Public Health Consequences and Cost of Climate Change Impacts on Indoor Environments Prepared for: The Indoor Environments Division Office of Radiation and Indoor Air U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Washington, D.C. 20460 January 2010 Prepared by: David Mudarri, Ph.D. The Cadmus Group, Inc. Arlington, VA 22209 Contents FOREWORD...............................................................................................................................................1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................3 INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................................................................3 CHAPTER SUMMARIES...............................................................................................................................3 Chapter 1: Indoor Environmental Quality and Its Role in Protecting Public Health ..........................3 Chapter 2: Climate Change Impacts on the Outdoor Environment......................................................4 Chapter 3: Impacts Of Climate Change On Indoor Environmental Quality And Implications For The Public Health ........................................................................................................................................6 Chapter 4: Public Health Cost of Climate Change Resulting from Changes in Indoor Environments 8 Chapter 5: Summary and Conclusions ...............................................................................................14 INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................................................19 PURPOSE..................................................................................................................................................19 ORGANIZATION OF THIS REPORT ............................................................................................................19 CHAPTER 1: INDOOR ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY AND ITS ROLE IN PROTECTING PUBLIC HEALTH ...................................................................................................................................21 CHAPTER OVERVIEW ..............................................................................................................................21 Indoor Temperature and Humidity .....................................................................................................21 Indoor Pollution..................................................................................................................................22 CHAPTER 2: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE OUTDOOR ENVIRONMENT.............29 CHAPTER OVERVIEW ..............................................................................................................................29 SUMMARY OUTLINE OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE OUTDOOR ENVIRONMENT..........29 Mean Temperature Will Rise ..............................................................................................................29 Humidity and Drought Conditions Will Change.................................................................................29 Heat Waves Will Be More Frequent, More Intense, and Last Longer................................................30 Heavy Precipitation Events Will Increase in Intensity .......................................................................30 Storms Will Likely Become More Intense ...........................................................................................30 Sea Level Will Rise..............................................................................................................................31 Forest and Grass Fires Will Be More Frequent and More Widespread ............................................31 Pathogenic and Allergenic Diseases May Increase with the Potential for Mass Outbreaks..............32 Outdoor Air Quality Will Worsen .......................................................................................................32 Infrastructure Will Be Damaged and Adaptation Made Difficult.......................................................32 CHAPTER 3: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INDOOR ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH .................................................................................33 CHAPTER OVERVIEW ..............................................................................................................................33 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INDOOR TEMPERATURE AND OUTDOOR AIR VENTILATION...........33 Overview .............................................................................................................................................33 The Importance of Temperature Control for Good Indoor Environmental Quality ...........................33 The Impact of Heat Waves on Indoor Environments ..........................................................................34 Recommended Public Health Responses to Heat Waves ....................................................................35 Ability to Satisfy Increased Demand for Air Conditioning May Be Severely Constrained.................36 The Shift from Heating to Air Conditioning Increases Greenhouse Gas Emissions ..........................38 iii Pressures for Reduced Ventilation to Reduce Energy Use are Likely ................................................38 Indoor Chemistry Effects from Outdoor Ozone ..................................................................................41 Moisture-Related Impacts on Indoor Environments from Climate Change .......................................45 Ecological Shifts, Disease Vectors, Pests, and Increased Occupant Vulnerability to Indoor Environmental Conditions ..................................................................................................................46 Implications.........................................................................................................................................48 CHAPTER 4: PUBLIC HEALTH COST OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESULTING FROM CHANGES IN INDOOR ENVIRONMENTS........................................................................................49 OVERVIEW...............................................................................................................................................49 PURPOSE OF A QUANTITATIVE ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT .......................................................................49 METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................................................49 Time Frame.........................................................................................................................................49 Discounting.........................................................................................................................................49 ESTIMATING BASELINE PUBLIC HEALTH COSTS OF CURRENT INDOOR ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY CONDITIONS ............................................................................................................................................50 Considerations Related to Environmental Tobacco Smoke and Radon..............................................50 Baseline Cost Categories....................................................................................................................51 BASELINE PUBLIC HEALTH COSTS FROM ETS EXPOSURE .....................................................................51 Baseline Rates of Mortality from ETS Exposure.................................................................................51 Baseline Public Health Cost of Mortality from ETS Exposure...........................................................52 BASELINE PUBLIC HEALTH COST OF MORBIDITY FROM ETS EXPOSURE ..............................................52 BASELINE PUBLIC HEALTH COSTS OF HEAT WAVES .............................................................................53 BASELINE PUBLIC HEALTH COST OF SICK BUILDING SYNDROME, HEAT WAVES, ALLERGIES AND ASTHMA, AND COMMUNICABLE RESPIRATORY ILLNESS .......................................................................53 Sick Building Syndrome ......................................................................................................................54 Allergies and Asthma ..........................................................................................................................54 Communicable Respiratory Illness .....................................................................................................54 PUBLIC HEALTH COST IMPACT CATEGORIES .........................................................................................55 Consolidated Cost Impact Categories ................................................................................................55 Level of Impact....................................................................................................................................56 Estimates of Public Health Costs from Climate Change Impact on Indoor Environments ...............59 CHAPTER 5: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS...............................................................................69 OVERVIEW...............................................................................................................................................69 WARMER TEMPERATURES ......................................................................................................................69