2020/8/25 Decision Support Tool for Disaster Management in the Case of Strong Earthquakes Decision Support Tool for Disaster Management in the Case of Strong Earthquakes Chen Yong*, Chen Q.F.*, Frolova N.**, Larionov V.***, Nikolaev A.**, Pejcoch J.****, Suchshev S.*****, A.N. Ugarov***** * China Seismological Burea, 100036, Beijing, China, e-mail: [email protected] ** Seismological Center of IGE, Russian Academy of Sciences, Nikoloyamskaya str. 51, Moscow 109004, Russia, e-mail: [email protected] *** All Russian Scientific Research Institute on Civil Defense and Emergency Problems, Davydkovskaya str. 7, Moscow 121352, Russia, e-mail: [email protected] **** T-SOFT s.r.o., Novodvorska 1010/14, 142 01 PRAHA, Czech Republic, e-mail: [email protected] ***** Extreme Situations Research Center, Yunykh Lenintsev str, Moscow, Russia, e-mail: [email protected] Abstract The paper provides a description of the Web Based Decision Support Tool "WaveLet" for expected damage and loss assessment, as well as for the identification of effective response measures to strong earthquakes. This System takes advantages of GIS "Extremum", "GloSeisRisk" and "EIG/GEM Infobook". The "WaveLet" System development is supported by the World Agency on Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction. Keywords: Web based decision support tool; possible damage extent; seismic and complex risk; expected social and economic losses due to strong earthquakes; effective response measures; geographical information system 1. Introduction Strong earthquakes and secondary processes result in catastrophic human suffering, loss of property and other negative consequences. Over 1.6 million people have died in earthquakes during the 20th century. Analysis of natural emergencies including earthquakes occurring all over the world during the last 5 years show that these types of emergencies are growing at an average rate of about 5% per year. The recent disasters in El Salvador and India have reaffirmed the urgency and importance of expected loss assessment due to strong earthquakes, and have shown once again that a decision support tool is necessary, which allows the possible consequences to be estimated before and just after the event. The goal may be achieved by two ways. The first one is to provide all decision makers with their own tool for consequences simulation and risk assessment. The second variant is to develop a web based tool, which may be accessible to all interested decision makers on the regional or global level. The "Extremum" System is an example of the second type of tool. Its operation over 10 years as been as a local system (1990 - 1997) and as a web-based system (1998 -2000). It was developed by joint efforts of Extreme Situations Research Center Ltd. and organizations belonging to the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations, Russian Academy of Sciences, which are combined on an informational level into the Russian Agency of Monitoring and Forecast of Emergencies. In 1999 - 2000, the System was advanced within the framework of EUR-OPA EDRIM ("Electronic Discussions in Risk Managements") Program. The System is based on the application of new information technologies. The System may be utilized for loss and risk assessment by registered end-users. The end-user may identify the scenario event that meet specified conditions. The dialogue between the end-user and the System is realized by means of the Internet. The System is now used in order to provide operative information on damage and casualties assessment of strong earthquakes all over the world: by the Euro-Mediterranean Centres of EUR-OPA Major Hazards Agreement by specific national institutions appointed by national authorities by the Executive Secretariat of the Agreement In order to increase the accuracy and reliability of loss and risk assessment with the GIS "Extremum" application, it is proposed that additional expert block be developed. Within the block the estimations of possible consequences obtained at least by two independent approaches are analyzed and an expert decision is taken. There are plans to make use of distributed systems' advantages in order to access reliable information about seismic and collateral hazards, population distribution, human-made environment and other information. The development of the advanced System was started under the umbrella of the World Agency of Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction. 