DISTRIBUTION AND ABUNDANCE OF MUSKOXEN (Ovibos moschatus) AND PEARY CARIBOU (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) ON PRINCE OF WALES, SOMERSET, AND RUSSELL ISLANDS, AUGUST 2016 MORGAN ANDERSON1 Version: 13 September 2016 1Wildlife Biologist High Arctic, Department of Environment Wildlife Research Section, Government of Nunavut Box 209 Igloolik NU X0A 0L0 STATUS REPORT 2016-06 NUNAVUT DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT WILDLIFE RESEARCH SECTION IGLOOLIK, NU i Anderson, M. 2016. Distribution and abundance of muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) and Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) on Prince of Wales, Somerset, and Russell islands, August 2016. Nunavut Department of Environment, Wildlife Research Section, Status Report 2016-06, Igloolik, NU. 27 pp. Summary We flew a survey of Prince of Wales, Somerset, Russell, Pandora, and Prescott islands (Muskox Management Zone MX-06), by Turbine Otter and Twin Otter in 82 hours between August 5 and 23, 2016, to update the population estimate for Peary caribou and muskoxen in the study area. The previous survey, in 2004, did not detect any Peary caribou, although ground surveys the following year found two groups of seven caribou on Somerset Island. The survey provided a population estimate of 3,052± SE 440 muskoxen on Prince of Wales and Somerset islands (including smaller satellite islands), with 1,569 ± SE 267 on Prince of Wales, Pandora, Prescott, and Russell islands, and 1,483 ± SE 349 muskoxen on Somerset Island. The 2016 survey results suggest a decline from the mid-1990s, but no clear decline from the 2004 estimates of 2,086 muskoxen on Prince of Wales/Russell islands (1,582-2,746, 95% CI) and 1,910 muskoxen on Somerset Island (962-3,792 95% CI; Jenkins et al. 2011). No Peary caribou were seen on the survey, but two Peary caribou were seen by hunters searching rugged terrain along the west coast of Somerset Island south of Aston Bay. The consistent lack of observations of Peary caribou suggest that the population has not recovered from the precipitous decline in the late 1980s and early 1990s. ᐅᓂᒃᑳᖅᓯᒪᓂᖏᑦ ᖁᓛᒎᓚᐅᕋᑦᑕ ᕿᙵᐃᓛᑉ, ᑰᖓᓇᔫᑉ, ᐃᓐᓂᓕᖅᓯᒪᔫᑉ, ᐊᕿᑦᑐᓕᐅᑉ ᕿᑭᖅᑕᐅᑉ, ᐊᒻᒪᓗ ᕿᑭᖅᑕᕈᓘᑉ ᓇᐅᔭᓕᐅᑉ ᖁᓛᒍᑦ (ᐅᒥᖕᒪᖕᓂᒃ ᐊᐅᓚᑎᕝᕕᐅᓂᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓂᐅᔪᖅ MX-06), ᐊᑕᐅᓯᓕᒃᑰᖅᖢᑕ 82-ᓄᑦ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᓄᑦ ᐅᑯᐊ ᐅᓪᓗᑦ ᐊᑯᓂᖏᓐᓂ ᐊᐅᒍᓯ 5 ᐊᒻᒪᓗ 23, 2016-ᒥ, ᒫᓇᓕᓴᙳᖅᑎᓐᓇᓱᐊᖅᖢᒋᑦ ᐅᓄᕐᓂᔪᑦ ᒥᒃᓴᐅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᖁᑎᒃᑑᑉ ᑐᒃᑐᖏᑦ ᐊᒻᒪᓗ ᐅᒥᖕᒪᐃᑦ ᑕᐅᕙᓂ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᕕᐅᔪᒥ. ᓯᕗᓂᐊᒍᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᐅᓚᐅᖅᓯᒪᔪᖅ, 2004-ᒥ, ᖃᐅᔨᕝᕕᐅᓚᐅᖏᑦᑐᖅ ᑐᒃᑐᑕᖃᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᖁᑎᒃᑑᑉ ᑐᒃᑐᖏᓐᓂᒃ, ᐊᕐᕌᒍᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᒪᓂᖃᒃᑯᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᒪᕐᕈᐃᓂᒃ ᑐᒃᑑᖃᑎᒌᓂᒃ 7 ᐅᓪᓗᑎᒃ ᓇᓂᓯᓚᐅᖅᓯᒪᔫᒐᓗᐊᑦ ᑕᐅᕙᓂ ᑰᒐᓇᔫᑉ ᕿᑭᖅᑕᖓᓂ. ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᕐᒥᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᐅᓄᕐᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᒥᒃᓴᐅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ 3,052± ᓂᒋᐅᓪᓗ ᑲᓇᖕᓇᐅᓪᓗ ᐊᑯᓂᖓᓂ 440-ᐅᓪᓗᑎᒃ ᐅᒥᖕᒪᑦ ᑕᐅᕙᓂ ᕿᙵᐃᓛᑉ ᐊᒻᒪᓗ ᑰᒐᓇᔫᑉ ᕿᑭᖅᑕᖓᓂ (ᐱᖃᓯᐅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᒥᑭᓐᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᑦ ᕿᑭᖅᑕᒐᓇᐃᑦ), ᐃᒪᓐᓇᐅᑎᒋᓪᓗᑎᒃ 1,569 ± ᓂᒋᐅᓪᓗ ᑲᓇᖕᓇᐅᓪᓗ ᐊᑯᓂᖓᓂ 267-ᖑᓪᓗᑎᒃ ᑕᐅᕙᓂ ᕿᙵᐃᓛᑉ, ᐊᕿᑦᑐᓕᐅᑉ ᕿᑭᖅᑕᐅᑉ, ᕿᑭᖅᑕᕈᓘᑉ ᓇᐅᔭᓕᐅᑉ, ᐊᒻᒪᓗ ᐃᓐᓂᓕᖅᓯᒪᔫᑉ ᕿᑭᖅᑕᖏᓐᓂ, ᐊᒻᒪᑦᑕᐅᖅ 1,483 ± ᓂᒋᐅᓪᓗ ᑲᓇᖕᓇᐅᓪᓗ ᐊᑯᓂᖓᓂ 349-ᖑᓪᓗᑎᒃ ᐅᒥᒻᖕᒪᑦ ᑕᐅᕙᓂ ᑰᒐᓇᔫᑉ ᕿᑭᖅᑕᖓᓂ. 