PROLONGED WARS A Post-Nuclear Challenge Edited by Karl P. Magyar, PhD Constantine P. Danopoulos, PhD Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Prolonged wars: the post-nuclear challenge / editors, Karl P. Magyar, Constantine P. Danopoulos. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Prolonged war. 2. Protracted conflicts (Military science) 3. Africa—History, Military. 4. Asia—History, Military. 5. World politics—1945– I. Magyar, K. P. (Karl P.) II. Danopoulos, Constantine P. (Constantine Panos) U243.P76 1994 355+.027+09045—dc20 94-32131 CIP ISBN 1-58566-056-6 First Printing October 1994 Second Printing July 2001 Disclaimer This publication was produced in the Department of Defense school environment in the interest of academic freedom and the advancement of national defense-related concepts. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the United States government. This publication has been reviewed by security and policy review authorities and is cleared for public release. ii Contents Page DISCLAIMER . ii PREFACE . v ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS . ix Essays Introduction: The Protraction and Prolongation of Wars . 1 Karl P. Magyar Iran-Iraq: Protracted Conflict, Prolonged War . 17 M. A. Shahriar Shirkhani and Constantine P. Danopoulos The Longevity of the Lebanese Civil War . 41 As’ad AbuKhalil The Arab-Israeli Wars: A Conflict of Strategic Attrition . 67 Stewart Reiser Prolonged Conflict in the Sudan . 99 Ann Mosely Lesch Fire in the Horn: Prolonged War in Ethiopia and Eritrea . 131 Cobie Harris Chad: The Apparent Permanence of Ethno-Regional Conflict . 157 Frédérick Belle Torimiro iii Page Liberia’s Conflict: Prolongation through Regional Intervention . 177 Karl P. Magyar The Rhodesian Conflict: 1966–79 . 195 Herbert M. Howe Civil War in a Fragile State—Mozambique . 225 Christopher Gregory The War Over Angola and Namibia: Factors of Prolongation . 259 Garth Shelton and Karl P. Magyar Cambodia: Prolonged War, Prolonged Peace? . 291 J. Richard Walsh El Salvador’s Prolonged Civil War . 315 Steffen W. Schmidt Nicaragua’s Prolonged Contra War . 349 Charles L. Stansifer The Prolongation of the United States in Vietnam . 371 Earl H. Tilford, Jr. The Soviet War in Afghanistan . 393 Stephen Blank Northern Ireland: A Prolonged Conflict . 421 Benjamin Kline Tentative Observations and Conclusions . 449 Constantine P. Danopoulos with Rebecca R. Ruelas iv Preface This book was conceived on the battlefields of Vietnam, where the term Vietnam became more than a geopolitical or cultural designation and came to denote a phenomenon. Vietnam is today a euphemism for getting mired in a war, for getting bogged down, for being drawn into a guagmire. Since that war, the US has not entered any military engagement without the fear of encountering another Vietnam. Nor are we alone. The Soviets met their Vietnam in Afghanistan; the South Africans experienced theirs in Angola; and the Nigerians encountered theirs in Liberia. In these cases, the problem concerned the usual expectations of a war of brief duration—the “short, sharp strike” and the realities of subsequent military involvement which came to be measured in terms of years. Histories have been written of such long wars. Indeed, Thucydides offered the first masterful account of a prolonged war, recording the vicissitudes of battles as they changed the fortunes of societies locked in a struggle which could not be anticipated when the first spear pierced the last moment of peace. Since then, there have been short wars, but they are the exception. More often, wars have bogged down and produced results hardly anticipated by the conflicts’ perpetrators. The general term for such conflicts has been protracted war. We argue, however, that wars may be long for two reasons and that these reasons are so antithetical that to call both protracted wars is analytically misleading. Some wars are at the outset planned around a protracted war strategy, usually by an insurgent force which realizes that a quick victory against a superior enemy will not be gained on a conventional battlefield. Hence, protraction is preferred by one of the sides. The other long wars are those in which both protagonists expect quick victory, but for a variety of reasons, they are frustrated in their expectations. These should be termed v prolonged wars. Understanding protracted war is easier than arriving at wide acceptance of why wars become prolonged. Because so many wars are prolonged, they leave an unanticipated wake of death and destruction. Their results rarely allow either side to claim a victory that justifies the human and material expenses incurred. Yet, apart from the histories of such wars, few analytic energies have been expended to understand the