The Life Cycle Assessment of Cellulosic Ethanol Production in the Wisconsin and Michigan Agricultural Contexts: The Influence of LCA Methods and Spatial Variability on Environmental Impact Assessment By Julie C. Sinistore A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Biological Systems Engineering) at the UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON 2012 Date of final oral examination: 07/13/2012 The dissertation is approved by the following members of the Final Oral Committee: Douglas J. Reinemann, Professor, Biological Systems Engineering Robert P. Anex, Professor, Biological Systems Engineering Carol L. Barford, Associate Scientist, Sustainability and Global Environment Randall D. Jackson, Associate Professor, Agronomy Christopher J. Kucharik, Associate Professor, Agronomy Paul J. Meier, Associate Scientist, Engineering Physics, Energy Institute © Copyright by Julie C. Sinistore 2012 All Rights Reserved i I. DEDICATIONS To Aunt Joan for teaching me so many things like how to ride a bike and how to work hard. To Mr. Berger for all of the fatherly advice and for encouraging me to join a choir. To my dear Anthony for putting up with me all these years. To the dearly departed Dr. Joan Ehrenfeld of Cook College, Rutgers University and Dr. Josh Posner of UW-Madison. You are greatly missed, but your contributions to this world live on. To Hillary Colton for teaching me to make new mistakes. To the Kazmans for teaching me how to be a performer. To Mrs. McGinn and Mr. Smith for teaching me how to think critically and show, not tell, in writing. To Bonnie Berenger for introducing me to rigorous scientific research. To Dr. Greg Graffin for reminding me to raise my voice. To Francis Moore Lappé for inspiring me to care about the environment back in high school and reinvigorating my will to protect it. And last, but certainly not least, to Dr. George Clark for the Tabasco sauce bottles and because you rule. ii II. SPECIAL THANKS Committee Members: Doug Reinemann, Rob Anex, Carol Barford, Randy Jackson, Chris Kucharik and Paul Meier UW Faculty, Staff and TAs: Debby Sumwalt, Chris Elholm, Bill Bland, Karyn Biasca, Emily Stanley, Pat Eagan, Pat Walsh, Beverly Taylor, Bill Provencher, Luciana Moscoso Boedo, Mike Bell, Jonathan Foley, John Norman, Judith Harackiewicz, Stephen Powers, Chris Solomon, Teri Balser, William Beam, Birl Lowery, Philip Barak, Rick Wayne, I.M. Isaacs, Charles Burnette, Xuejun Pan, Gloria Mari-Beffa, Mike Lock, Ravikumar Prathivadi, Colin Hackbarth, Sigurd Angenent, Anna Saputura, Nicola Ferrier, Richard Shaten, Debra Deppeler, Leslie Watkins, Scott Sanders, Leslie Smith, David Dynerman, Marty Kanarek, Mario Trujilo, Franklin Miller, Ajit Naik and Gunasekaran Sundaram. Rutgers Faculty, Staff and TAs: Kristen Goodrich, Zane Helsel, Priscilla Hayes, Tom Gianfagna, Doc Hamilton, Doc Locandro, Jay Kelly, David Ehrenfeld, Daniel Gimenez and Tim Casey. Family and Friends: Grandma, Mom, Aunt Pam, Uncle Mark, Edgar, Jenny, Erin, Paul and Judy, Deborah Paulsen, Kristen Radecsky, Naveen VK, John Foster, Kat Farley, Aaliyah Green, Stacey Kennealy, Erica Foote, Anthony D’Agostino, Regen Borchardt, Holly Lahd, David Duncan, Natalie Hunt, Hannah Gaines, Horacio Aguirre-Villegas, Patty Yanez, Simone Kraatz, Thais Passos Fonseca, Sonia Ares Gomez, Alex Lyon, Laurel Gutenberg, Mary Saunders, Kiera Mulvey, Andrew Barrett, Rachel Mallinger, Martha Rideout, Katelin Holm, Jennifer Blazek, Herika Kummel, Nate Bard, Chris and Leslie Anderson, Carl Wahl, Jeff Sensei, Maria Sensei, Barb Sensei, Jane Sensei, John Sensei, Joanna, Sarah, Jared, Kian and Elena, all the folks at East Madison Karate and Aikido of Madison and anyone else who has ever been a friend to me! Collaborators: The GLBRC, César Izaurralde, David Manowitz, Xuesong Zhang, Mac Post, Shujiang Kang, Pragnya Eranki, Bryan Bals, Tim Meehan, Sarynna Lopez, Bruce Dale, John Greenler, Sara Krauskopf, Steve Slater, David Pluymers and all the staff at the GLBRC. Other Influences and Essential Partners: Andreas Kapsalis, Enya, the sounds of nature, farmer’s markets, the number eight, if/then and concatenate statements and keyboard shortcuts. I could not have done this without all of you! iii III. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Dedications ................................................................................................................................... i II. Special Thanks ........................................................................................................................... ii III. Table of Contents ..................................................................................................................... iii IV. List of Figures .......................................................................................................................... vi V. List of Tables ............................................................................................................................ ix VI. Dissertation Abstract ............................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1. Introduction ...........................................................................................................1 1.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................1 1.2. Introduction to Life Cycle Assessment .........................................................................3 1.3. Introduction to Cellulosic Ethanol Production .............................................................7 1.4. Challenges in Cellulosic Ethanol Production .............................................................12 1.5. Dissertation Objectives and Format ............................................................................14 1.6. References ...................................................................................................................17 CHAPTER 2. Applying Life Cycle Assessment to low carbon fuel standards – How allocation choices influence carbon intensity for renewable transportation fuels .....21 2.1. Publication and Contribution Details ..........................................................................21 2.2. Abstract .......................................................................................................................22 2.3. Introduction and Background .....................................................................................23 2.4. Methods.......................................................................................................................28 2.4.1. System description and boundaries ..............................................................30 2.4.2. Process steps and emissions estimation .......................................................33 2.4.3. Allocation approaches ..................................................................................37 2.5. Results .........................................................................................................................43 2.6. Discussion ...................................................................................................................56 2.7. References ...................................................................................................................60 CHAPTER 3. Methodological review of recent ethanol production studies and recommendations to facilitate comparison ....................................................................66 3.1. Publication and Contribution Details ..........................................................................66 3.2. Abstract .......................................................................................................................67 3.3. Introduction and Background .....................................................................................68 iv 3.4. Methods.......................................................................................................................72 3.5. Results and Discussion ...............................................................................................84 3.5.1. Functional unit .............................................................................................84 3.5.2. System boundary ..........................................................................................88 3.5.3. Allocation .....................................................................................................95 3.5.4. Impact category metrics .............................................................................101 3.6. Conclusions ...............................................................................................................105 3.7. References .................................................................................................................110 CHAPTER 4. Life Cycle Assessment of switchgrass and corn stover ethanol production in the Wisconsin and Michigan agricultural contexts.....................................................117 PART 1. LCA of Switchgrass Cellulosic Ethanol Production: Testing LCA results for sensitivity to spatial variability ...............................................................................117 4.1. Publication and Contribution Details ........................................................................117 4.2. Abstract .....................................................................................................................120