2016-ᒥ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᕕᓂᕐᓂᑦ ᐱᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᓯᒪᖕᒪᑕ ᐅᓄᕈᓐᓃᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᔪᓂᒃ ᑕᐃᒪᖓᑦ 1990-ᖏᓐᓂᑦ, ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐅᓄᕈᓐᓃᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᕋᐃᓯᒪᓇᑎᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᒪᔪᒃᑯᑦ ᑕᐃᑲᖓᙵᓂᑦ 2004-ᒥᑦ ᒥᒃᓴᐅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ 2,086 ᐅᒥᖕᒪᐃᑦ ᑕᐅᕙᓂ ᕿᙵᐃᓛᑉ/ᐃᓐᓂᓕᖅᓯᒪᔫᑉᓗ ᕿᑭᖅᑕᖏᓐᓂ (1,582-2,746, 95% CI) ᐊᒻᒪ 1,910 ᐅᒥᖕᒪᐃᑦ ᑕᐅᕙᓂ ᑰᒐᓇᔫᑉ ᕿᑭᖅᑕᖓᓂ (962-3,792 95% CI; Jenkins et al. 2011). ᑕᑯᔪᖃᓚᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ ᖁᑦᑎᒃᑑᑉ ᑐᒃᑐᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᖑᓇᓱᒃᑎᓂᑦ ᕿᓂᖅᑐᓂᑦ ᒪᓃᑐᕈᔪᖕᒥ ᐅᐊᖕᓇᖅᐸᓯᐅᔪᒥ ᓯᒡᔭᖅᐸᓯᖕᒥ ᑰᒐᓇᔫᑉ ᕿᑭᑖᓂ ᓂᒋᐊᓂ Aston ᑲᖏᕐᓗᐊᓂ. ᓇᐅᑦᑎᖅᓱᖅᑕᐅᑦᑎᐊᖏᓐᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ ᖁᑎᒃᑑᑉ ᑐᒃᑐᖏᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᖏᓚᑦ ᑕᐃᒃᑯᐊ ᐅᓄᕐᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᕙᓪᓕᐊᓗᐊᖏᑦᑐᑦ ᐅᓄᕈᓐᓃᓗᐊᓚᐅᖅᓯᒪᓪᓗᑎᒃ ᑕᐅᕙᓂ 1980-ᖏᓐᓂ ᐊᒻᒪᓗ 1990 ᐱᒋᐊᕐᓂᖏᓐᓂ. ii Contents List of Figures .................................................................................................................................. iv List of Tables .................................................................................................................................... v Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 6 Study Area ....................................................................................................................................... 7 Methods ........................................................................................................................................... 8 Aerial Survey ............................................................................................................................... 8 Analysis ..................................................................................................................................... 10 Results ........................................................................................................................................... 12 Abundance Estimates ............................................................................................................... 13 Population Trends ..................................................................................................................... 14 Calf Recruitment ........................................................................................................................ 14 Group Size ................................................................................................................................ 15 Discussion ..................................................................................................................................... 15 Population Trends - Caribou ..................................................................................................... 15 Population Trends - Muskoxen ................................................................................................. 16 Muskox Distribution ................................................................................................................... 17 Calf Recruitment ........................................................................................................................ 18 Group Sizes ............................................................................................................................... 18 Management Recommendations ................................................................................................... 