generic phenomenon. Occasionally, certain dimensions, such as the expansion of war aims or of the number of participants, have been examined, but few have studied the wider, overarching concept. In view of the prevelance of prolonged wars, surely it is time to undertake systematic analytic efforts to learn about them. Our objective is modest: to establish the distinction between protracted and prolonged wars, to present a number of case studies of prolonged wars drawn from mostly contemporary examples, and to offer the rudimentary outline of a proto theory of prolonged wars. The introductory chapter was sent to all contributors to this volume, along with a list of about 30 factors which we suggest may play a central role in prolonging wars. We encouraged the contributors to consider these factors as relevant variables but also to identify other items unique to their cases. We did not attempt to impose a straight jacket on the authors. The concluding chapter synthesizes the findings of the case studies and provides an outline of a theory of prolonged wars which subsequent researchers may use as a guide to probe the prolonged war phenomenom in greater depth. Certainly, our own speculations should be subjected to more rigorous scrutiny. However, we are confident that ultimately analysts will offer more than theory to explain prolonged wars. They may aspire to develop guidelines for anticipating in the early stages of a new conflict those conditions which lend themselves to becoming prolonged wars. Additionally, by divining the character of prolonged wars, it might be possible—and productive—to know at which stage a particular war is. This vi new knowledge should enable them to prepare for strategic responses and determine whether to terminate a conflict or face another Vietnam. This project has received the full support and official backing of Col Dennis Drew, then head of the Airpower Research Institute, Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education, a unit at Air University, Maxwell Air Force Base. We appreciate his support. Later, at the Air University Press, we benefited greatly from the support of Mr Thomas E. Mackin and Mr John E. Jordan, Jr. We are most grateful also for the hard work and professional expertise of our editor, Dr Richard Bailey. Karl P. Magyar, PhD Constantine P. Danopoulos, PhD vii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK About the Contributors As’ad AbuKhali, born in Lebanon, holds a doctor of philosophy degree from Georgetown University. He has taught at Georgetown University, Tufts University, Randolph-Macon Woman’s College, Colorado College, and George Washington University. He was scholar in residence at the Middle East Institute in 1992. He currently teaches political science at California State University, Stanislaus, and is research associate at the University of California, Berkeley. Stephen Blank has been a national security affairs specialist at the US Army Strategic Studies Institute since 1989. Previously, he was associate professor of Soviet Studies at the Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education at Air University. Dr Blank holds masters and doctoral degrees in Russian History from the University of Chicago. He has published numerous articles on Soviet military and foreign policies. Constantine P. Danopoulos teaches political science at San Jose State University. He received his doctorate from the University of Missouri, Columbia, and has written extensively on international security and civil-military relations. Dr Danopoulos has also served as associate editor of the Journal of Political and Military Sociology. Christopher Gregory was senior public affairs officer, Anglo- American Corporation of South Africa. Previously, he taught African politics in the Department of International Relations, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. His research and publications focus on southern African affairs. He currently resides in the United Kingdom. Cobie Harris received his doctor of philosophy degree in political science from the University of California, Los Angeles. Currently, he teaches African politics at San Jose State ix University. Dr Harris’ research interests include constitutional development in postcolonial East Africa. Herbert M. Howe has served as director of African studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service since 1988. Professor Howe specializes on southern African’s political and strategic affairs and has travelled extensively throughout the region. His present research focuses on civil-military relations in South Africa. Professor Howe received his doctorate and masters degrees from Harvard’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Benjamin Kline holds a master’s degree