INDIA COUNTRY REPORT CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT IN TAMIL NADU Submitted to Tamil Nadu State Planning Commission By Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) January, 2013 United Nations Development Programme CRISIS PREVENTION AND RECOVERY Supported by United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Bureau for Crisis Prevention & Recovery (BCPR)-Bureau for Development Policy (BDP) Under the Climate Risk Management - Technical Assistance Support Project (CRM-TASP) Copyright © UNDP 2013 All rights reserved This report was commissioned by the United Nations Development Programme’s Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BCPR) under the Climate Risk Management – Technical Assistance Support Project (CRM-TASP) This CRM-TASP report is authored by: Arjunapermal Subbiah Ramraj Narasimhan J. Shanmugasundaram Carlyne Yu of Regional Multi-hazard Early warning System ( RIMES) through a contract administered by Asian Disaster Preparedness Center. Cite as: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BCPR). 2013. Climate Risk Management for Agriculture Sector in Tamil Nadu State of India. New York, NY: UNDP BCPR Published by: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BCPR), One UN Plaza, New York-10017 UNDP partners with people at all levels of society to help build nations that can withstand crisis, and drive and sustain the kind of growth that improves the quality of life for everyone. On the ground in 177 countries and territories, we offer global perspective and local insight to help empower lives and build resilient nations. www.undp.org 2 CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................... 4 FOREWORD ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 6 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ...................................................................................................................................................................... 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................................................... 9 INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................................................................................11 BACKGROUND ..........................................................................................................................................................................11 OBJECTIVES ..............................................................................................................................................................................11 KEY CONCEPTS .........................................................................................................................................................................12 APPROACH AND METHODS ....................................................................................................................................................12 REPORT STRUCTURE ...............................................................................................................................................................13 DEVELOPMENT PROFILE ................................................................................................................................................................14 CURRENT DEVELOPMENT CONDITIONS, TRENDS AND CHALLENGES ..............................................................................14 STATE DEVELOPMENT VISION, OBJECTIVES AND PRIORITIES ...........................................................................................16 CONDITIONS, TRENDS AND PRIORITIES OF PRIORITY SECTOR .........................................................................................16 KEY MESSAGES (DEVELOPMENT PROFILE) ...........................................................................................................................20 CLIMATE PROFILE ...........................................................................................................................................................................21 NATIONAL WEATHER AND CLIMATE CONTEXT ....................................................................................................................21 CURRENT CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE EXTREMES ...............................................................................................22 OBSERVABLE CHANGES IN CLIMATE VARIABLES AND HAZARD ........................................................................................27 PROJECTED CLIMATE TREND ..................................................................................................................................................29 STATUS OF CLIMATE AND HAZARD INFORMATION AT NATIONAL AND REGIONAL LEVELS ..........................................30 KEY MESSAGES (CLIMATE PROFILE) ......................................................................................................................................30 CLIMATE IMPACTS AND RISKS FOR AGRICULTURE .....................................................................................................................31 PAST CLIMATE IMPACTS ..........................................................................................................................................................31 FUTURE CLIMATE IMPACTS .....................................................................................................................................................34 SENSITIVITY OF AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE ........................................................................................................................36 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ...............................................................................................................................................................43 CLIMATE THREATS TO KEY DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES .....................................................................................................46 KEY MESSAGES (CLIMATE IMPACTS AND RISKS FOR AGRICULTURE) ................................................................................47 CURRENT CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT .....................................................................................................................................49 INSTITUTIONAL AND POLICY ARRANGEMENTS FOR CRM .................................................................................................49 MAJOR RELEVANT ACTIVITIES ALREADY IN PLACE OR ONGOING/UPCOMING TOWARD CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT ........50 CAPACITY ASSESSMENT FOR CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT .............................................................................................51 KEY MESSAGES (CURRENT CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT) ................................................................................................53 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT .........................................................................................................54 ENDNOTES ......................................................................................................................................................................................62 3 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADB Asian Development Bank AMFUs Agro-Met Field Units AP Andhra Pradesh BCPR Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery BDP EEG Bureau for Development Policy Energy and Environment Group BOB Bay of Bengal CMIP3 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 3 CRM Climate Risk Management CRM TASP Climate Risk Management Technical Assistance Support Project CS Cyclonic Storm CV Coefficient of Variation DDMA District Disaster Management Authority DES Department of Economics and Statistics DESINVENTAR Disaster Information Management System ECHAM European Centre/Hamburg Model ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation GCM Global Climate Model GDI Gender Development Index GDP Gross Domestic Products GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab GSDP Gross State Domestic Products HadCM3 Hadley Centre Coupled Model, Version 3, United Kingdom HDI Human Development Index HYV High Yield Varieties IAMWARM Irrigated Agriculture Modernization and Water bodies Restoration and Management IEC Information Education and Communication IMD Indian Meteorological Department INR Indian Rupees IOD Indian Ocean Dipole IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPRC International Pacific Research Center ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone MGNREGS Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme MJO Madden Julian Oscillation MSL Mean Sea Level NABARD National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development NAPCC National Action Plan on Climate Change NATCOM National Communication NE North East 4 NGO Non Governmental Organization NRLM National Rural Livelihood Mission PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation PDS Public Distribution System PHC Primary Health Centers PWD Public Works Department RADMMD Administration’s Disaster Management and Mitigation Department RCM Regional Climate Model RIMES Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia SAPCC State Action Plan on Climate Change SCS Severe Cyclonic Storm SDMA State Disaster Management Authority SRI System of Rice