PREDICTING FUTURE OCEANS CLIMATE CHANGE, OCEANS & FISHERIES Produced by 1 Nereus Program About the Nereus Program: The Nereus Program is an interdisciplinary ocean research initiative established in 2011 by the Nippon Foundation and the University of British Columbia. It is a partnership of eight institu- tions: the Nippon Foundation, the University of British Columbia, the University of Cambridge, Duke University, Princeton University, Stockholm University, United Nations Environmental Pro- gram-World Conservation Monitoring Centre and Utrecht University. The program is built on three core objectives: to conduct collaborative research across the natural and social sciences to better understand the future of global oceans; to develop a network of experts that can engage in discussion of complex and multifaceted questions surrounding ocean sustainability; and to trans- fer these concepts to practical solutions in global policy forums. About this report: There is a growing concern among marine scientists over the impacts of global environmental changes, specifically climate change, ocean acidification, and the loss of biodiversity, on the state of our future oceans and their capacity to produce seafood. Given the scale of these environ- mental changes and their implications for international ocean governance, it is imperative that all stakeholders involved have access to the latest scientific knowledge and understanding of the relationships between oceans, marine ecosystems and fisheries at the global level. The objective of this report is, therefore, to share scientific knowledge about the challenges and potential solutions for the sustainability of future oceans. The primary focus of the report is on the interactions between CO2 emissions, oceans and the world’s fisheries. It aims to provide a wider audience with a concise overview of what’s happening in the oceans and with fish right now—and what will be happening in the future. This report consists of seven sections, each representing a key statement on future oceans. In each section we start with a general summary of the current scientific understandings followed by the latest findings from selected studies of the Nereus Program addressing these issues. Con- tents of this report are based on the scientific views and opinions of the members of the Nereus Program, all of whom are engaged in innovative research concerning marine systems and ocean governance. A full list of publications, as well as supplementary materials on topics discussed in this report, can be accessed at: www.nereusprogram.org. Predicting Future Oceans 2 PARTNERS 3 Nereus Program Coordinating Lead Authors: William Cheung, Yoshitaka Ota, and Wilf Swartz Contributing Authors: All Nereus Participants General Editors: William Cheung, Yoshitaka Ota, Wilf Swartz, Lindsay Lafreniere, Emily Fister, Miranda Jones Nereus Participants: Principal Investigators (Steering Committee) Dr. William Cheung (University of British Columbia) Dr. Louisa Wood Dr. Villy Christensen (University of British Columbia) (UNEP-World Conservation Monitoring Centre) Dr. Patrick Halpin (Duke University) Dr. Chris McOwen Dr. Jorge Sarmiento (Princeton University) (UNEP-World Conservation Monitoring Centre) Dr. Charles Stock (National Oceanic and Atmo- Dr. Tom Spencer (University of Cambridge) spheric Administration) Dr. Mike Bithell (University of Cambridge) Dr. Carl Folke (Stockholm University) Dr. Alex Oude Elferink (Utrecht University) Dr. Henrick Österblom (Stockholm University) Dr. Erik Molenaar (Utrecht University) Mr. Mitsuyuki Unno (Nippon Foundation) Program Governance Dr. Yoshitaka Ota (University of British Columbia) Dr. Daniel Pauly (University of British Columbia) Advisory Panel Dr. Phillippe Cury (Institut de recherche pour le développement) Dr. Jeff Polovina (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Research Fellows Dr. Rebecca Asch (Princeton University) Dr. Marc Metian Dr. Andre Boustany (Duke University) (International Atomic Energy Agency) Dr. Richard Caddell (Utrecht University) Mr. Andrew Merrie (Stockholm University) Dr. Andrés Cisneros-Montemayor Ms Maria de Oca (Duke University) (University of British Columbia) Mr. Muhammed Oyinlola Dr. Mathieu Colléter (University of British Columbia) (University of British Columbia) Dr. Colleen Petrik (Princeton University) Dr. Lisa Dellmuth (Stockholm University) Dr. Gabriel Reygondeau Dr. Daniel Dunn (Duke University) (University of British Columbia) Dr. Thomas Frölicher (ETH Zurich) Dr. Ryan Rykaczewski Mr. Laurens Geffert (University of South Carolina) (University of Cambridge/UNEP-WCMC) Dr. Wilf Swartz Dr. Natasha Henschke (Princeton University) (University of British Columbia) Dr. Kelly Kearney Dr. Phil Underwood (National Oceanic and tmosphericA