FINAL REPORT December 4, 2017 FINAL REPORT Climate Adaptation Plan Contents List of Appendices .................................................................................iv Project Team ............................................................................................v Message from the City Manager .........................................................v Sarasota City Commission ....................................................................vi Key Terms ..............................................................................................viii Acronyms ................................................................................................ix Introduction ............................................................. 1 Regional Landscape ................................................................................2 Past, Present, and Future Climate Change ........................................................... 4 Infrastructure Vulnerability Study .......................................................5 STEP 1 – Identify Climate Projections .............. 7 Climate Science .......................................................................................8 Sea Level Rise ................................................................................................................. 8 Observational Sea Level Rise – Global ..............................................................................................9 Observational Sea Level Rise – Local ...............................................................................................9 Storm Surge and Extreme Storms ........................................................................11 Extreme Precipitation and Drought .....................................................................11 Extreme Heat ...............................................................................................................12 Urban Heat Islands ...................................................................................................................................14 Climate Tools and Methodologies .....................15 Sea Level Rise ........................................................................................16 Storm Surge ...........................................................................................18 Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) ............................18 Extreme Precipitation ..........................................................................19 Extreme Heat ........................................................................................19 STEP 2 – Infrastructure Inventory ..................21 Infrastructure Inventory ......................................................................22 Data Collection ...........................................................................................................22 STEP 3 – Vulnerability Assessment .................23 Sensitivity ...............................................................................................25 Adaptive Capacity .................................................................................25 STEP 4 – Prioritize Vulnerabilities ...................26 Likelihood Analysis ...............................................................................27 Sea Level Rise (SLR) 2050 .........................................................................................27 Storm Surge Plus SLR (2050) ..................................................................................28 Extreme Precipitation ................................................................................................28 Extreme Heat ...............................................................................................................29 Consequence Analysis ..............................................................................................29 i Photo | Sherri Swanson Photo FINAL REPORT Climate Adaptation Plan Results .....................................................................................................30 Prioritized Vulnerabilities: Transportation .....................................................31 Prioritized Vulnerabilities: Stormwater ...........................................................33 Prioritized Vulnerabilities: Water Supply .......................................................36 Prioritized Vulnerabilities: Wastewater ...........................................................38 Prioritized Vulnerabilities: Public Lands .........................................................40 Prioritized Vulnerabilities: Critical Buildings.................................................43 STEP 5 – Identify Adaptation Strategies .........44 Adaptation Strategies: Transportation .............................................................46 Transportation Vulnerabilities .......................................................................................... 46 Adaptation Strategies: Stormwater ...................................................................52 Stormwater Vulnerabilities ................................................................................................. 52 Adaptation Strategies: Water Supply ...............................................................56 Water Vulnerabilities.............................................................................................................. 56 Adaptation Strategies: Wastewater ...................................................................58 Wastewater Vulnerabilities ................................................................................................. 58 Adaptation Strategies: Public Lands .................................................................61 Public Lands Vulnerabilities ............................................................................................... 61 Adaptation Strategies: Critical Buildings.........................................................69 Critical Buildings Vulnerabilities ...................................................................................... 69 STEP 6 – Adaption Plan ....................................71 Recommendations ...............................................................................73 References ..............................................................74 ii Photo | Andrew Swanson | Andrew Photo FINAL REPORT Climate Adaptation Plan List of Figures Exhibit 1: Global Distribution of Atmospheric CO2 ..........................................................4 Exhibit 2: Global Temperature Changes (1880-2000) ....................................................5 Exhibit 3: Vulnerability Assessment and Climate Adaptation Plan Process ..............................................................................................................................6 Exhibit 4: Synopsis of Potential Changes in Climate Variables ..................................8 Exhibit 5: Monthly Mean Sea Level Trend for St. Petersburg, FL Tide Gauge - 1900 to present .........................................................................................9 Exhibit 6: Relative Sea Level Change Scenarios .............................................................. 10 Exhibit 7: Percentage of Extreme 1-day (24-hour) Rainfall Events Annually in the SE U.S. .......................................................................................... 12 Exhibit 8: Average Annual Temperature for POR 1965-2014 (station 5 miles ESE of Bradenton, FL)............................................................ 13 Exhibit 9: Florida Climate Center Temperature Records ............................................ 13 Exhibit 10: Sea Level Rise ........................................................................................................... 17 Exhibit 11: City of Sarasota Watersheds ............................................................................. 19 Exhibit 12: Vulnerability Assessment Graph ..................................................................... 30 Exhibit 13: Transportation Vulnerability Prioritization ................................................. 31 Exhibit 14: Stormwater Vulnerability Prioritization ....................................................... 33 Exhibit 15: Water Supply Vulnerability Prioritization ................................................... 36 Exhibit 16: Wastewater Vulnerability Prioritization ....................................................... 38 Exhibit 17: Public Lands Vulnerability Prioritization ..................................................... 40 Exhibit 18: Critical Buildings Vulnerability Prioritization ............................................. 43 List of Maps Transportation Prioritization Map ......................................................................................... 32 Stormwater Prioritization Map................................................................................................ 34 Water Supply Prioritization Map ........................................................................................... 37 Wastewater Prioritization Map ............................................................................................... 39 Public Lands Prioritization Map ............................................................................................. 41 iii Photo | Sherri Swanson Photo FINAL REPORT Climate Adaptation Plan List of Tables Table 1: Infrastructure Inventory ...........................................................................................