albania ............................................................................................................. 45 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 45 Survey results .............................................................................................................................. 47 Nationalism and the “Albanian factor”......................................................................................... 50 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 56 Regional comparison ........................................................................................................... 57 Contribution of the Albanian political factor to important political issues .................................... 57 Support for Albanian nationalism and narratives associated with it (i.e. Greater Albania). ........... 59 Kosovo Serbia Dialogue and Perceptions on ‘Border Correction’ Proposals .................................. 60 The Albanian political factor as an anchor for development and democratisation ........................ 61 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 63 Introduction Almost three decades after the violent disintegration of Yugoslavia, the region still suffers the consequences of the resulting conflicts such as poverty, corruption, weak governance, and economic despair. The threats of nationalism are moulded by the opportunities it presents to populists, hard- liners and consumed political figures who leverage nationalist sentiments to gain or stay in power; vindicate themselves from their poor track record; rally support and discredit their opponents. In a nutshell, such methods yield immense political benefits for their proponents, as it enables populist leaders to change the narrative to something in which they alone and their close collaborators emerge as heroes, patriots and eventually, beneficiaries. This ‘go-it-alone’ nationalist approach hinders prosperity, impedes on democratic processes, disregards human rights and the freedom of expression, and tarnishes hopes for regional cooperation and stability. To counter the appeal of such disruptive powers, it is necessary to anchor balancing factors ensuring the geostrategic orientation of the region towards integration with the European Union and commitment to democratic values of accountability, transparency, the rule of law, human rights, and regional cooperation. Although with mixed democratic credentials, the ethnic Albanian political factor has been unwavering in its support and efforts to enhance cooperation and advance the Euro-Atlantic integration of the region. There are two primary considerations for this. Firstly, despite being dispersed in different countries1, the Albanian political factor has maintained its commitment to the Euro-Atlantic perspective of the region. While this has not always translated into a genuine commitment to the rule of law and democratic values at home, its Western geostrategic and political orientation has been unequivocal, even in times when nationalist rhetoric has been used. Secondly, the determinant role of the Albanian political factor in the political life of at least three of the six Western Balkan countries, namely Albania, Kosovo and North Macedonia, where they either constitute a majority or serve as key governing partners. This paper provides insight into the composition, nature, perception, and the role of the Albanian political factor in the Republic of Albania, Kosovo, and North Macedonia. Through targeted surveys of the socio-political elites in the three target countries, the paper identifies and analyses individual perceptions of the Albanian political factor and seeks to identify ways through which nationalist2 elements within the political factor can be contained. The paper explores opportunities to instrumentalise this factor to foster regional stability, good neighbourly relations, democratisation and EU integration. As the first of its kind, the study aims to create a 2030 Roadmap for the Albanian 1 Ethnic Albanians live in Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro and in Serbia. Whereas in Albania and Kosovo ethnic Albanians form the majority of inhabitants, Albanians are a smaller portion of the population in North Macedonia and considered an ethnic minority in Montenegro and Serbia. In North Macedonia they constitute at least 25% of the population, in Montenegro ethnic Albanians make up around 5% of the population, and in Serbia 0.8% (according to the 2002 census). Such figures are not universally accepted as genuine. 2 When speaking about “negative nationalist narratives” throughout the paper, the authors mean hard-lined ethnic nationalism or chauvinism, not patriotism or the sense of feeling proud of one’s heritage, ethnicity or country. geopolitical factor driven by European values such as freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. In the surveys, respondents answered a series of questions aimed at identifying the Albanian political factor and highlighting its role and contribution to a series of key issues related to democratisation, rule of law, regional cooperation, and Euro-Atlantic integration. What emerged is a clearer picture of who constitutes the “Albanian political factor,” what it does and how nationalistic it is. The results of the survey uncover the perceived contribution of the Albanian political factor in furthering important domestic and national agendas such as accountability, rule of law and regional cooperation. More importantly, respondents provided