Reducing UK emissions Progress Report to Parliament June 2020 Reducing UK emissions Progress Report to Parliament Committee on Climate Change June 2020 Presented to Parliament pursuant to Section 36(1) of the Climate Change Act 2008. This report was laid before Parliament on 25 June 2020 and is available online at: www.theccc.org.uk/publications 2 Reducing UK emissions: Progress Report to Parliament | Committee on Climate Change © Committee on Climate Change Copyright 2020 The text of this document (this excludes, where present, the Royal Arms and all departmental or agency logos) may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium provided that it is reproduced accurately and not in a misleading context. The material must be acknowledged as Committee on Climate Change copyright and the document title specified. Permission from copyright holders must be sought before any photographs are reproduced. You can download this publication from www.theccc.org.uk/publications All enquiries related to this publication should be sent to: [email protected] 3 Acknowledgements The Committee would like to thank: The team that prepared the analysis for this report. This was led by Chris Stark and Mike Thompson and included Tom Andrew, Owen Bellamy, Kathryn Brown, Ellie Davies, Adrian Gault, Neil Grant, Aaron Goater, Rachel Hay, Mike Hemsley, Robbie Herring, Jenny Hill, David Joffe, Ewa Kmietowicz, Jake Langmead-Jones, Harry Lightfoot Brown, Cheryl Mackenzie, Richard Millar, Chloe Nemo, Simon Rayner, Richard Taylor, Indra Thillainathan, and Emma Vause. Other members of the Secretariat who contributed to this report: Jo Barrett, Marili Boufounou, Tom Dooks, Brendan Freeman, Gemma Holmes, James Lees, Louise Marix-Evans, Charles Odunuga, Andrew Russell, Penny Seera, David Style, Sean Taylor and Terri Wills. A number of organisations and stakeholders for their support, including the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy; the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs; the Department for Transport; Pete Betts, Expert Adviser to the Committee; the CCC's Advisory Group on the Costs and Benefits of Net Zero, which was led by Prof. Paul Ekins (UCL) and included Mallika Ishwaran (Shell), Rain Newton-Smith (CBI), Philip Summerton (Cambridge Econometrics), Prof. Karen Turner (University of Strathclyde) and Dimitri Zenghelis (UCL) with input from Prof. Nick Robins (LSE); Prof. John Barrett (University of Leeds) and Dr Diana Ivanova (University of Leeds). A wide range of stakeholders who engaged with us or met with the Committee bilaterally. 4 Reducing UK emissions: Progress Report to Parliament | Committee on Climate Change Contents The Committee 8 Foreword 11 ________________________________________________________________ Executive Summary 12 Building a resilient recovery from the COVID-19 crisis 14 Taking strong UK climate governance to COP26 16 The last 12 months: progress since the Net Zero target was set 18 The year ahead: defining the UK's climate credentials 20 Next steps 23 ________________________________________________________________ Recommendations by department 24 ________________________________________________________________ Chapter 1: A review of the climate challenge after COVID-19 48 1. COVID-19 and the wider context for delivering Net Zero 49 2. The Net Zero target 52 3. COP26 59 4. This report 60 ________________________________________________________________ Chapter 2: Progress since 2008 62 1. Global progress towards tackling climate change 63 2. Progress in reducing UK territorial emissions 72 3. Progress in reducing UK consumption emissions 81 4. Progress reducing emissions in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland 86 ________________________________________________________________ Contents 5 Chapter 3: Lessons learned since 2008 90 1. Success is attainable and can be rapid, provided the foundations are in place 93 2. Direction must be clear and policies must be investable 95 3. Enabling measures are important, with new challenges approaching 96 4. Multiple Government departments must work together 97 5. Fairness must be a key part of policy design 98 6. Contingency and flexibility are needed – not everything will work 99 7. National, local and international policy are all needed and can provide good examples 100 8. The UK can influence international decarbonisation 102 ________________________________________________________________ Chapter 4: Progress on emissions, indicators and policy in the last year 104 1. Summary of emissions reductions in the last year 106 2. Key indicators of progress 109 3. Summary of overall policy developments 112 ________________________________________________________________ Chapter 5: Planning a resilient recovery 126 1. Net Zero by 2050 and adaptation remain scientific, economic and social imperatives 128 