GEORGE W. BUSH AND ASIA: A MIDTERM ASSESSMENT Edited by Robert M. Hathaway and Wilson Lee | i | Asia Program GEORGE W. BUSH AND ASIA: A MIDTERM ASSESSMENT Essays by: Andrew J. Bacevich Kurt M. Campbell Nayan Chanda Catharin E. Dalpino Harry Harding Frank S. Jannuzi James A. Kelly Henry R. Nau Janne E. Nolan Jonathan D. Pollack Hilton L. Root Edited by: Robert M. Hathaway Wilson Lee ©2003 Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, D.C. www.wilsoncenter.org Cover Photographs courtesy of the White House WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS LEE H. HAMILTON, DIRECTOR BOARD OF TRUSTEES Joseph B. Gildenhorn, Chair; David A. Metzner, Vice Chair. Public Members: James H. Billington, Librarian of Congress; John W. Carlin, Archivist of the United States; Bruce Cole, Chair, National Endowment for the Humanities; Roderick R. Paige, Secretary, U.S. Department of Education; Colin L. Powell, Secretary, U.S. Department of State; Lawrence M. Small, Secretary, Smithsonian Institution; Tommy G. Thompson, Secretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Private Citizen Members: Joseph A. Cari, Jr., Carol Cartwright, Donald E. Garcia, Bruce S. Gelb, Daniel L. Lamaute, Tamala L. Longaberger, Thomas R. Reedy WILSON COUNCIL Bruce S. Gelb, President. Diane Aboulafia-D'Jaen, Charles S. Ackerman, B.B. Andersen, Cyrus A. Ansary, Charles F. Barber, Lawrence E. Bathgate II, John Beinecke, Joseph C. Bell, Steven Alan Bennett, Rudy Boschwitz, A. Oakley Brooks, Melva Bucksbaum, Charles W. Burson, Conrad Cafritz, Nicola L. Caiola, Raoul L. Carroll, Scott Carter, Albert V. Casey, Mark Chandler, Peter B. Clark, Melvin Cohen, William T. Coleman, Jr., Michael D. DiGiacomo, Sheldon Drobny, F. Samuel Eberts III, J. David Eller, Mark Epstein, Melvyn J. Estrin, Sim Farar, Susan Farber, Joseph H. Flom, John H. Foster, Charles Fox, Barbara Hackman Franklin, Norman Freidkin, Morton Funger, Gregory M. Gallo, Chris G. Gardiner, Eric Garfinkel, Steven J. Gilbert, Alma Gildenhorn, David F. Girard-diCarlo, Michael B. Goldberg, William E. Grayson, Ronald Greenberg, Raymond A. Guenter, Gerald T. Halpin, Edward L. Hardin, Jr., Jean L. Hennessey, Eric Hotung, John L. Howard, Darrell E. Issa, Jerry Jasinowski, Brenda LaGrange Johnson, Shelly Kamins, Edward W. Kelley, Jr., Anastasia D. Kelly, Christopher J. Kennan, Michael V. Kostiw, Steven Kotler, William H. Kremer, Raymond Learsy, Abbe Lane Leff, Perry Leff, Dennis LeVett, Francine Levinson, Harold O. Levy, David Link, Frederic V. Malek, David S. Mandel, John P. Manning, Jeffrey A. Marcus, Edwin S. Marks, Jay Mazur, Robert McCarthy, Linda McCausland, Stephen G. McConahey, Donald F. McLellan, J. Kenneth Menges, Jr., Philip Merrill, Jeremiah L. Murphy, Martha T. Muse, Della Newman, John E. Osborn, Paul Hae Park, Gerald L. Parsky, Michael J. Polenske, Donald Robert Quartel, Jr., J. John L. Richardson, Margaret Milner Richardson, Larry D. Richman, Edwin Robbins, Robert G. Rogers, Otto Ruesch, B. Francis Saul, III, Alan Schwartz, Timothy R. Scully, J. Michael Shepherd, George P. Shultz, Raja W. Sidawi, Debbie Siebert, Thomas L. Siebert, Kenneth Siegel, Ron Silver, William A. Slaughter, James H. Small, Thomas F. Stephenson, Norma Kline Tiefel, Mark C. Treanor, Anthony G. Viscogliosi, Christine M. Warnke, Ruth Westheimer, Pete Wilson, Deborah Wince-Smith, Herbert S. Winokur, Jr., Paul Martin Wolff, Joseph Zappala, Nancy M. Zirkin, Richard S. Ziman ABOUT THE CENTER The Center is the living memorial of the United States of America to the nation’s twenty-eighth president, Woodrow Wilson. Congress established the Woodrow Wilson Center in 1968 as an international institute for advanced study, “symbolizing and strengthening the fruitful relation- ship between the world of learning and the world of public affairs.” The Center opened in 1970 under its own board of trustees. In all its activities the Woodrow Wilson Center is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization, sup- ported financially by annual appropriations from Congress, and by the contributions of founda- tions, corporations, and individuals. Conclusions or opinions expressed in Center publications and programs are those of the authors and speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center staff, fellows, trustees, advisory groups, or any individuals or organizations that pro- vide financial support to the Center. | iv | TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 1 Robert M. Hathaway U.S.-East Asia Policy: Three Aspects 15 James A. Kelly Bush and Asia: Continuity or Change? 25 Andrew J. Bacevich American Policy in Northeast Asia: 35 An Emerging Bush Legacy? Janne E. Nolan Asia in American Grand Strategy: The Quadrennial 43 Defense Review and the National Security Strategy Harry Harding Learning by Doing: The Bush Administration 57 in East Asia Jonathan D. Pollack North Korea: Back to the Brink? 