DOT/FAA/TC-15/33 Obsolescence and Life Federal Aviation Administration William J. Hughes Technical Center Cycle Management Aviation Research Division Atlantic City International Airport for Avionics New Jersey 08405 November 2015 Final Report This document is available to the U.S. public through the National Technical Information Services (NTIS), Springfield, Virginia 22161. This document is also available from the Federal Aviation Administration William J. Hughes Technical Center at actlibrary.tc.faa.gov. U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration NOTICE This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The U.S. Government assumes no liability for the contents or use thereof. The U.S. Government does not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the objective of this report. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the funding agency. This document does not constitute FAA policy. Consult the FAA sponsoring organization listed on the Technical Documentation page as to its use. This report is available at the Federal Aviation Administration William J. Hughes Technical Center’s Full-Text Technical Reports page: actlibrary.tc.faa.gov in Adobe Acrobat portable document format (PDF). Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No. DOT/FAA/TC-15/33 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date OBSOLESCENCE AND LIFE CYCLE MANAGEMENT FOR AVIONICS November 2015 6. Performing Organization Code 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. Chris Wilkinson 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) Honeywell Aerospace 7000 Columbia Gateway Drive Columbia, MD 21046 11. Contract or Grant No. DTFACT-11-C-00006 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Final Report FAA National Headquarters 14. Sponsoring Agency Code 950 L’Enfant Plaza North, SW AIR-134 Washington, DC 20024 15. Supplementary Notes The Federal Aviation Administration William J. Hughes Technical Center Aviation Research Division COR was Charles Kilgore. 16. Abstract This research identifies ways to identify and mitigate obsolescence risks in avionics and to provide related aviation safety input to the Federal Aviation Administration for the development of regulations, policy, guidance, and training. Obsolescence and obsolescence management of avionics products are a technically challenging and costly financial problem with many adverse business impacts for both the avionics suppliers and their customers. Though obsolescence is not unique to the aerospace industry, it presents special problems because of the typically long life cycle of aircraft and a requirement to comply with airworthiness regulations that make continuous change complex and costly. Obsolescence is the inevitable consequence of the dependence of aerospace on a supply base whose major markets are outside of aerospace and whose technology life cycles are much shorter than those of other markets. Aerospace has a continual demand for technological progress in aircraft system capabilities and safety improvements, but on a much longer timescale than the technology turnover timescale of the supply base. Obsolescence is an inevitable occurrence; therefore, the goal of obsolescence and lifecycle management is to minimize the recurring cost impacts and the disruption of supply to customers while maintaining continued airworthiness and regulatory compliance. This report describes the current state of obsolescence management in the aerospace industry; the processes, standards, and tools now being used; and the underlying causes. The report addresses the identification, mitigation, and avoidance of issues related to obsolescence in systems, software, and airborne electronic hardware development; the related design assurance and certification considerations; and optimal methods for life-cycle maintenance and technical refreshment. The report identifies known and emerging obstacles, problems, issues, and gaps in existing standards and guidance; proposes standards and assurance techniques that may minimize the impact of obsolescence; and suggests how manufacturers can proactively plan and manage the life cycle of their products. The report describes the extant research on numerical methods for obsolescence risk assessment and related economic modeling, and provides recommendations for further public guidance and standards that would assist industry and users in adapting to a dynamic environment. The report suggests some industry and regulatory practices that could promote best practices; reduce costs and inconvenience; and improve the product life-cycle planning process. Finally, the report suggests some relevant research topics that are not well addressed presently and should be considered for future work. The report suggests that the obsolescence problem cannot be solved only by engineering methods, but also requires proactive measures and risk-awareness planning by both customers and suppliers. Obsolescence is a complex mix of engineering, economic, and business issues with many associated uncertainties. These uncertainties arise from the supply base and the customer base, which require marketing, engineering, and economic planning and analysis using numerical risk-assessment methods that measure uncertainty. 