2. A new context for tackling climate change 130 3. The economics of a resilient recovery 141 4. Principles for a resilient recovery 144 5. Climate policies to deliver a resilient recovery 147 6. International recovery 159 ________________________________________________________________ Chapter 6: What is needed now – UK climate policy 162 1. Net Zero needs to be integrated into all Government policy 164 2. Adaptation needs to be integrated into all Government policy 170 3. Departments must work together to deliver ambitious policy 175 ________________________________________________________________ 6 Reducing UK emissions: Progress Report to Parliament | Committee on Climate Change List of tables of recommendations by department Table 1. Cabinet Office and No. 10 24 Table 2. Foreign and Commonwealth Office, 26 the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy the Department for International Development & the COP26 unit Table 3. HM Treasury 27 Table 4. Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy 29 Table 5. Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs 34 Table 6. Recommendations for the Department for Transport 37 Table 7. Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government 39 Table 8. Department for Education 41 Table 9. Department for International Trade 42 Table 10. Department of Health and Social Care 43 Table 11. Ministry of Defence 44 Table 12. Home Office and Ministry of Justice 45 Table 13. Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport 46 Table 14. Department for Work and Pensions 47 List of tables of recommendations by department 7 The Committee The Rt. Hon John Gummer, Lord Deben, Chairman Lord Deben was the UK’s longest-serving Secretary of State for the Environment (1993 to 1997). He has held several other high-level ministerial posts, including Secretary of State for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (1989 to 1993). Lord Deben also runs Sancroft, a corporate responsibility consultancy working with blue-chip companies around the world on environmental, social and ethical issues. He is Chairman of Valpak Limited and the Personal Investment Management and Financial Advice Association. Baroness Brown of Cambridge FRS Baroness Brown of Cambridge DBE FREng FRS (Julia King) is an engineer, with a career spanning senior engineering and leadership roles in industry and academia. She currently serves as Chair of the CCC’s Adaptation Committee; non-executive director of the Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult; and Chair of the Carbon Trust. She was non-executive director of the Green Investment Bank, she led the King Review on decarbonising transport (2008). She is a Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering and of the Royal Society, and was awarded DBE for services to higher education and technology. She is a crossbench Peer and a member of the House of Lords European Union Select Committee. Professor Keith Bell Professor Keith Bell is a co-Director of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC), a Chartered Engineer and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh. He has been at the University of Strathclyde since 2005, was appointed to the Scottish Power Chair in Smart Grids in 2013 and has been involved in energy system research in collaboration with many academic and industrial partners. He has a number of additional roles including with the Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult, The IET Power Academy and the Conseil International des Grands Réseaux Electriques (CIGRE). Keith has also advised the Scottish Government, Ofgem, BEIS and the Government of Ireland on electricity system issues. 8 Reducing UK emissions: Progress Report to Parliament | Committee on Climate Change Professor Nick Chater Nick Chater is Professor of Behavioural Science at Warwick Business School. He has particular interests in the cognitive and social foundations of rationality, and applying behavioural insights to public policy and business. Nick is Co-founder and Director of Decision Technology Ltd, a research consultancy. He has previously held the posts of Professor of Psychology at both Warwick University and University College London (UCL), and Associate Editor for the journals Cognitive Science, Psychological Review, Psychological Science and Management Science. Professor Piers Forster Professor Forster is Director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate and Professor of Physical Climate Change at the University of Leeds. He has played a significant role authoring Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, and is a coordinating lead author role for the IPCC’s sixth assessment report. Professor Forster established the forest protection and research charity, the United Bank of Carbon, and has a number of roles advising industry, including