Administration) (University of Cambridge/UNEP-WCMC) Dr. Miranda Jones Dr. Audrey Valls (The Nature Conservancy/University of Cambridge) (Station d’Ecologie Experimentale a Moulis) Dr. Vicky Lam (University of British Columbia) Dr. James Watson (Stockholm University) Predicting Future Oceans 4 Distributions of marine fish species are expected to shift as climate change alters ocean conditions. The figures above are projections of species invasions and local extinctions by 2050 under the IPCC’s scenario representing “business as usual” in CO2 emissions. (Source: Jones and Cheung 2015) 5 Nereus Program Climate Change, Future Oceans and Fisheries Changes in sea temperature disrupt movements of water, distributions of marine organisms, and structures of ecosystems. Moreover, as the chemistry of the Earth’s atmosphere is altered through continued CO2 emissions, so too will there be demonstrable changes in the chemistry of the oceans. Evidence of increased ocean acidifi- cation and decreasing oxygen, both of which are critical factors that influence marine life and biodiversity, are mounting. Naturally, changes in the oceans will have major repercussions on their capacity to support marine life and, ultimately, fisheries. In the newly released Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the addition of chapters dedicated exclusively to ocean-climate issues marks the emergence of a consensus of this linkage between climate change, oceans and fisheries. Following this lead by the IPCC, the international institu- tions responsible for ocean governance must, therefore, function within the context of the global changes driven by CO2 emissions. To improve ocean governance in the future, we need to further develop and improve access to scientific un- derstandings of the relationship between the climate and oceans. Furthermore, researchers must continue their efforts to develop a more holistic understanding of the dynamics between oceans and more direct human-in- duced stressors such as marine pollution and overexploitation by fisheries that are likely to intensify as the oceans become more impacted by climate change. As we look toward the future of our oceans and fisheries, this knowledge must translate into public engagement and action – from the local to the global level. The following seven key statements highlight the pathways and challenges facing the future of global oceans and fisheries. In the final section of the report, we propose strategies for attaining ocean sustainability. Seven Key Statements for Future Oceans: 1. Due to CO2 emissions, changes in global ocean properties – particularly temperatures, acidity and oxygen levels – are occuring at a scale unprecedented in the last several thousands of years. 2. Climate change is expected to affect the oceans’ biological productivity–from phytoplankton to the top predators. 3. Climate change has already been affecting global marine ecosystems and fisheries, with further impacts expected given current trends in CO2 emissions. 4. Fishing exerts significant pressure on marine ecosystems globally – altering biodiversity and food web structures – and affects the ability of the international community to meet its sustainability goals. 5. The impacts of climate change interact with the existing problems of overfishing and habitat de- struction, driven largely by excess fishing fleets, coastal development and market expansion. 6. Aquaculture is developing rapidly, with the potential to supersede marine capture fish supply. Yet, the full understanding of its impact, including its long-term ecological and social sustainability, is un- clear. 7. Sustainable fisheries in the future require the further development and strengthening of interna- tional fisheries law, as well as the overarching international framework for ocean governance. Predicting Future Oceans 6 1. Due to CO2 emissions, changes in global ocean properties – particularly temperatures, acidity and oxygen levels – are occuring at a scale unprecedented in the last several thousands of years. Current scientific understanding As the global climate becomes warmer due to an fies the ocean (ocean acidification). As the water be- increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases comes more acidic, it causes problems for some ma- (GHGs) in the atmosphere (such as CO2), the ocean’s rine life, particularly those that form calcium-based temperature is also expected to rise. The average shells (such as corals, crustaceans and shellfish). sea surface temperature is projected to increase by Under high CO2 emissions scenarios, the acidity of a range of 2.0 – 3.5o C by the end of the century if the world’s oceans, as measured by pH, is likely to the current GHG emissions rate continues. decrease by 0.33