2. Web Based Decision Support Tool "Extremum" https://www.adrc.asia/publications/Venten/HP/Paper(Frolova).htm 1/8 2020/8/25 Decision Support Tool for Disaster Management in the Case of Strong Earthquakes According to the request of EUR-OPA, one of the end-users, the System is now used in automatic mode. It allows: Reading with any pre-setting periodicity the operative information about parameters of strong earthquakes (coordinates, origin time, magnitude, depth) from WEB sites of Seismic Surveys of the world, such as National Seismic Information Center of USA (NEIC), European Mediterranean Seismological Center (EMSC, France), Geophysical Survey of Russian Academy of Sciences (Obninsk, Russia). Computing the damage extent, possible social and economic losses due to earthquakes, and identifying the effective response measures. Exporting the results to the Web site of the Agency on Monitoring and Forecast of Emergency Situations. The computation time performance is 10 min. after receiving alert data about a strong event. The response scenario may be prepared within 1.5-2 hours after a strong earthquake in any country; the average error in social losses assessment is 60 %. The example of the System application for losses assessment due to the August 17, 1999 in Turkey showed high efficiency (Fig. 1). Table 1. Possible losses assessment due to the August 17, 1999 earthquake in Turkey Computed values No Name NEIC, Obninsk, Real data Error, in percent EMSC 36,630 -48,860 40 - 30 persons 6,690 - 17,340 1 Total losses 61,080 persons* 90 - 72 persons 57,880 - 71,190 5.3 - 16 persons 5,410 - 22,340 68 - 30 persons 2 Fatalities 510 -3,930 persons 17,127 persons* 97 - 77 9,760 - 34,910 43 - 103 persons 26,520 - 31,220 39 - 29 persons 6,180 - 13,410 3 Injured 43,953 persons* 86 - 70 persons 36,280 - 48,120 17 - 9 persons 138,190 -155,110 4 Homeless 150,000 persons 4 - 8 persons Total number of damaged 244,500 5 55 % - buildings buildings* 6 Number of buildings with d = 5 15 % 77,300 buildings* - The ratio of buildings with d = 7 5 to the total number of 27 % 32 % 5 damaged buildings (in %) *)Source: Relief Web OCHA - Turkey: Earthquake Situation Report No. 24 Table 1 shows that a more reliable estimation of possible consequences was made with NEIC alert data usage. The maximum errors in fatalities computations may exceed 100%. The total losses and number of injured, as well as the number of buildings which suffered different damage, are the most reliably forecast. At least one Survey gave the input data, which allows to estimate possible losses with error in range of 20-100%. The task of the expert is to choose the most reliable survey for the area under consideration. The accuracy of possible damage and losses assessment depends on the reliability of information about existing building stock in the stricken area. In order to identify the data on existing buildings stock, the high-resolution space images application is proposed. The possibility of loading the high resolution space images of the striсken areas into the system for operative (real time) losses assessment was analysed. Development proceeded for a procedure of space image decoding, which allows in a short-time interval to update the information about existing building stock, as well as distribution of buildings with different number of stories. At present the procedure allows to estimate the vulnerability of different classes of buildings with high https://www.adrc.asia/publications/Venten/HP/Paper(Frolova).htm 2/8 2020/8/25 Decision Support Tool for Disaster Management in the Case of Strong Earthquakes probability. If a building's size is 12 meters (6 pixels), its vulnerability class may be determined with probability = 0.8 (Fig. 2). The System's conceptual framework, its databases on cartographic information, population distribution, data on existing buildings' stock inventory, on natural and technological hazards, as well as mathematical models are described in (Chen Yong et al., 2001; Larionov et al., 1992; Larionov et al., 1993; Shojgu et al., 1992; Larionov, 1999; Larionov et al., 2000; Shakhramanian et al., 2000a; Shakhramanian et al., 2000b). Its database includes the information massifs (IM), which are combined into four groups. The first IM group allows one to describe in details the space under study. This group contains the digital topographic data. As the accuracy, completeness and reliability of this data is concerned, they correspond to the standards for the scales of maps. M. 1 : 5 000 000; 1 : 1 000 000; 1 : 100 000; 1 : 10 000, 1: 2 000. Small-scaled maps give general information about the regional topography. Large-scaled maps allow the structure of cities and towns to be described. The second IM group is assigned to describe seismic hazards. It contains catalogs and the information from seismic zonation maps of different scale (review, detailed and micro-zonation). The data forms the set of thematic maps, tables, networks and lists. The third IM group provides the description of the different elements at risk: population, buildings and structures, lifeline systems, hazardous facilities, et al. The information about buildings may be detailed (type of structure, materials, date of construction, height and so on) and generalized--for instance, the distribution of buildings characterized by different vulnerability classes within the city districts. The information about the population distribution in the buildings and city districts within 24 hours is also included. The fourth IM group combines the parameters of mathematical models for population distribution, building damage distribution, casualties and fatalities, for rescue team operations and others.