Natick: Our Community Yesterday and Today Prepared by: Table of Contents Sponsoring Board Statements..................................................................................... 4 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 5 Strategic Planning Overview........................................................................................ 5 Intent of this document ................................................................................................ 7 Town History and Context ........................................................................................... 8 Geo-physical and Regional Setting ........................................................................... 10 Population and Housing ............................................................................................. 12 Demographics and Housing Demand........................................................................ 12 Housing Supply Inventory.......................................................................................... 20 Housing Affordability.................................................................................................. 23 Commerce and the Economy..................................................................................... 31 Residential Workforce................................................................................................ 31 Job Base.................................................................................................................... 34 Town Government and Finances............................................................................... 39 Town Government ..................................................................................................... 39 Natick Municipal Finances ......................................................................................... 41 Physical Plan and Zoning........................................................................................... 50 Natural Resources and Historical Land Use .............................................................. 50 New and Proposed Development Since Buildout Analysis ........................................ 51 Proactive Changes to Local Zoning........................................................................... 51 Additional Implications of Smart Growth Zoning ........................................................ 52 Recreation and Cultural Amenities............................................................................ 53 Recreational and Natural Resources......................................................................... 53 Arts and Cultural Resources...................................................................................... 54 Town Services ............................................................................................................. 56 Education................................................................................................................... 56 Public Safety.............................................................................................................. 58 Senior Services.......................................................................................................... 60 Traffic and Transportation.......................................................................................... 62 Journey to Work:........................................................................................................ 62 Transit........................................................................................................................ 64 Traffic......................................................................................................................... 65 Safety ........................................................................................................................ 66 Bicyclists and Pedestrians ......................................................................................... 68 Resources and External Funding Opportunities...................................................... 71 Plan Implementation Funding.................................................................................... 71 Additional Sources of Funding................................................................................... 74 Comments from Preliminary Focus Group Research.............................................. 77 Comments from the Natick 360 Business Forum..................................................... 79 Appendix...................................................................................................................... 82 APPENDIX – DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTION METHODOLOGY ............................... 89 UOverview.................................................................................................................... 89 UBaseline Projection Methods................................................................................... 90 Population.................................................................................................................. 90 Natick: Our Community Yesterday and Today 2 Regional Population Projection.................................................................................. 91 Municipal Level Population Projections ..................................................................... 91 Natick: Our Community Yesterday and Today 3 Sponsoring Board Statements This document was approved by the Planning Board on January 11, 2007, by the Conservation Commission on January 18,2007, and by the Board of Selectmen on January 22, 2007. The Finance Committee requested a change to the Town Government section of the report and voted to accept the report with this change on May 8, 2007. The School Committee accepted the change to the Town Government section and requested additional changes to the Demographics section of the document. Those changes have been made to the demographics section. On June 2, 2007 the School Committee voted to accept this document with the following additional statement: “The School Committee is pleased to accept this report with the exception of the demographic projections and related conclusions, suggestions, graphics, and overview items about a possible decline in school- age residents, and on the understanding that this statement will be included in the document. We strongly caution against these projections being used for budgeting policy decisions and especially school- planning purposes. No projections or forecasts can include every potential variable. These projections and forecasts, however, fail to account for potentially significant factors contained in the report itself. These excluded factors could change, or even reverse, the direction of Natick’s demographic trends and call into question the projections’ results. For example, the report says that “Considering only the demographic trends in school age population, demand for family housing in the coming decades may decline. Other factors, including the limited amount of new construction, relative housing prices, and the attractiveness of Natick to young families may mitigate this trend [p. 12].” Later, it says, “Changing housing stock (in 40B, 40R and HOOP developments discussed below) may lead to changes to future demographics (i.e., the developments may attract younger families to town) [p. 13].” And finally, it says, “[I]f Natick remains a desirable community in which to live, one would expect that when seniors move from their single family homes to other housing designed to meet the needs of the senior population, other families are likely to move into these homes [p. 15].” That is, the projections do not reflect the impact of changing housing stock, limited new construction, relative housing prices, the attractiveness of Natick to young families, or the likelihood that families may move into homes vacated by empty-nesters – all indisputable or likely realities, all important drivers of school-age population. The projections, therefore, are not suited for use in guiding policy regarding schools. Relying on these projections could lead to underestimating future school needs, an error that would benefit no one. We are most grateful to everyone who has participated in the Natick 360 process. We are especially appreciative of the efforts of the Strategic Planning Oversight Committee (SPOC), which has worked diligently and fairly to make this a document of which we can all be proud.” Natick: Our Community Yesterday and Today 4 Introduction Strategic Planning Overview Natick, along with many other communities in the region, faces serious challenges regarding growth, development and finance. The future will bring new proposals for growth and development, and the community will face difficult decisions about the types and level of services offered under increasing financial constraints. A long-range strategic plan developed through broad participation of community members, under the authority of elected and appointed boards will help Natick prioritize investment of limited resources in the context of a long-range vision for the town. It will also help identify outside funding sources to leverage tax dollars and increase civic participation in Natick’s local government. Natick 360 is the Town of Natick’s long-range strategic planning process. It is sponsored by, and run under the authority of, the Town’s Board of Selectmen, Planning