73 Frank S. Jannuzi Bush Administration Financial Policies in Asia 91 Hilton L. Root The Bush Administration in Southeast Asia: 103 Two Regions? Two Policies? Catharin E. Dalpino | v | Southeast Asia after September 11 117 Nayan Chanda Alliances or Security Community in Asia: 131 Which Way is Bush Heading? Henry R. Nau Still Searching for a Vision 143 Kurt M. Campbell Appendix A 154 Conference Agenda Appendix B 156 Excerpts from the Republican Party Platform, 2000 Appendix C 160 Secretary of State Colin Powell’s Remarks at the Asia Society Annual Dinner, June 10, 2002 | vi | INTRODUCTION ROBERT M. HATHAWAY Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Robert M. Hathaway is director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center. Prior to assuming his current position, he served for twelve years on the professional staff of the International Relations Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives, where he specialized in American foreign policy toward Asia. Dr. Hathaway has authored three books and numerous articles on U.S. foreign policy since 1933. he United States increasingly looks westward, across the Pacific, toward the vastness of Asia. American goods and capital flow T west, creating jobs for U.S. workers and profits for U.S. firms. The eastward flood of commerce from Asia is more impressive still; U.S. con- sumers seem unable to get enough of the automobiles, computers, toys, and T-shirts churned out by Asian factories. One hundred thousand American troops are based in Asia, keeping a wary eye on three of the spots usually described as among the world's most dangerous flashpoints— the Taiwan Strait, the Korean peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistani border. Asian students study in American colleges and universities in ever larger numbers, with many settling in the United States after graduation. What was once a trickle of Asian emigration to American shores has become a floodtide, as refugees from political repression and economic hardship alike look to America for new opportunities and a fresh start. To a degree unimaginable two generations ago, the United States has become a Pacific, even an Asian, country. The midpoint of George W. Bush’s presidential term offers an oppor- tune moment to take stock of the administration’s Asia policy. • What is the administration’s vision of Asia? • How does it conceptualize American interests in the region and the U.S. role in Asia? | 1 | Robert M. Hathaway • What have been the defining characteristics of the administration’s pol- icy toward Asia? • Its principal achievements? Its shortcomings? • To what extent have the events of September 11, 2001, shaped, dom- inated, or skewed the administration’s approach to the region? • Has the Bush administration correctly identified the most important issues on America’s Asian agenda? • Are there important gaps in the administration’s view of Asia? • To what extent does its vision of Asia parallel the vision held by the peoples and governments of the region? The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars hosted a day- long symposium on December 11, 2002, to explore these and similar questions. Administration officials, former policymakers, scholars, and analysts sought to step back from the debates of the moment and begin the task of placing the administration’s policies into broader perspective. This volume represents an effort to share with the larger community of Asia-watchers some of the conclusions offered at the Wilson Center con- ference. For the purposes of both the symposium and this report, “Asia” means East and Southeast Asia. This is an artificial and rather arbitrary definition, of course, and indeed, the Wilson Center has devoted considerable effort in recent years to encouraging scholars to study connections and interac- tions among all the regions of Asia. Nonetheless, any proper considera- tion of U.S. policy toward South and Central Asia over the past two years would inevitably introduce a set of issues that are different from, and in some instances peripheral to, the issues that have been most central to the administration’s approach to East and Southeast Asia. Rather than risk an analysis that becomes diffuse and unwieldy, we have opted for a more lim- ited geographical focus, while acknowledging the incompleteness of the picture that emerges. UNANTICIPATED CONTINUITIES In looking at the Asia policies of George W.Bush over the past two years, what is perhaps most striking—as a number of the essays here make clear—is the extent to which neither the expectations of Bush’s support- | 2 | Introduction ers nor the fears of his detractors have been met. Recall, if you will, what Candidate Bush and his closest associates during the 2000 presidential campaign had to say about Bill Clinton’s Asia policy, and how a President Bush would reorient the American approach toward Asia. For better or for worse, it has not worked out that way. A President Bush, the American voter in 2000 was told, would restore balance to America’s Asia policy by shifting away from Clinton’s China-centric approach. A Bush administration would revitalize the U.S.-Japan alliance and return it to its proper place as the cornerstone of American policy in the region.