18 Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................................... 19 Literature Cited .............................................................................................................................. 20 Appendix 1. Prince of Wales and Somerset islands survey transects, 2016. ............................... 22 Appendix 2. Alternate population calculations. .............................................................................. 24 Jolly Method II Calculations ...................................................................................................... 24 Stratified Systematic Survey Calculations................................................................................. 24 Appendix 3. Daily flight summaries for Prince of Wales and Somerset islands survey, August 2016. .............................................................................................................................................. 26 Appendix 4. Incidental wildlife observations. ................................................................................. 27 iii List of Figures Figure 1. Major landmarks of the study area. .................................................................................. 8 Figure 2. Transects and survey strata for Prince of Wales and Somerset islands, August 5-23, 2016. Transects on Prince of Wales are 8.64 km apart and transects on Somerset are 10.16 km apart. ................................................................................................................................................ 9 Figure 3. Derivation of wing strut marks for strip boundaries, where w and w2 are calculated as described in the text, h is measured, and dotted lines indicate observer sightlines as modified from Norton-Griffiths (1978). .......................................................................................................... 10 Figure 4. Observations of muskoxen on Prince of Wales and Somerset islands, August 2016, including observations on and off transect, and on ferry flights. ................................................... 13 Figure 5. Population trends for Peary caribou on Prince of Wales, Somerset, and Russell islands, showing a catastrophic decline between 1980 and 1995. Surveys were conducted in June- July1974 and 1975 (Fischer and Duncan 1976), July 1980 (Gunn and Decker 1984), July-August 1995 (Gunn and Dragon 1998), April-May 1996 (Miller 1997), April 2004 and 2005 (Jenkins et al. 2011), and August 2016. Error bars are not shown and are not available for all estimates. ........ 16 Figure 6. Population trends for muskoxen on Prince of Wales, Somerset, and Russell islands, showing an increase from the 1970s and a gradual decline since the mid-1990s.Surveys were conducted in June-July1974 and 1975 (Fischer and Duncan 1976), July 1980 (Gunn and Decker 1984), July-August 1995 (Gunn and Dragon 1998), April-May 1996 (Miller 1997), April 2004 and 2005 (Jenkins et al. 2011), and August 2016 (this report). Error bars are not shown and are not available for all estimates. ............................................................................................................. 17 Figure 7. Incidental observations, Aug 5-23 2016, and flight lines for an aerial survey of Prince of Wales and Somerset islands. Some track lines are incomplete due to loss of satellite coverage. A total of 34 polar bears were observed, including 5 family groups. Some beluga pods were more than 60 individuals with many calves,