STATISTICS « STATISTICS Economic Surveys and Data Analysis Economic Surveys and Data Analysis CIRET Conference Proceedings, Paris 2000 Economic CIRET, the Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys is a global forum for leading economists and institutions that conduct and analyse business and consumer surveys. The survey data provides up-to-date information often unavailable from Surveys and official statistics including plans, assessments and expectations of businesses and consumers. Data Analysis CIRET promotes the exchange of theoretical and operational knowledge of all aspects of economic cycle research. CIRET holds international conferences every other year and maintains an Internet site at www.ciret.org CIRET Conference The 25th CIRET Conference, entitled "Business Surveys and Empirical Analysis of Economic and Social Survey Data" was hosted by OECD and INSEE in Paris, France in 2000. Proceedings, Paris 2000 This volume contains selected papers presented at the conference. Conference Proceedings of former CIRET Conferences were published by Ashgate CIRET Conference Proceedings, Paris 2000 Proceedings, CIRET Conference (see www.ashgate.com). OECD's books, periodicals and statistical databases are now available via www.SourceOECD.org, our online library. This book is available to subscribers to the following SourceOECD themes: General Economics and Future Studies Ask your librarian for more details of how to access OECD books on line, or write to us at [email protected] www.oecd.org ISBN 92-64-09902-6 30 2002 11 1 P -:HSTCQE=U^^UW^: Economic Surveys and Data Analysis CIRET Conference Proceedings, Paris 2000 Edited by Günter Poser in co-operation with Daniel Bloesch ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT Pursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in Paris on 14th December 1960, and which came into force on 30th September 1961, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shall promote policies designed: – to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a rising standard of living in Member countries, while maintaining financial stability, and thus to contribute to the development of the world economy; – to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as well as non-member countries in the process of economic development; and – to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non- discriminatory basis in accordance with international obligations. The original Member countries of the OECD are Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The following countries became Members subsequently through accession at the dates indicated hereafter: Japan (28th April 1964), Finland (28th January 1969), Australia (7th June 1971), New Zealand (29th May 1973), Mexico (18th May 1994), the Czech Republic (21st December 1995), Hungary (7th May 1996), Poland (22nd November 1996), Korea (12th December 1996) and the Slovak Republic (14th December 2000). The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD (Article 13 of the OECD Convention). © OECD 2002 Permission to reproduce a portion of this work for non-commercial purposes or classroom use should be obtained through the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC), 20, rue des Grands-Augustins, 75006 Paris, France, tel. (33-1) 44 07 47 70, fax (33-1) 46 34 67 19, for every country except the United States. In the United States permission should be obtained through the Copyright Clearance Center, Customer Service, (508)750-8400, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923 USA, or CCC Online: www.copyright.com. All other applications for permission to reproduce or translate all or part of this book should be made to OECD Publications, 2, rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France. Preface The Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET) held its 25th conference at the joint invitation of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE) and of the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in Paris from October 11 to October 14, 2000. As key note speaker Professor Edmond Malinvaud addressed the conference participants with his opening speech on "The Role of Business Survey Data in Macroeconomic Research and Practice". This volume contains the opening speech as well as a selection of papers that were presented at the conference. The papers cover a wide range of topics: (i) Macroeconomic analysis and forecasting, (ii) Leading indicators, (iii) Innovation and technology, (iv) Labour market analysis and consumer surveys, (v) Analysis of survey data with advanced econometric