UP-TO-THE-MINUTE MARKET REPORT: MARKET AND SUBMISSION TRENDS IN CHILDREN’S PUBLISHING Prepared for SCBWI Summer Spectacular – August 1, 2020 by Deborah Halverson A snapshot of the current acquisitions environment in children’s publishing, including the effects of the pandemic on market trends and submission and acquisitions trends in publishing houses and literary agencies. reating a snapshot of an industry as rich as children’s publishing is always an ambitious task. Doing so during a pandemic and a major C national cultural movement feels Herculean. Nonetheless, it is a task worthy of attempt. Writers and illustrators create books with publication in mind, if not centrally so, and understanding the marketplace and industry in which they strive for publication is important. I interviewed a dozen professionals across the industry—agents and editors, plus experts in marketing, supply chain, and statistical analysis. All told me, in one form or another, that the current health of our industry is “a mixed bag,” and that the industry will never be the same, in ways both good and bad. To a person, they all believe this industry—which has proven resilient through difficult times as recently as 2008’s Great Recession, and with its audience of young people turning to books for comfort, inspiration, entertainment, and enlightenment—is as essential as ever. This Market Re- port looks at that mixed bag, humbly offering a snapshot of where we are now, four-and-a-half months into the U.S.’s engagement with the pandemic. There will be shades of our pre-pandemic 2019 industry herein, and informed musings about an admittedly unpredictable future. May exploring what we know—and what we don’t—prove helpful to authors and illustrators. What we do know: sales for juvenile nonfiction books jumped 29% for the first half of this year over the same period in 2019, and • Children’s books are selling. In fact, with the exception juvenile fiction rose 7.1%. The Association of American of political blockbusters for adult readers, the children’s Publishers tells us Children’s/YA audiobook sales, which books segment is outperforming every other trade have increased every month since 2012, saw 24.7% revenue books segment. That has been the trend for years. When growth in the first five months of 2020. E-book revenue bookstores closed nationwide in March, expectations for across all categories rose 7.3%, despite starting the year book sales darkened. Yet very quickly, consumers showed with decreasing sales as has been the case for years. their interest in books for recreation and to supplement Libraries saw record e-book loans, with Overdrive reporting distance-learning. According to NPD BookScan, print unit in June that young adult nonfiction e-book checkouts rose 122% in North America, and juvenile fiction rose 93%. want to sink into before final decision, focus can still be Libraries purchased digital content to meet the demand, an issue. For that reason, they tell me, a slow response taking advantage of digital distributors’ discounting to a submission can be a sign of thoughtful interest and publishers easing circulation rules and creating during these times. friendlier purchasing terms. Agents, too, have their eyes on the future and are But here we see that “mixed bag” at play, because signing new clients. The early days of the pandemic statistics don’t paint as clear a picture as we’d like. had them navigating the challenging space between Because of bookstore closures, unsold books haven’t editors and creators when books were being postponed been returned to publishers as expected. As of mid-July, and promotional events cancelled or moved online. I’m industry-wide returns are 24.8% below 2019, according told acceptance has settled in on those points as it’s to the AAP. So, sales numbers will likely need downward become clear this pandemic is a long-haul challenge. adjustment. Another note: The high nonfiction sales Regarding submissions, agents tell me they are reported in children’s publishing include activity books receiving submissions at a normal pace, replying with and educational support books that aren’t the primary varying speeds depending on the fluctuating pressures focus of SCBWI members, who are usually creating trade of this time. books about, for example, STEM topics, or biographies. Trade books can be a part of educational support, of What are editors and agents receiving, looking course. Hence the murkiness. So, what trade books are for, and signing up? I’m told agents are receiving selling? Industry publications mention books about many books about the pandemic, but there isn’t a inclusivity, anti-racism, and social justice, like the corresponding interest from editors. Both editors and Sesame Street book We’re Different, We’re the Same, and agents say they’re looking more for books that build books about kindness and mindfulness, like Deborah on lessons learned/universal themes from this time, Underwood’s picture book Outside In, about the many rather than something like a sweet board book about ways nature affects our everyday lives, even when coping with stay-at-home orders. The reasoning is that we’re stuck inside. Dav Pilkey’s silly-fun book Dog Man: although there will be a few books about the pandemic, Fetch-22 has been in high demand, as have classics and possibly from established authors and illustrators books in the social situations/family/health category. positioned to get a book produced on a quick schedule, The new Hunger Games entry, The Ballad of Songbirds the marketplace doesn’t have interest in more than a and Snakes, released in May to 500,000+ first-week few, at least right now. I asked if characters should be sales. It’s been a time for sure things and books that wearing masks in contemporary fiction, but the editors make readers feel good, informed, and removed from recommended against that. They warn against dating hard realities. a book, as we don’t know what the mask situation will be with sports and school and social interactions a few • Agents are signing new clients and submitting to years from now, when these books will publish. Now, editors, and editors are acquiring. Editors report more than ever, there’s no predicting trends, so they working toward an undefinable “new normal,” acquiring look for books with fresh takes on universal themes of today for lists two or three years in our future. “People growing up, just like before the pandemic. will still be buying books after the pandemic,” one agent told me, echoing my other sources as well In picture books, editors and agents wish for stories as experts opining in industry articles. Publishers’ that make readers laugh and feel good, and timeless acquisition processes are functioning well via the work- stories that offer a break from the real world. They from-home model, with deals being made and advances remain interested in books about inclusivity, kindness, consistent with pre-pandemic deals. and representation. Examples include the picture books Be Kind, written by Pat Zietlow Miller and illustrated That mixed bag again: Some editors are acquiring at by Jen Hill, and All Are Welcome, written by Alexandra normal pace or even more quickly than pre-pandemic, Penfold and illustrated by Suzanne Kaufman. Here’s while others are slower in responding to queries from the rub: While books about kindness and mindfulness agents and authors/illustrators. My sources spoke of continue to sell well, editors are looking for books the challenge of working through quarantine and family of that same spirit and feel, but which deal with logistics, health and financial stresses, and social something new. Kindness has been talked about in a lot activism. Agents and editors alike talked about “easy” of books, but what else? What other values should we be projects being acquired faster in the early days of the celebrating for kids but haven’t covered well? pandemic, meaning shorter projects like picture books, or projects immediately identified as wants. Months on, Regarding representation in children’s publishing, that imbalance seems to be fading away, with longer one agent told me, “A lot of projects being sold right projects now getting more attention. For those longer now are more diverse titles.” That includes cultural and projects, and projects that editors and agents really racial diversity, as well as books expanding gender and abilities representation, by authors and illustrators regional chapter meetings were a strong submissions creating from their authentic experiences. During the source for agents and for editors, who, as guest ongoing Black Lives Matter protests, many agencies speakers, usually extended submission invitations to and editors have put out calls on social media and their attendees. The transition to digital events may help websites for Own Voices submissions. Several agents that connection regain strength. representing illustrators tell me editors are increasingly approaching them seeking illustrators for already- As the industry pivots to an uncertain future with ongoing acquired manuscripts by people of color, which offers a closures of stores, schools, and libraries, three important glimpse into the pipeline. factors will greatly determine the near- and long-term acquisitions environment in children’s publishing: Middle grade continues to be a vibrant market space, with a broad range of topics, themes, and genres. • How brick-and-mortar bookstores fare. Barnes & Agents say editors are specifically asking them for Noble was on shaky ground before the pandemic, hoping family and friendship books, and agents and editors for growth after being purchased mid-2019. When the alike are on the lookout for great graphic novels. Middle pandemic hit, the 600-store chain furloughed much grade is the most published space right now for graphic of its staff.