Supporting Evidence - Key facts and figures 10 May 2017 Welsh Government 1 | P a g e 2 | P a g e Index Page Agriculture Key Income and profitability Diversification and household income Sector Specific Focus Dairy Red Meat Sheep Beef Economics/Finance Common Agricultural Policy Pillar 1 Pillar 2 Wider benefits to Wales Delivered by Agri-sector Environment and Service Delivery Culture and the Welsh Language Food and Drink Food and Farming ‘Priority Sector’ Food and Drink Manufacturing Meat and Meat Products Sub Sector Bakery Sub Sector Drinks Sub Sector Dairy and Eggs Sub Sector Grains and Starch Sub Sector Prepared Animal Feeds Sub Sector Fruit, Vegetables and Plants Sub Sector Seafood Sub Sector Oils and Fats Sub Sector Other Food Products Sub Sector Food and Drink Wholesale Sub Sector Food and Drink Retail Sub Sector Catering Sub Sector Animal Health and Welfare Framework Fisheries and Seafood Forestry and Timber Natural Resources Waste management Water Framework Directive Future Trends Report –Land Use and Natural Resources Access to Research and Development Resources Annexes 3 | P a g e EU Exit Evidence and Scenarios Working Group - Key facts and figures Introduction This document has been pulled together as a working document to support discussions and the work of the EU Exit Evidence and Scenarios Working Group. It is acknowledged that there are some gaps in this first iteration. It will be part of the role of this Working Group to identify where we can access further supporting evidence and data to support the EU Exit work. EU Stakeholder Response Workshops 2016 In July 2016, following the UK’s vote to leave the European Union, stakeholders connected to the Environment and Rural Affairs (ERA) portfolio met for a round table meeting at the Royal Welsh Show. At this discussion, it was agreed that workshops should be held to look in more detail at the implications of Brexit – in particular the key risks, opportunities, and impact on the way forward – for the ERA portfolio. As a consequence, Welsh Government organised a series of stakeholder workshops and – at the request of the roundtable delegates – commissioned independent consultants1 to facilitate the sessions and synthesise and report on the findings. The Summary report is available at Annex 2. Food and Farming In the UK, Food and Drink manufacturing represents one sixth of UK manufacturing GVA and is the UK’s biggest manufacture sector by GVA. Food and Farming became one of the nine priority sectors in Wales in 2011. 'The Welsh Food and Drink Skills Project', conducted in collaboration with the Sector Skills Councils and industry partners, indicates that the food and drink supply chain is important to the Welsh economy in terms of employment, income and the contribution it makes to tourism. The research estimates that the supply chain makes up approximately 18% of the total Welsh workforce, and generated over £6 billion in 2010, performing well in a challenging economic climate. Key figures: The GVA for Wales’ Food and Drink Manufacturing in 2014 was £1,355m, 2% of Wales’ GVA. The GVA for Wales’ Agriculture in 2015 was £385m, 0.7% of Wales GVA. Gross Value Added from agriculture decreased by around £51 million (or 13%) to £355 million in 2016. The value of agricultural gross output is estimated to have decreased by around £33 million (or 2%) between 2015 and 2016, to £1,447 million. 1 Miller Research (UK) Ltd. and Brook Lyndhurst Ltd. 4 | P a g e Total Income from Farming in Wales is estimated to have decreased to £157 million in 2016, a decline of around £20 million (or 12%). 160,000 were employed in 2014 in Wales’ post farm-gate food chain – manufacturing, wholesale, retail and catering. 58,000 were employed in agriculture in Wales in 2015, some 4.1% of employment. There are 26,785 local business units in the food and drink supply chain. Wales’ natural resources provide us with many economic, social and cultural benefits. For example: • 951 million litres of drinking water per day • 1.5 million tonnes of green timber a year, making construction easier and cheaper • £499.3 million from woodlands each year • 14 million tonnes of aggregates per year, for construction and other uses • 8,919 gigawatt hours of energy from renewable sources, and rising, creating a renewable energy industry that employs 2,000 people • 410 million tonnes of carbon stored in soil to soak up emissions and protect against climate change • £2,870 million in tourism to Wales • 28% of adults meeting the recommended level of physical activity through outdoor pursuits • £18.2 million in health benefits to people from walking the Wales Coast Path • £840 million and 30,000 jobs from the historic environment sector 5 | P a g e Agriculture Farming has a higher profile within Wales’ economy than is the case for the UK as a whole: % UK % Wales as a % of UK population: 5 Wales as a % of UK land mass 9 % of land use in agriculture 78 70 % of employment in agriculture 4.1 1.4 GVA for agriculture 0.7 0.6 Wales as a % of UK’s permanent pasture 18 Wales as a % of UK’s under 5 years grassland 13 Wales as a % of UK’s farm woodland 7 Wales sheep flock as a % of the UK’s 29 Welsh milk production as a % (on average) of milk production 12 Wales dairy herd as a % of the UK’s 13 Wales beef herd as a % of the UK’s 11 The following table gives a broad indication of how the types of farming in Wales compare with the UK as a whole. People, land and agriculture in Wales and the UK, 2015 Wales UK Wales share General All land ('000 ha) 2,100 24,400 9% All people ('000) 3,100 64,600 5% Land on farms ('000 ha) Permanent pasture 1,048 6,078 17% Rough grazing 257 3,801 7% Grass under 5 years 153 1,167 13% Crops and hort 87 4,893 2% Woodland and other 87 1,290 7% Total 1,631 17,229 9% Livestock ('000 head) Sheep 9,739 33,337 29% Cattle 1,103 9,919 11% of which dairy cows 290 2,281 13% of which beef cows 214 1,957 11% Poultry 8,997 167,579 5% Pigs 28 4,739 1% Source: Farming Facts and Figures, 2016 (page 5) 6 | P a g e 1. Key income and profitability figures are: Wales UK Wales as £m £m % of UK Gross agricultural output 1,495 23,852 6.26 GVA 385 8,495 4.53 Total income from farming 175 3,769 4.64 The average income figures are highly variable from year to year – as the chart shows for the dairy farms. Partly this reflects the true year on year variation but part is also because the estimates are based on a sample of 500 farms. Another issue is that using the average income can conceal the variation between farms in a farm type. Chart 2 shows the share of farms within a farm type having various levels of Farm Business Income. This analysis is only currently available for the 2014-15 financial year. 7 | P a g e Share of farms by Farm Business Income on a farm and farm type, 2014-15 Farm income Lowland (£'000) Dairy LFA grazing grazing All farms Loss 11% 20% 17% 19% 0 to 10 8% 17% 15% 15% 10 to 25 6% 27% 22% 21% 25 to 50 19% 20% 32% 21% 50 to 75 11% 10% 9% 10% Over 75 45% 7% 5% 14% All farms 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 80% 70% Over 75 60% 50 to 75 50% 25 to 50 40% 10 to 25 30% 0 to 10 20% Loss 10% 0% Dairy LFA grazing Lowland grazing All farms Source: estimates from Farm Business Survey for financial year 2014-15 The key thing to note is that all the farm types have farms in each of the income bands, irrespective of the average income for the farm type as a group. Aggregate Agricultural Account, 2015 Summary financial information about farming in Wales and the UK. Welsh results published on the WG site. UK figures are from “Agriculture in the UK” on Defra site. Income data generally from UK level production data, that is allocated back to UK countries (with the usual problems of identifying “Welsh” produce). Costs are taken from Farm Business Survey estimates. Results split into three tables – an overview, detail on income sources and detail on costs. The dominant agricultural sub-sectors are dairy, sheep and beef. 8 | P a g e Diversification and farm household income Returns from agricultural activity may not be the only source of income for a farm business or for a farm household. The business may receive money from, for example, renting out unused buildings for non- agricultural purposes or from a range of other diversified activities. Identifying such additional activities is not straightforward. The money may or may not pass through the farm business accounts. If the activity takes place as a separate business then there is a good chance that it will not be included data collected by the Farm Business Survey (although the collectors make efforts to be comprehensive). Similarly in the household of a farmer other household members may have jobs unrelated to the farm. There can also be other income from pensions, benefits, investments and so on that are not part of the farm business. The diversified activities have been studied in a release from Farm Business Survey data up to 2013- 14.