methods and (vi) Use of survey data for economic policy recommendations. On behalf of CIRET I like to thank all persons who have contributed to the success of the conference: Hélène Erkel-Rousse (INSEE) and Ronny Nilsson (OECD) and their staff were competent organizers and charming hosts. Mr. Seiichi Kondo, Deputy Secretary-General at the OECD, gave the closing speech. Petra Huth and Ruth Vognstrup at the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research (KOF) in Zurich supported the local organizers INSEE and OECD. We thank the French Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry, the French Economic Forecasting Department and the European Central Bank for sponsoring the 25th CIRET conference. We thank Jean-Jacques Vanhaelen at the National Bank of Belgium for his support in the reconstitution of CIRET as an association with legal seat in Brussels. The first general assembly of the renewed CIRET, headed by Professor Bernd Schips, new President of CIRET, was held in Paris on October 10, 2000. Finally we appreciate the endeavour of Ronny Nilsson (OECD) who made this publication possible and we thank Susanne Boehm for formating the papers. Darmstadt, October 2002 Günter Poser 3 Table of Contents List of Contributors 7 Opening Address 1 The Role of Business Survey Data in Macroeconomic Research and Practice 11 Edmond Malinvaud I Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting 2 A Comparative Study of Forecasting Performance: European Long Range Gauge vs. European Business Surveys 21 Anirvan Banerji and Philip A. Klein 3 Towards the Elaboration of Business Climate Indicators for the Italian Economy 33 Paolo Carnazza and Giuseppe Parigi 4 Compiling and Comparison of Taiwan’s Business Indicators 51 Cheng-Mount Cheng 5 General Indicators of Business Activity for Poland Based on Survey Data 61 Zbigniew Matkowski 6 Confidence Indicators and Composite Indicators 75 Ronny Nilsson II Leading Indicators 7 The OECD System of Leading Indicators: Recent Efforts to Meet Users’ Needs 107 Benoît Arnaud 8 Calculation of Composite Leading Indicators: A Comparison of Two Different Methods 123 Olivier Brunet 9 Leading Indicators of Financial Vulnerability: Demonstrated in the Case of the Asian Crisis 135 Gernot Nerb and Markus Taube 10 The Belgian Industrial Confidence Indicator: Leading Indicator of Economic Activity in the Euro Area? 153 Jean-Jacques Vanhaelen, Luc Dresse and Jan De Mulder 5 CIRET Conference Proceedings, Paris 2000 III Innovation and Technology 11 Explaining Innovative Activity in Service Industries: Micro Data Evidence for Switzerland 185 Spyros Arvanitis 12 Innovation Modes in the Swiss Service Sector: A Cluster Analysis Based on Firm-Level Data 203 Heinz Hollenstein 13 Spillover Effects and R&D-Cooperations: The Influence of Market Structure 231 Anita Wölfl IV Labour Market Analysis and Consumer Surveys 14 Exploring Unemployment in the European Union 253 Marcella Corsi 15 Centralised CATI Method in the Finnish Consumer Survey: Testing the Effects of Nonresponse 269 Pertti Kangassalo and Veijo Notkola V Analysis of Survey Data with Advanced Econometric Methods 16 Signalling Bottlenecks/Overcapacities and Low/High Dynamics 283 Marlene Amstad and Richard Etter 17 The Impact of Nonresponse Bias on the Index of Consumer Sentiment 307 Richard Curtin, Stanley Presser and Eleanor Singer 18 Quantification of Qualitative Data Using Ordered Probit Models 325 Ulrich Kaiser and Alexandra Spitz VI Use of Survey Data for Economic Policy Recommendations 19 Survey Data as a Source of Information for Policy Recommendations: A Logit Analysis 347 Elzbieta Adamowicz, Anna Gutkowska, Jacek Kotlowski and Konrad Walczyk 20 The Evolution of Expectations of Disinflation: The Case of Bulgaria 371 John A. Carlson and Neven T. Valev 6 List of Contributors Elzbieta Adamowicz SGH, Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland Marlene Amstad Economic Research, Swiss National Bank, Zurich, Switzerland Benoît Arnaud OECD Secretariat, Paris, France Spyros Arvanitis KOF, Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland Anirvan Banerji Co-Director of Research, ECRI, Economic Cycle Research Institute, New York, USA Daniel Bloesch Head of CIRET Information and Documentation Centre, KOF, Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Switzerland Olivier Brunet OECD Secretariat, Paris, France John A. Carlson Loeb Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, USA Paolo Carnazza Head of Economic Research, Confartigianato, Rome, Italy; formerly ISAE, Rome, Italy Cheng-Mount Cheng Assistant Research Fellow, TIER, Taiwan Institute of