Investment Reform Map for Mongolia A Foundation for a new Investment Policy & Promotion Strategy Mongolia Investment Policy and Agriculture Investment Promotion (IPAIP) Project Final Report June 2018 IN PARTNERSHIP WITH Investment Reform Map for Mongolia | 1 2 | Investment Reform Map for Mongolia Investment Reform Map for Mongolia A Foundation for a new Investment Policy & Promotion Strategy Mongolia Investment Policy and Agriculture Investment Promotion (IPAIP) Project Final Report June 2018 Investment Reform Map for Mongolia | 3 INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION 4th Floor, MCS Plaza Building, 4 Seoul Street, 210644 Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia Printed in July 2018 This work is a product of The World Bank Group’s Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment Global Practice. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank Group, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank Group, all of which are specifically reserved. 4 | Investment Reform Map for Mongolia TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................................ i List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. iii List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ iv Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................................... v Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 11 Chapter 1. Investment Performance and Potential ....................................................................... 15 I. Overview of Mongolia’s investment performance ....................................................... 15 II. Mongolia’s openness to trade and integration to global and regional value chains ..... 20 III. Assessment of Mongolia’s investment potential ........................................................ 22 IV. Policy directions ........................................................................................................ 36 Chapter 2. Legal and Regulatory Framework on Investment ....................................................... 39 I. Investment Entry: Restrictions to foreign participation in the local economy .............. 39 II. Investment Climate constraints play a role ................................................................. 45 III. Investment Protection: International and domestic legal framework ......................... 51 IV. Recommendations .................................................................................................... 57 Chapter 3. Institutional Framework for the Promotion of Investment ......................................... 59 I. Assessment of investment promotion in Mongolia ...................................................... 59 II. Recommendations ..................................................................................................... 63 Chapter 4. Formulation of an Investment Policy Statement and Reform Action Plan .................. 67 I. An investment policy statement for Mongolia ............................................................. 67 II. Suggested reform action plan ..................................................................................... 69 Annex A: Analysis of Economic Complexity............................................................................... 72 Annex B: Findings of Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2017 ..................................... 76 Annex C: Analysis of Major BITs signed by Mongolia ................................................................ 78 Annex D: Good Practice Institutional Arrangements and Frameworks for Investment Promotion 81 The importance of putting in place the right institutional arrangements to support investment policy and promotion ............................................................................... 81 Good practices in national FDI promotion frameworks .............................................. 81 The roles of ‘lead’ investment promotion agencies.......................................................83 Investment Reform Map for Mongolia | 5 LIST OF ACRONYMS ASEAN Agreement of South East Asian Nations BEFI Business entity with foreign investment BIT Bilateral Investment Treaty BoP Balance of Payment BRI Belt and Road Initiative DB Doing Business DFIRR Department of Foreign Investment Regulations and Registration DSU Dispute Settlement Understanding DVA Domestic Value Addition EAP East Asia Pacific ECI Economic Complexity Index EPA Economic Partnership Agreement EU European Union FDI Foreign Direct Investment FET Fair and Equitable Treatment FIFTA Foreign Investment and Foreign Trade Agency FIL Foreign Investment Law FTA Free Trade Agreement GATS General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GCF Gross Capital Formation GDP Gross Domestic Product GET Global E-commerce Talent GoM Government of Mongolia GSP Generalized System of Preferences GVCs Global Value Chains HHI Herfindahl-Hirschman Index ICSID International Center for the Settlement of Investment Disputes IIA International Investment Agreement IMA Invest Mongolia Agency IPAIP Investment Policy and Agriculture Investment Promotion IPAs Investment Promotion Agencies IPC Investor Protection Council 6i | | Investment Reform Map for Mongolia IPS Investment Policy Statement IRM Investment Reform Map ISDS Investor-State dispute settlement MAI Multilateral Agreement on Investment MFN Most Favored National MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MIL Mongolia Investment Law MoE Ministry of Economy MoFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs MoFALI Ministry of Food, Agriculture, and Light Industry M&E Monitoring and Evaluation NDA National Development Agency NQI National Quality Infrastructure NT National Treatment OECD Organization for the Economic Cooperation and Development OSS One-stop-shop PCI Product Complexity Index PIP Public Investment Plan PTA Preferential Trade Agreement RCEP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership SEFIL Strategic Entities Foreign Investment Law SIRM Systemic Investor Response Mechanism SCM Subsidies and Countervailing Measures SOE State-owned enterprise TRIMs Trade Related Investment Measures UNCTAD United Nations Conference for Trade and Development US United States USD U.S. dollar WIR World Investment Report WBG World Bank Group WTO World Trade Organization Investment Reform Map for Mongolia | 7ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Mongolia’s inward FDI inflows (US$ billion, 2000-2017) ........................................15 Figure 2. FDI flows to GDP ratio (%): Mongolia vs. lower middle-income countries (1990-2015) and FDI performance index (Mongolia vs benchmarks, 2001-2015) ........................16 Figure 3. Stock of FDI as % of GDP (2015) and stock of FDI % of GDP for benchmark countries ..................................................................................................................17 Figure 4. Stock of FDI (by source countries; 2017) .................................................................17 Figure 5. FDI concentration: Herfindahl index (by FDI source country, 2012) ........................18 Figure 6. Mongolia: FDI by sector (2017) ...............................................................................19 Figure 7. Mongolia: FDI Typology (percentage; 2012-2016) ...................................................19 Figure 8. Mongolia: GVC integration (2014) ..........................................................................21 Figure 9. Results of the Agribusiness Sector Scan ....................................................................24 Figure 10. China imports of meat products ...............................................................................25 Figure 11. Pillars of a comprehensive linkages program ............................................................31 Figure 12. Mongolia’s export destinations (including China) ....................................................32 Figure 13. Mongolia’s export destination (excluding China) .....................................................33 Figure 14. Exports to Japan, 2007-2015 ...................................................................................33 Figure 15. Mongolia exports of Electronic Microcircuits, 2010-2014 .......................................34 Figure 16. A two-pillar approach as the foundation for a new FDI vision and strategy .............36 Figure 17. OECD FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index, 2016 .................................................40 Figure 18. OECD FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index by sector, 2016 ...................................41