The Scrutiny Big Debate How the Economic Downturn has Affected Peterborough Issues Paper – April 2010 The Scrutiny Big Debate Contents Introduction ...................................................................................................5 Overview of the Approach ...............................................................................6 Stage 1: Scope of the Review .....................................................................6 Stage 2: Methodology ................................................................................6 Stage 3: Key Issues ...................................................................................7 Stage 4: Final Report and Recommendations .............................................7 The Evidence of Recession .............................................................................8 Peterborough vs. Regional Context the Facts and Figures ...........................8 The Regional View ................................................................................8 Unemployment and the Recession ........................................................9 Peterborough and the Recession ..........................................................9 When will the recession end? ................................................................9 Environment Capital Scrutiny Committee ......................................................10 Introduction from the Vice Chair, Councillor David Day .............................10 What happened on the night....................................................................10 Issues to take forward for further work .....................................................12 Creating Opportunities and Tackling Inequalities Scrutiny Committee ............14 Introduction from the Chair, Councilor Paula Thacker MBE ......................14 What happened on the night....................................................................14 Issues to take forward for further work .....................................................16 Strong and Supportive Communities Scrutiny Committee ..............................18 Introduction from the Chair, Councillor Marion Todd .................................18 What happened on the night....................................................................18 Issues to take forward for further work .....................................................20 Sustainable Growth Scrutiny Committee .......................................................22 Introduction from the Chair, Councillor Michael Fletcher ..........................22 What happened on the night....................................................................22 Issues to take forward for further work .....................................................24 Next Steps ...................................................................................................26 Further information ......................................................................................26 2 3 The Scrutiny Big Debate Introduction The Big Debate for Peterborough in 2010 has involved an investigation by Scrutiny of how the economic downturn has affected the city in terms of its aspirations for growth, levels of crime, requirements to support vulnerable people and its credentials for environmental sustainability with particular reference to transport. We have been delighted at the level of involvement by our partners, the business community and the public at the four diverse events that we have held at different venues in Peterborough. The sincerity with which views have been expressed to us and the positive suggestions that have been made to improve community and business life in Peterborough are set out in this initial report. Scrutiny will now seek to investigate these issues over the coming months and submit recommendations for future action by the Council and its partners. We have already received some excellent feedback and we would like to thank everyone who has been involved in the Big Debate series of events. We firmly believe that through the contributions that we have received at our meetings we have achieved a clearer picture of the support and leadership that the people of the city are seeking during these challenging economic times. Councillor Marion Todd Chair, Strong and Supportive Communities Scrutiny Committee on behalf of the Chairs and Members of the respective Scrutiny Committees 4 5 The Scrutiny Big Debate Overview of the Approach Stage 1: Scope of the Review Stage 3: Key Issues (i) To examine the effect of the economic downturn on Peterborough by answering the following Each of the events provoked lots of discussion about how to support people who live and work in questions: Peterborough more effectively. These ideas will form the basis of the respective committees’ work programmes during 2010/11. • How should Peterborough counter the effects of the economic downturn to ensure delivery of the sustainable transport elements of the Local Transport Plan? • In light of both the current economic climate and finite resources how best can we ensure that vulnerable adults and children are supported now and in the future? Stage 4: Final Report and Recommendations • How has the economic downturn had an effect on the amount and type of crime in Peterborough? The key areas for potential improvement will be developed into recommendations and referred to the • How should Peterborough counter the effects of the economic downturn to minimise its impact on Council’s Executive for decision. the growth aspirations of the city? A final report will be developed during 2010/11. (ii) To make appropriate recommendations to the Council, Executive and other partners. Stage 2: Methodology Each of the Council’s four Scrutiny Committees conducted an in-depth investigation into one of the above questions with different events held over a series of evenings during February 2010 as follows: • The Environment Capital Scrutiny Committee met on Tuesday 2 February at Buckles Solicitors to look at future transport options for the city. • The Creating Opportunities and Tackling Inequalities Scrutiny Committee met on Thursday 4 February at Peterborough College of Adult Education to look at how vulnerable adults and children are being supported. • The Strong and Supportive Communities Scrutiny Committee met on Tuesday 16 February at the Key Theatre to look at the amount and type of crime in Peterborough. • The Sustainable Growth Scrutiny Committee met on Wednesday 17 February at the Town Hall to look at how the city can continue to grow and overcome the effects of the economic downturn. Each of the events was widely publicised through the local media, in the Council’s Your Peterborough magazine and its website. Posters were also displayed at various Council buildings across the City and for people unable to attend the events, there was an option to submit written evidence. 6 7 The Scrutiny Big Debate The Evidence of Recession Peterborough vs. Regional Context the Facts and Figures Unemployment and the Recession The following facts and statistics were provided by Dr Glenn Athey, Director, Insight East. The unemployment legacy of the recession will be significant with some key points to consider as follows: • Claimant unemployment rates are projected to peak in 2010 at 4.5 per cent in the East of England The Regional View and 6.3 per cent in UK – with rates in 2011 only a little lower. Prior to the recession: • In the previous two recessions in 1980 and 1990/91, unemployment rates remained high for several • There was a track record of long term economic growth years after the recession had officially ended. • High rates of employment and economic participation • Diverse economy – ICT, biotech, agri-food • In the case of the aftermath of the 1980 recession, unemployment rates peaked in Quarter 2, 1984, • 5.7m population in 2007 – projected to increase to 6.8m by 2026 – 2nd highest growth rate in UK. and reached a trough in Quarter 1 1990. Since the start of the recession: • After the 1990/91 recession, unemployment rates peaked in Quarter 1, 1993 and reached a trough in • Deep recession: The UK economy has contracted by almost 6 per cent since Q1 2008 Quarter 2, 2001. • Long recession: 6 Quarters = longest recession since records began • The persistence of unemployment after this recession is likely to be similar to previous ones. • Unemployment now 6.3 per cent in the region (UK=7.8 per cent), 186,000 officially unemployed High unemployment rates are likely to persist for five years or more. (recent small decrease) • Unemployed claimants – have doubled since June 2008 (116,616 in December 2009 – has been • The lessons from past recessions are that unemployment continues to increase even after the decreasing since September 2009) recession has officially ended. There are a number of reasons for this. One reason is that there is • Redundancies lower and stable – still happening, but fewer than Dec08-Feb09 peak spare capacity in the economy during a recession. Businesses tend to retain workers and reduce overtime or working hours. Therefore, when demand does pick up, they can use existing capacity The consensus is that the worst is over and recovery is around the corner, but recovery will be slow. The to meet this demand rather than recruit new workers. Another reason is that employers remain medium and long term impacts on the labour market, businesses, and other sectors will be significant. reluctant to recruit until they are satisfied that there is a genuine sustained