By Ambassador Carlos Alzugaray Treto (PhD) Former Professor, University of Havana International Political Analyst Member, Editorial Board, Temas (Topics), Cuba www.temascuba.org February 2015 • The future is here. It was long overdue • Swiftness and scope. • A new stage full of potentialities & challenges. • Asymmetry and neighborliness. • Strong transcultural ties. • Difficult history. • “Good fences make good neighbors” (Frost) or “Love your neighbor; yet don’t pull down your hedge” (Franklin) • The Summit of the Americas. Where are we coming from Importance of geopolitical & economic factors. Map Historical trajectory: Spanish colony-U.S. control-Revolution. Role of the United States & the Cuban former upper classes. The Cold War Context. Radicalization. The elimination of the market & private sector. Utopian voluntarism. Achievements: Foreign policy: independence & internationalism. Social issues: education & health. The housing problem. Insufficient or failed results. Economic ups & downs Governance. Excessive role of government In sum: Economic failures & governmental excesses in the context of national & social achievements. The logic of change and transition Cuba has changed. The world too. New socialisms in China & Vietnam. Parallels. Other allies: Venezuela, Brazil, Russia. The Economy: Vicious circle of productivity & wages. Cuban economic model. Frankenstein metaphor. Insufficiencies of a bloated state socialism. Lessons learned: The market exists. Aging population & generational imperatives. Sustainability of social achievements. New paradigm: Autonomy & prosperity. Search for diversity in external economic partners. The substance of change Major economic reform w/political content. Prioritizing of economics over ideology. Productivity: unleashing of productive forces. Reduction of the State & its role in the economy & society. Prosperity and sustainability. Egalitarianism & fairness. Decentralization. Aligning costs with policies. Not living above possibilities. Serious search for self-reliance Movement towards a deliberative model of democracy. Less improvisation. Strategic projection. Mariel & Oil. Search for a new model: Socialism & the market. The many faces of change Gradual. Mentality change. A new social pact. Non-state (private) sector. Less equality, more fairness. Unstoppable relentlessness. Depth & impact on daily life. Pragmatism. Systematic strategic thinking. Gradual gaining of citizen acceptance. Immigration reform: an example. Opening: Internet & Telesur. Better external conditions: regional and global Challenges Resistance: ideology & interests. Change in mentality: the major challenge. Breaking the vicious circle of productivity vs wages. Mistakes: Avoiding them & problems. Bureaucratic opposition. Initial skepticism from the citizens. World economic crisis. Natural disasters. Hurricane Sandy. Timing & generational change. Little time. The external issue. Diversification & relations with U.S. Cuba and its environment today I Cuba and the Caribbean Cuba and the Caribbean Basin Mariel .