UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO Electoral Institutions and Information Shortcuts: The Effect of Decisive Intraparty Competition on the Behavior of Voters and Party Elites A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Melody Ellis Valdini Committee in charge: Professor Matthew Shugart, Chair Professor Lisa Baldez Professor Shaun Bowler Professor Maria Charles Professor Karen Ferree Professor Samuel Popkin 2006 Copyright Melody Ellis Valdini, 2006 All rights reserved. The dissertation of Melody Ellis Valdini is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm: _________________________________________________ _________________________________________________ _________________________________________________ _________________________________________________ _________________________________________________ _________________________________________________ Chair University of California, San Diego 2006 iii DEDICATION In recognition of his never-ending support, generosity, care, and love, this dissertation is dedicated to the sweetest person I’ve ever known, Andy Ellis Valdini. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Signature Page ...............................................................................................................iii Dedication...................................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents............................................................................................................ v List of Figures................................................................................................................ vi List of Tables................................................................................................................ vii Acknowledgements...................................................................................................... viii Vita................................................................................................................................ ix Abstract ....................................................................................................................... xiv Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2: The Signal of Gender: The Impact of Electoral Rules on the Voters’ use of Information Shortcuts.................................................................................................... 12 Chapter 3: The Fluid Effects of Information Shortcuts: An Analysis of the Consequences of Corruption and the Electoral System .................................................. 36 Chapter 4: The Strategic Use of Information Shortcuts: The Impact of Electoral Rules on Candidate Selection by Parties ................................................................................. 55 Chapter 5: What a Difference an Electoral System Makes: A Case Study Analysis of Ireland and Spain .......................................................................................................... 76 Chapter 6: Conclusion................................................................................................. 114 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Exact replica of ballot used to elect the lower house in Ireland ...................... 5 Figure 1.2: Ballot used to elect the parliament of Portugal............................................... 7 Figure 2.1: The percentage of women legislators elected in pre-reform Italy compared to that of post-reform Italy ............................................................................................ 24 Figure 2.2 The percentage of women legislators elected in pre-reform Japan compared to that of post-reform Japan........................................................................................... 26 Figure 2.3: Effect of decisive intraparty preference vote on the change in the percentage of women legislators.................................................................................... 30 Figure 3.1: Effect of presence and absence of corruption on the change in the percentage of women in the legislature.......................................................................... 44 Figure 4.1: The logic of the indirect test of information shortcuts.................................. 62 Figure 5.1: Percentage of respondents who agree with the statement: “on the whole, men make better political leaders than women,” by country .......................................... 80 Figure 5.2: Percentage of women in the lower houses of Spain and Ireland over time.... 85 Figure 5.3: Change in the percentage of women elected to the lower house in Ireland under different corruption contexts................................................................................ 95 Figure 5.4: Change in the percentage of women elected to the lower house in Spain under different corruption contexts.............................................................................. 101 Figure 5.5: Percentage of women candidates holding the top list rank under different corruption contexts...................................................................................................... 105 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Presence of decisive intraparty preference vote, by country .......................... 28 Table 3.1: Regression Results: Intraparty Competition and the Representation of Women in the Legislature ............................................................................................. 47 Table 3.2: Predicted Values and 95% Confidence Intervals for Table 3.1 ...................... 48 Table 4.1: Comparison of mean percentage of women on lists by electoral system........ 65 Table 4.2: Comparison of mean percentage of women on lists by electoral system, Ireland Removed........................................................................................................... 66 Table 4.3: Ordinary least squares regression of percentage of women on lists by electoral system............................................................................................................. 68 vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Without my committee members, this project would have suffered greatly. Thus, my eternal thanks for the time and effort given by Lisa Baldez, Shaun Bowler, Maria Charles, Karen Ferree, and Sam Popkin. Their suggestions and encouragement were fundamental to the completion and to the quality of this dissertation. And of course, many thanks go to my chair, Matthew Shugart. I feel very lucky that I had the opportunity to work with and learn from a scholar of his quality, and I am tremendously thankful for the many hours he spent reading drafts and chatting about electoral systems at the Solana Beach office. Needless to say, both this project and I benefited greatly from his guidance. Several professors did not have a formal role in this dissertation, but were there for me at critical moments with advice and suggestions - my thanks go to them as well: Kathy Dolan, Michael Hiscox, Steve Stambough, Karen Shelby, and Thad Kousser. Also, many thanks to the triple threat- Adam H., Mike D., and Adam Y. Their creativity and style, not to mention their words of wisdom, were frequent sources of inspiration for me. My parents have all been tireless sources of support and encouragement, and I could not have finished this project without their help. Mo, To, Janna, Dad, and Mom - thank you all so much. And finally… I have met so many amazing, fascinating people during the past seven years, and I am proud to call several of them my friends. They have all been crucial sources of support, and have provided daily examples of the kind of scholar and friend that I aspire to be. Many thanks and big hugs for: Mike K., Nancy L., Chris A., Emily B., Kathleen C., Carew B., and Jessica T. viii VITA 1997-98 University of Sussex, Brighton, England Year of study through U.C. Education Abroad Program 1999 University of California, Riverside, Riverside, CA B.A. in Political Science Graduated Cum Laude with University Honors, Departmental Honors 2002 University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA M.A. in Political Science 2006 University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA Ph.D. in Political Science, September 2006 PUBLICATIONS “Looking for Locals: Voter Information Demands and Personal Vote-Earning Attributes of Legislators under Proportional Representation,” with Matthew Soberg Shugart and Kati Suominen. American Journal of Political Science 49.2: 437-449. PRESENTATIONS "The Signal of Gender: The Impact of Electoral Rules on the Voters' use of Gender- Based Information Shortcuts." Presented at the American Political Science Association Meetings in Washington, D.C., 2005. “The Signal of Gender: The Effects of Electoral and Social Variables on the Use of Gender-Based Stereotypes.” Presented at the Frontiers of Women and Politics Research Conference (organized by the Women and Politics Section of the American Political Science Association) in Washington D.C., 2005. “The Context Matters: The Effects of Single Member vs. Multimember Districts on Diversity.” Presented as a poster at the American Political Science Association Meetings in Washington, D.C., 2005. With Jessica Trounstine. “Candidate Gender as an Information Shortcut: A Cross-National Analysis of the Effects of Political Environments.” Presented at an informal roundtable at the Midwest Political Science Association