RETAIL AND MAIN TOWN CENTRE USES STUDY: FINAL REPORT for: BASINGSTOKE & DEANE BOROUGH COUNCIL Volume 1: Main Report December 2020 Prepared by: Reviewed by: This document has been prepared and checked in accordance with the Lambert Smith Hampton Quality Assurance procedures and authorised for release. If not signed off, the document should be treated as a draft and as being private and confidential, and not for wider distribution without the written permission of Lambert Smith Hampton. Signed: ……………………………………………………………………………………………………. For and on behalf of Lambert Smith Hampton Volume 1: Main Report Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................... i 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 1 2. PLANNING POLICY CONTEXT .............................................................................. 5 3. RETAIL AND TOWN CENTRE TRENDS .............................................................. 14 4. CATCHMENT, COMPETITION & MARKET SHARES ......................................... 32 5. BASINGSTOKE TOWN CENTRE – STREET SURVEY ....................................... 45 6. TOWN CENTRE HEALTH CHECKS: METHODOLOGY ...................................... 64 7. HEALTH CHECK: BASINGSTOKE TOWN CENTRE .......................................... 69 8. HEALTH CHECK: DISTRICT & LOCAL CENTRE(S) ........................................ 107 9. RETAIL CAPACITY ASSESSMENT ................................................................... 140 10. COMMERCIAL LEISURE NEEDS ASSESSMENT ............................................ 154 11. POLICY REVIEW ................................................................................................. 185 12. FUTURE STRATEGY ........................................................................................... 196 Appendix A .................................................................................................................... 207 Volume 2: Appendices Appendix 1 Study Area Appendix 2 Basingstoke Town Centre: Diversity of Uses Appendix 3 Baseline: Population and Expenditure: Convenience Goods Appendix 4 Baseline: Convenience Goods Market Shares (including SFT) Appendix 5 Baseline: Convenience Goods Turnover (excluding SFT) Appendix 6 Baseline: Convenience Goods Capacity Appendix 7 Baseline: Population and Expenditure: Comparison Goods Appendix 8 Baseline: Comparison Goods Market Shares (including SFT) Appendix 9 Baseline: Comparison Goods Turnover (excluding SFT) Appendix 10 Baseline: Comparison Goods Capacity Appendix 11 Sensitivity Test: Population and Expenditure: Convenience Goods Appendix 12 Sensitivity Test: Convenience Goods Market Shares (including SFT) Appendix 13 Sensitivity Test: Convenience Goods Turnover (excluding SFT) Appendix 14 Sensitivity Test: Convenience Goods Capacity Appendix 15 Sensitivity Test: Population and Expenditure: Comparison Goods Appendix 16 Sensitivity Test: Comparison Goods Market Shares (including SFT) Appendix 17 Sensitivity Test: Comparison Goods Turnover (excluding SFT) Appendix 18 Sensitivity Test: Comparison Goods Capacity Appendix 19 Household Telephone Interview Survey: Methodology & Outputs Appendix 20 Basingstoke Town Centre Street Survey: Methodology & Outputs Appendix 21 Basingstoke Town Centre Pedestrian Flow-Count: Methodology & Outputs Appendices Executive Summary INTRODUCTION 1. Basingstoke & Deane Borough Council ('the Council') commissioned Lambert Smith Hampton (LSH) in November 2019 to prepare their 2020 Retail and Main Town Centre Uses Study ('the Study') to help inform both plan-making and development management decisions for the Borough. 2. It is important to note that this Study was commissioned prior to the outbreak of the COVID19 pandemic. Therefore, the baseline information and the future forecasts that have been presented in this Study are based on data that has been gathered prior to the outbreak of the pandemic. Clearly, the impact of the pandemic has, and will continue to have, a number of long-term implications for both the retail and leisure sectors. However, at this stage the full impacts are unknown along with any measures that the Government will put in place in order to respond to these challenges. 3. Against this background, we advise the Council that it may need to review and refresh this study at an appropriate time within the next two years to better understand the impacts on the Borough’s economy, its town centres and household shopping and leisure patterns. In general terms, when considering and assessing the findings of this retail and leisure assessment, it is important to understand at the outset that capacity forecasts beyond a five-year (short-term) time period should be interpreted with caution as they are subject to increasing margins of error. 