Technical Compendium: Descriptive Agricultural Statistics and Analysis for Zambia by Solomon Tembo and Nicholas Sitko Working Paper 76 August 2013 Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI) Lusaka, Zambia Downloadable at: http://www.iapri.org.zm/index.php? and http://www.aec.msu.edu/fs2/zambia/index.htm Technical Compendium: Descriptive Agricultural Statistics and Analysis for Zambia by Solomon Tembo and Nicholas Sitko August 2013 Tembo is senior research associate and Sitko is research fellow at the Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI), Lusaka. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute is a non-profit company limited by guarantee and collaboratively works with public and private stakeholders. IAPRI exists to carry out agricultural policy research and outreach, serving the agricultural sector in Zambia so as to contribute to sustainable pro-poor agricultural development. The authors are grateful to Auckland Kuteya and Mwamba Chishimba for helping to obtain data on variables used in the analysis. They also wish to thank Patricia Johannes for formatting and editorial assistance. The authors acknowledge financial support from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Zambia Mission and from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation under the Guiding Investments in Sustainable Agricultural Intensification in Africa Program. Any views expressed or remaining errors are solely the responsibility of the authors. Comments and questions should be directed to: The Executive Director Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute 26A Middleway, Kabulonga, Lusaka. Telephone: +260 211 261194; Telefax +260 211 261199; Email: [email protected], [email protected] iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background This technical compendium was developed to serve as a reference document for development organizations, researchers, government officials, and cooperating partners working in Zambia. It uses nationally representative survey data to provide descriptive trends and analysis relevant to the agricultural sector. It is also specifically targeted for organizations tasked with implementing programs associated with USAID’s Feed the Future (FtF) initiative. As such, a special section is dedicated to Eastern Province, with data disaggregation based on FtF requirements. Problem Statement Zambia, like much of the southern Africa region, remains vulnerable to unstable food prices and food insecurity, despite competitive advantages such as abundant agricultural land and a generally favorable climate for food production. The issues around food security and agriculture in southern Africa are dynamic, complex, uncertain and difficult to address. High population growth, rapid urbanization, and stagnant agricultural production are contributing to an emerging structural deficit of food crops in the region. Finding ways of effectively coping with this emerging food deficit is critical for fostering economic growth, reducing poverty, and enhancing food/nutrition security for the people of southern Africa. Addressing this challenge requires placing agriculture- and the associated processes of production, trade, processing, and consumption - at the forefront of any economic development strategy for the region. Zambia is in a unique position to not only leverage agriculture as an engine for poverty reduction and improved nutrition, but to become the breadbasket of southern Africa. The country is endowed with an abundance of fertile land, water, and a generally favorable climate for agricultural production. Zambia's small- and medium-scales farming households have in the past 5 years recorded surplus maize harvests, including consecutive record- breaking harvests, between 2009/10 and 2011/12 agricultural seasons. This has largely been due to favorable weather combined with generous subsidies for maize production and marketing. In addition, the country is experiencing high economic growth which can be largely attributed to high global copper prices and increased investment in construction. Despite these unique endowments, positive economic growth, and surplus maize production, poverty rates in the country remain high. While the poverty rates in urban areas have reduce to under 30%, poverty in rural Zambia have remained stubbornly high, at 80% of the population, and incidences of stunting, malnutrition, and wasting continue to disproportionately affect rural Zambians. Addressing these issues requires solid empirical evidence to guide investments and identify viable development strategies. The Technical Compendium aims to provide a common foundation of data and analysis to be used by the diverse stakeholders involved in Zambia’s agricultural sector. Data The data presented in this technical compendium is derived from a variety of sources. Data on household production come primarily from two nationally representative surveys: 1. the iv Crop Forecast Survey (CFS) conducted annually by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAL); and 2. the Supplemental Survey (SS) to the Post-Harvest Survey (PHS), conducted in 2001, 2004, and 2008 by MAL and the Central Statistics Office (CSO). In 2012 the SS was extended to become the Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Survey (RALS) conducted by the Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI) with CSO. The 2001, 2004, and 2008 SS are nationally representative household panel surveys. Nutritional and health data come from the Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) carried out by CSO. Other important data sources include Food and Agricultural Organization Online Statistical Database (FAOSTAT), the CSO PHS, and the Food Security Research Project (FSRP) Urban Consumption Survey. Key Findings • Zambia has a high population growth rate and is highly urbanized. About 40% of the country's population lives in urban areas. These, coupled with other factors contribute to increased pressure on Zambia’s food, health care, sanitation, and education systems, increasing threats to levels of food insecurity, malnutrition, and poverty, particularly for the poorest and most vulnerable segments of the population. • The overall poverty rate in Zambia has declined over time. However, poverty rates in rural Zambia have remained very high, with 80% of the rural population living in poverty. • The country has continued to experience chronic food and nutrition security problems. Stunting rates in Zambia stand at 46%. Stunting remains the most common nutritional disorder affecting under five years children in Zambia, above the Sub-Saharan Africa average of 42%. • Zambia’s economy has grown steadily in real terms since 2001. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Zambia grew by 7.3% in 2012 from the previous year. However the percent contribution of the agricultural sector to GDP has declined from 16% in 2001 to 12.6% in 2012. • Cropping characteristics: Small-scale farming systems in Zambia are overwhelmingly dominated by a single crop: maize. In 2011/12, 86% of all smallholders grew maize. Cassava cultivation, the second most important staple food crop, is geographic confined to the north and northwestern parts of Zambia. Groundnuts, the second most widely cultivated crop in Zambia and important source of protein in Zambian diets, are frequently intercropped with maize. In Zambia, groundnuts are often considered a women’s crop due to their importance for home consumption. • Yields: Yields for all crops in Zambia are well below global averages. National yields are generally low. The top 10% of smallholders achieve yields that are one to nearly four metric tons (mt) more than the average depending on the crop. This suggests the potential for yield improvements in Zambia. • Input use: While input use has trended upward since 2001, 45% of Zambia farmers still do not use fertilizer on their fields, while more than 40% do not use hybrid maize seeds. • Land: Despite a relatively low population density, growth in the number of rural households contributes to increasing land fragmentation and shrinking land size holding in Zambia. While the mean land size holding in Zambia is 3.27 hectares, three quarters of the rural population controls on average 2.5 hectares of land or less. This is indicative of significant differentiation within the smallholder sector. v • Despite the high prevalence of maize cultivation in rural Zambia, a considerable proportion of the small- and medium-scale agricultural households are net buyers of maize. In a record maize production year, 28% of rural households remain net buyers of maize. These farmers tend to control smaller farm sizes and tend to be located in more marginal agro-ecological zones. • Government spending on agriculture to the total government budget rose from 12.2% in 2007 to 13.6% in 2011 which is above the spending goal agreed upon under the 2003 Maputo declaration. However, procurement and distribution of maize through the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) and input subsidies through the Fertilizer Support Program/Farmer Input Support Program (FSP/FISP) account for over 80% of the total agricultural budget. vi CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..................................................................................................... iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................. viii LIST OF MAPS ....................................................................................................................