Glaciers and permafrost as water resource in Kyrgyzstan ‐ distribution, recent dynamics and hazards, and the relevance for sustainable development of Central Asian semiarid regions Murataly Turganalievich DUISHONAKUNOV A thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements of University of Giessen for the degree of Dr. rer. nat. Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics, Physics, Geography (FB07) Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Lorenz King Reviewer: Prof. Dr. Jürg Luterbacher Examiner: Prof. Dr. Andreas Dittmann Examiner: Prof. Dr. Peter Felix‐Henningsen 25 June, 2014 Justus Liebig University Giessen, Germany Preface and Acknowledgements The Kyrgyz mountain areas and their glaciers always fascinated me even as a child, as I was growing up in a quite remote mountain village, excursions to the mountains belonged to the daily life of my father and my friends at school. Later on, during my studies in Bishkek university the study of mountain environments and especially water and glaciers were of special interest to me in order to get a better understanding the of beauties and dangers of mountain areas. At Kyrgyz National University in Bishkek, I got the chance to work within several international glaciological research projects. I completed my Post Graduate Diploma on Remote Sensing Geographical Information System in the Department of Water Resources at the Centre for Space Science and Technology Education in Asia and Pacific (CSSTEAP) in India (2007‐2008), which helped me during all my research periods that followed. The glaciological work I had done and a good RS and GIS experience certainly formed a base for my successful application in the LUCA project as a PhD student. The following dissertation study has been funded by the VolkswagenStiftung and was conducted in the frame of the “Land use, ecosystem services and human welfare in Central Asia” (LUCA) project. The main contents of this thesis will be published under the title “Climate Changes in the Naryn Catchments: Consequences for Glaciers, Permafrost and the Economic Development in Kyrgyzstan” in a special volume of the ZEU research center at Giessen university for the LUCA projects results (Duishonakunov et al, 2014). The impact on the water resources is published in a second paper “Recent Glacier Changes and Their Impact on Water Resources in Chon and Kichi Naryn Catchments, Kyrgyz Republic” that appeared in the international journal “Water Science and Technology” (Duishonakunov et al, 2013). At the University of Giessen, my supervisor Prof. Lorenz King was providing the initial concept of the doctoral thesis. His continuous scientific support and guidance was invaluable during the whole process of my PhD thesis. I really cannot find words to thank him for the kind deeds he has done to me. Definitely I will repeat his style of guiding in my future work at the faculty in the Kyrgyz Republic. I learned a lot how to supervise students also. First and foremost, I would like to thank him for his understanding, helpful support and patience during my seemingly endless doctoral studies. I also wish to extend my gratitude to his family for having allowed me to get to know closely the customs and traditions of German society and having shared with me so many precious moments during my short but unforgettable visit to Germany. Moreover, I would like to extend my heartfelt gratitude to my co‐supervisor Ryskul Usubaliev for his continuous support and very helpful comments and suggestions. He always was very interested in my research questions and provided lots of information during the course of the PhD research. ii I would like to acknowledge and extend my heartfelt gratitude to Prof. Dr. Jürg Luterbacher for checking and providing valuable comments to improve the quality of this thesis I would also like to thank other LUCA supervisors and PhD students for asking many interesting questions during several seminars and workshops and providing valuable comments to improve the quality of this thesis. LUCA coordinator Dr. Ira Pawlowski always was available for advice with never ending support and good will in Giessen as well as during my field work and the workshops in Kyrgyzstan. Moreover, Dr. M. Höher and Sabine Viehmann did a great job for the administrative support of my work. Kyrgyz National University in Bishkek allowed me to reduce my teaching duty. Therefore, I would also like to acknowledge my colleagues at the department of Physical Geography and its head Prof. T. Kulmatov for their understanding and patience during my studies, to Prof. A. Osmonov for several useful discussion days, insight and feedback during the my PhD study and to the Dean of the Faculty of Geography, Ecology and Tourism Prof. R. Toktorova and Prof. M. Kadyrkulov for their permanent encouragement, and to everyone who made it possible for me to continue and finish my doctoral studies. At the Central Asia Institute for Applied Geosciences in Bishkek (CAIAG) co‐director Prof. Bolot Moldobekov generously supported my studies over three years with transport in remote areas, that otherwise could not have been researched. He always showed great interest in the progress of my studies. In the Institute of Geography at Giessen University the cartographers helped with advice and maps. This work could not have been done without the continuous support of these persons and institutions. I am deeply grateful for having given this chance as an important step in my life. Last but not least, expressions of sincere gratitude go to my family. My parents Turganaly Duishonakunov and Shaikul Yrsalieva always supported me, cheering me up whenever I experienced a new thing. My wife Gulzada Askarbekova encouraged me for intense work, hoping me to return soon from Germany with the necessary work accomplished. My deep personal thanks go to my family. iii Abbreviations ALOS Advanced Land Observing Satellite AVNIR Advanced Visible and Near Infrared Radiometer CAIAG Central Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences DEM Digital Elevation Model ELA Equilibrium‐Line Altitude GCOS Global Climate Observing System GIS Geographical Information System GLOF Glacier lake outburst flood GPS Global Positioning System GST Ground surface temperature IPA International Permafrost Association JAXA Japan Aerospace eXploration Agency MAAT Mean annual air temperature MAGST Mean annual ground surface temperature NSIDC National Snow and Ice Data Center SHI State Hydrological Institute SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics WMO World Meteorological Organization iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface and acknowledgement .................................................................................................. II Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................. IV Table of Contents . ...................................................................................................................... V List of Figures ............................................................................................................................ VII List of Tables ............................................................................................................................... X 1 INTRODUCTION, STUDY OBJECTIVES, METHODOLOGY .................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction, scope of study ............................................................................................ 1 1.2 Study objectives ............................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Methods applied and fieldwork done .............................................................................. 4 1.3.1 Glacier data and methodology ................................................................................ 4 1.3.2 Permafrost research methodology ......................................................................... 5 2 STUDY AREA ................................................................................................................... 7 2.1 Relief of the Chon Naryn and Kichi Naryn Catchments ................................................... 7 2.2 Geomorphology of the Chon Naryn and Kichi Naryn catchments ................................ 14 2.3 Climatological conditions of the Chon Naryn and Kichi Naryn catchments .................. 19 3 CLIMATE AND GLACIER CHANGES: IMPACT ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE NARYN CATCHMENT (KYRGYZ REPUBLIC) ............................................................ 30 3.1 Glaciological Introduction .............................................................................................. 30 3.1.1 Problem statement ................................................................................................ 30 3.1.2 Existing research .................................................................................................... 31 3.2 Glaciological study area ................................................................................................. 32 3.3 Glaciological Results ....................................................................................................... 33 3.3.1 Investigated glacier characteristics ..................................................................... 33 3.3.2 Glacier distribution characteristics by river basin ................................................. 35 3.4 Glacier area changes from 1965 to 2010 ......................................................................