Urban Transition as a Result of Transport Investment: The Case Bus Rapid Transit Lahore Pakistan Muhammad Aamir Basheer Doctoral dissertation submitted to obtain the academic degrees of Doctor of Urbanism and Spatial Planning (UGent) and Doctor of Transportation Sciences (UHasselt) Supervisors Prof. Luuk Boelens, PhD* - Prof. Davy Janssens, PhD** - Prof. Robert Van der Bijl, PhD* * Department of Civil Engineering Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Ghent University ** Transportation Research Institute School of Transportation Sciences, Hasselt University June 2021 ISBN 978-94-6355-492-3 NUR 907, 945 Wettelijk depot: D/2021/10.500/40 Members of the Examination Board Chair Prof. Em. Luc Taerwe, PhD, Ghent University Other members entitled to vote Prof. Luca Bertolini, PhD, Universiteit van Amsterdam, the Netherlands Prof. Greet Deruyter, PhD, Ghent University Prof. An Neven, PhD, Hasselt University Prof. Frank Witlox, PhD, Ghent University Supervisors Prof. Luuk Boelens, PhD, Ghent University Prof. Davy Janssens, PhD, Hasselt University Prof. Robert Van der Bijl, PhD, Ghent University ACKNOWLEDGMENT All praise be to Almighty Allah (Subhaana hoo Wa Ta’ ala) who blessed me with patience, consistency, and resources to acquire the necessary skills for accomplishing this colossal task. I must thank all my promoters (Prof. Dr. Luuk Boelens, Prof. Dr. Davy JANSSENS, and Prof. Dr. Robert Van der Bijl), who extended their invaluable and untiring intellectual capabilities right from scratch to finish this work. Their immense knowledge and quality consciousness kept me on track. The research is the result of approxi- mately 3.5 years-long effort during which I faced many challenges, but encouragement and enthusiasm that I received from my promoters helped me a lot throughout this trajectory. I would also like to thank all the doctoral committee members for their valuable and constructive remarks. I would also like to thank my respected father Mr. Basheer Ahmad Tahir, my mother and all my siblings, who were always there for me. Especial thanks to my better half and daughter, for supporting me during my Ph.D. as I barely had time to spend with them. Their immense love and support helped me a lot in completing my work. I would like to share my gratitude to my AMRP colleagues for their help and emotional support throughout the course of my Ph.D. I consider myself lucky to have such supportive Ph.D. fellows. I hereby extend my exclusive appreciation to Mr. Peter Davids, Mr. Syyed Adnan Raheel Shah, and Ms. Areesha Gul for their valuable insight and unconditional support. Moreover, I would like to acknowledge support from my friends, Mr. Mashhood Arif, Mr. Ahamd Adeel, and Mr. Kahlid Javed for making this journey easy for me and helping me in every situation. Last but not the least, I would like to thank my funding institute (e.g. Higher Education Commission of Pakistan), for providing me with the opportunity to complete my studies at one of the best institutes in the world. The time I spend at Ghent University and Universiteit Hasselt was a virtuous experience for me during which I have learned advanced data collection and modeling techniques. Both institutes had played a great share in my personal development that would definitely help me in the forthcoming. Muhammad Aamir Basheer June 2021, Gent I TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgment I Table of Contents II List of Tables VI List of Figures VII Acronyms X Samenvatting XI Summary XVI 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background 2 1.1.1 The Mobility Rationale 3 1.1.2 The Urban Rationale 4 1.1.3 Economic Rationale 4 1.1.4 The Social Rationale 5 1.2 Problem Statement 5 1.3 Research Questions 6 1.4 Conceptual Framework 7 1.5 Structure of Dissertation 7 2 APPREHENDING BUS RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEMS 11 2.1 Introduction 12 2.2 World of Bus Rapid Transit System 13 2.3 Development of Bus Rapid Transit in Asia 14 2.4 Defining and categorizing Bus Rapid Transit 16 2.5 A Comparison of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Light Rail Transit (LRT) 23 2.5.1 Capital and Operational Cost 24 2.5.2 Capacity 27 2.5.3 Capital Cost vs Capacity 29 2.5.4 Ridership 30 2.5.5 Infrastructure 30 2.5.6 Service Attributes 34 2.6 Summary 37 II 3 SPACE, SYSTEM AND THEIR INTERRELATIONS TOWARDS A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 41 3.1 Introduction 42 3.2 Land-use and Transport Interaction 42 3.3 Structuralist and Post-structuralist Theories 45 3.4 Actor-network Theory 47 3.5 Actor Relational Approach 48 3.6 