4. This study has been informed by desktop research, supplemented by new market research and data gathering including: a) A telephone interview survey of some 1,103 households conducted by NEMS Market Research (NEMS) across the Borough. b) A face-to-face street interview with some 487 people survey conducted in Basingstoke Town Centre. c) A pedestrian count survey conducted across six locations across the town centre. PLANNING POLICY OVERVIEW 5. The underlying objective of both the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and Local Plan policy is to maintain and enhance the vitality and viability of town centres, and to promote new sustainable development and economic growth in town centre locations ‘first’. This policy objective is crucial as town centres are facing increasing economic challenges accelerated by the COVID19 pandemic including alternative forms of retailing; in particular online shopping and increased operational and fiscal constraints i RETAIL & LEISURE MARKET TRENDS 6. There is increasingly a need to move away from high streets and town centres as solely retail-led locations to those that offer a wider range of retail, leisure, cultural, heritage, employment, tourist and other amenities/attractions. This transition to more diverse uses that go “beyond retail” will need to be supported by a mix of new homes and apartments on the edge of and/or ‘on top of’ centres to help boost their ‘captive’ resident and working catchment populations in the most sustainable and commercially effective way. 7. The future trends and forecasts clearly point to the need for the consolidation, reduction and repurposing of physical retail space, rather than any significant expansion. Many high streets and smaller shopping centres will struggle to find the investment needed to survive. Retailers, local authorities, developers and landlords will therefore need to work together to develop sustainable visions and strategies that consider ways of reconfiguring and potentially redeveloping redundant space for alternative uses other than retail over the short, medium and long term. 8. The retail and commercial leisure markets are expected to be severely impacted during and after the lock own associated with the COVID19 pandemic. It is expected that many business that have closed will not reopen once the Government allows the full reopening of all businesses. This will particularly be the case within the comparison goods retail and food and beverage sectors where many operators were already struggling. CATCHMENT, COMPETITION & MARKET SHARES 9. The Study was underpinned by a household telephone interview survey of 1,103 households within a defined study area. The Study Area (illustrated below) comprised eleven zones, to allow for a “finer grain” analysis of shopping patterns, leisure preferences and expenditure flows. ii Study Area and Zones Convenience Goods Shopping Market Shares (including Special Forms of Trading1) 10. The headlines from the survey are as follows: a) Special Forms of Trading (SFT), which largely represents online shopping accounts for 7.2% of total study area convenience expenditure, which is lower than the UK average (14.9%). b) Basingstoke town centre is achieving a market share of 8.9% from the Study Area (Zones 1-11). The key stores with a significant market from across the Study Area share include Waitrose, Basing View (2.5%); Sainsbury's Superstore, Station Mall (2.4%); Tesco Metro, Festival Place (1.8%). The town centre stores achieve their highest market share of 27.8% from Zone 1 in which the town centre is located. c) District Centre: Brighton Hill: Achieves a market share of 7.1% from the Study Area. d) District Centre: Chineham: Achieves a market share of 9.6% from the Study Area. e) District Centre: Overton: Achieves a low market share of 0.3% from the Study Area. f) District Centre: Tadley: Attains a market share of 6.4% from the Study Area. g) District Centre: Whitchurch: Achieves a low market share of 1% from the Study Area. h) Local Centre: Kingsclere: Also achieves a low market share of 0.5% from the Study Area. i) Other Local Shops and Neighbourhood Parades: the Borough’s smaller centres have a combined market share of 7.5% in the Study Area 1 Special Forms of Trading (SFT) comprises all non-store retail sales made via the internet, mail order, stalls and markets, door-to- door and telephone sales. On-line sales by supermarkets, department stores and catalogue companies are also included in the data collected by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) iii j) Out-of-Centre Stores are achieving a total combined market share of 26% from within the wider Study Area. Of these out-of-centre