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement Airborne electronic hardware, Obsolescence, Life-cycle management, This document is available to the U.S. public through the Life-cycle plan, Avionics sustainment, COTS, Intellectual property, National Technical Information Service (NTIS), Springfield, Continued airworthiness Virginia 22161. This document is also available from the Federal Aviation Administration William J. Hughes Technical Center at actlibrary.tc.faa.gov. 19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price 220 Unclassified Unclassified Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of completed page authorized ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author thanks the following individuals for their thoughtful suggestions and comments: Barbara Lingberg (Federal Aviation Administration [FAA]), Chuck Kilgore (FAA), Robin Sova (FAA), Gary Horan (FAA), Bob Manners (Lumark Technologies, Inc., contractor for the FAA), and Bill Haselrick (Honeywell). iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xi 1 INTRODUCTION 1 2 LITERATURE SEARCH 2 3 CURRENT INDUSTRY PRACTICE 3 3.1 Responses to Obsolescence 8 3.2 Obsolescence in the GA Industry 9 3.3 Military Obsolescence 10 3.4 The Causes of Obsolescence 11 3.5 Obsolescence of Systems 12 3.5.1 Legislation-Induced Obsolescence 13 3.5.2 Regulation- and Mandate-Induced Obsolescence 14 3.6 Obsolescence of System Software 16 3.7 Obsolescence of Hardware Components 17 3.8 Obsolescence of Tools and Platforms 18 3.9 Obsolescence of Manufacturing and Repair Facilities 19 3.10 Obsolescence Management Tools and Resources 19 3.10.1 Component Obsolescence Information Services 19 3.10.2 Obsolete Component Sources 22 3.10.3 Standards, Guides, and Other Documents 22 4 KNOWN AND EMERGING ISSUES 23 4.1 Components Obsolescence Forecasting 23 4.1.1 Predictions Uncertainty 24 4.2 LTB Estimation and Inventory Management 25 4.3 Optimum Resolution Method Selection 26 4.4 The PBL Risk Assessment 26 4.5 Design Patterns 27 4.6 Customer Notification Period of System EOL and Continued Support 27 4.7 Maintaining Software and HDL Tools and Platforms 27 4.8 Maintaining Manufacturing and Repair Capability 28 4.9 Compliance Auditing 28 4.10 PCN Processing 28 4.11 Security 28 iv 5 EXISTING R&D 29 5.1 Economic and Life-Cycle Modeling 30 5.1.1 Estimating Lifetime Buy Quantity 30 5.1.2 LCC Estimation 31 5.1.3 Selection and Timing of Resolution Options 31 5.2 Component Obsolescence Forecasting 32 5.2.1 Demand-Side Methods 32 5.2.2 Supply-Side Methods 33 5.3 Design Methods for Obsolescence and Mitigation 34 5.3.1 Mitigating Software Obsolescence 34 6 STANDARDS AND ASSURANCE 34 6.1 Product Sunset Notification 35 6.2 Modifications and Continued Airworthiness 35 6.3 Rulemaking Procedures 37 7 HIGH-VALUE APPROACHES 38 8 SHARED ISSUES 41 8.1 Electronic Component Market Segments 43 8.2 Electronic Device Organizations 45 9 USING COTS IP 47 9.1 Definition of COTS IP 48 9.2 Similarities Between COTS IP Assurance and Assurance of COTS Electronic Components 49 9.3 COTS IP Usage 50 9.3.1 A Suggested Approach to COTS IP Assurance 52 9.3.2 Representative Mapping of RTCA/DO-254 Data Items and Supplier Documents 55 9.4 Additional Considerations 57 9.4.1 Advanced Methods 57 10 FINDINGS 59 v 11 FUTURE WORK 61 12 RECOMMENDATIONS 63 13 REFERENCES 64 APPENDICES A—Obsolescence Capability Self-Assessment B—Generic Product Life-Cycle Plan C—Literature Search Results vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1 Honeywell obsolescence management process 8 2 Obsolescence fishbone diagram 12 3 Life-cycle curve 18 4 FreeScale life-cycle coding scheme 21 5 The flow of components between electronic device organizations 42 6 Global semiconductor market share, 2011 44 7 Process map 54 vii LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 DMSMS mitigation practices for each intensity level 7 2 High-value approaches 39 3 Global market forecast for semiconductors 44 4 Electronic device organizations’ primary concerns