Summary 50 4 KEY DEFINING INDICATORS FOR URBAN TRANSITION AND TRANSPORT INVESTMENT 51 4.1 Introduction 52 4.2 Transport Investment and Travel Behavior 53 4.2.1 Data Collection and Methodology for Travel Behavior 56 4.3 Transport Investment and Urban Transformation 57 4.3.1 Data Collection and Methodology for Urban Transformation 59 4.4 Transport Investment and Economic Development 61 4.4.1 Data Collection and Methodology for Economic Development 65 4.5 Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) 67 4.6 Study Area 70 4.6.1 Bus Rapid Transit in Lahore, Pakistan 71 4.7 Summary 74 5 PARADIGMS OF URBAN GOVERNANCE SYSTEM 75 5.1 Introduction 76 5.2 Period 0: Coming out form the British Empire and Independence 79 5.3 Period 1: Struggling with the new state & Civil War 80 5.3.1 Master Plan for Greater Lahore 80 5.4 Period 2: Inception of Democracy 82 5.4.1 Housing and Physical Planning Department (H & PP) 82 5.4.2 Lahore Development Authority (LDA) 82 5.5 Period 3: Martial Law 83 5.5.1 Lahore Urban Development and Traffic Study (LUDTS), 1980 83 5.5.2 Transport Department (TD) 84 5.5.3 District Regional Transport Authority (DRTA) 85 5.5.4 Traffic Engineering and Transport Planning Agency (TEPA) 85 5.6 Period 4: Second Democratic Era 1988-1999 86 5.6.1 Comprehensive Study on Transportation System in Lahore, 1991 87 5.7 Period 5: Proclamation of Emergency 87 5.7.1 Integrated Master Plan for Lahore 88 5.7.2 Lahore Rapid Mass Transit System (LRMTS) 90 5.8 Period 6: Final Democractic Era 91 5.8.1 Lahore Transport Company (LTC) 93 5.8.2 Transport Planning Unit (TPU) 93 5.8.3 Lahore Urban Transport Master Plan-2030 93 III 5.8.4 Amendment in Integrated Master Plan for Lahore 95 5.8.5 Punjab Mass Transit Authority (PMA) 95 5.8.6 Punjab Provincial Transport Authority 96 5.9 Summary 97 6 TRAVEL BEHAVIOR TRANSITION 99 6.1 Introduction 100 6.2 Modal Split 100 6.3 Modal Shift 101 6.4 Descriptive Statistics and Model Results 103 6.4.1 Model-1 Binary logistic regression 105 6.4.2 Model-2 Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) 106 6.5 Results and Discussion 106 6.5.1 Statistical Model Application 106 6.5.2 Performance Analysis 109 6.6 Summary 111 7 URBAN TRANSFORMATION 113 7.1 Introduction 114 7.2 Land use Transformation 114 7.2.1 Station-1: Shahdara Station 114 7.2.2 Station-2: Timber Market 115 7.2.3 Station-3: Qartaba Chowk 117 7.2.4 Station-4: Shama Chowk 118 7.2.5 Station-5: Ichra 119 7.2.6 Station-6: Kalma Chowk 120 7.2.7 Station-7: Ghazi Chowk 122 7.2.8 Station-8: Chungi Amar Sidhu 123 7.2.9 Station-9: Yohanabad 124 7.2.10 Station-10: Gajjumata 125 7.3 Impact Categories (Typology) 126 7.3.1 Functional Change 126 7.3.2 Structural Change 126 7.3.3 New Development 127 7.3.4 Mix Transformation 128 7.3.5 No Change in Urban Development 129 7.4 Urban Density 129 7.5 Determinants of Land use Transformation 130 7.6 Summary 133 8 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 135 8.1 Introduction 136 8.2 Data Acquisition and Description 136 8.2.1 Property Data 136 8.2.2 Data regarding locational attributes 137 8.2.3 Descriptive Statistics 139 8.2.4 Modeling Approach 141 8.2.5 Empirical Results 142 IV 8.3 Inward Investment and Expansion of Labor Market 146 8.4 Determinants of Inward Investment 147 8.5 Interview with Real Estate Agents 151 8.6 Summary 151 9 INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS 153 9.1 Introduction 154 9.2 Role of Urban Development Authorities 154 9.3 Analysis of Building and Zoning Regulations 156 9.4 Role of Transport Agencies 160 9.4.1 Role of Lahore Transport Company (LTC) 160 9.4.2 Role of Traffic Engineering and Transport Planning Agency (TEPA) 161 9.4.3 Role of Punjab Masstransit Authority (PMA) 161 9.5 Summary 162 10 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS 163 10.1 Introduction 164 10.2 Review of Findings 164 Reference 173 Annex-A: Interview Script-Residents 193 Annex-B: Interview Script-Investors 199 Annex-C: Interview Script-Real Estate Agents 203 V LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Global overview of BRT systems by Region 14 Table 2. Comparison of Mode of Public Transport 20 Table 3. Comparison of BRT-Full and BRT-Lite 22 Table 4. Peak hour volume for various BRT systems 28 Table 5. BRT vehicle types 31 Table 6. LRT vehicle length and capacity 32 Table 7. Average peak and off-peak headway for BRT and LRT systems 36 Table 8. Impact of Rail, Metro, and LRT on Property Values 63 Table 9. Impact of TransMilenio on Property Values 64 Table 10. Definition of TOD 68 Table 11. Details of Division 77 Table 12. Colonization and Urbanization in Lahore 87 Table 13.